Point Blank – February 25
What now, for the Bulls...The Psychology of Athletes, #101 (Do the Magic have a new sense of purpose?)...Ed Cooley’s Bracketology…A Cyclone warning, on the Wednesday board…
And so much for Derrick Rose, in terms of this season, and perhaps longer. A third knee surgery in less than three full calendar years raises serious questions about just what kind of career he can have going forward. Of course our concerns are the more immediate future, like tonight, as -8.5 and 191 morphs to -7.5 and 188.5, and also to some major juggling in the Futures trading. And that leads to an inescapable reality – Rose simply has not been anything special in terms of production this season.
His final counts for this campaign will be the lowest minutes-per-game of his career, and a 40.7 percent success rate from the field that was far below his 45.3 standard. That extra step to get to the basket and finish was not quite there, and his Assist-to-Turnover ratio of 1.6-1 was significantly off of his career 2.2-1. In terms of comparative performance, some of the better metrics also bring him up far short of his past standards. At ESPN, John Hollinger’s calculations rate him as the #22 PG this season (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg), while “Real Plus Minus” brings him in at #25, of those playing at least 25 minutes per game. At Hoopstats.com, with a different methodology, he also checks in at #22 (http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/playerstats/15/2/eff). Want more fun stuff? The Bulls have out-scored opponents by 4.0 PP100 with Rose playing, but it is still 3.5 without him.
The more genuine question might actually be the psychological impact, which could well carry more weight than his physical abilities. And while that might appear to be a slam dunk, with a catalyst being lost and some upside absolutely missing, there is also the recent matter of Rose missing a practice last week, which mattered to the point that Tom Thibodeau had to address it publicly ("We handle that stuff internally. Obviously, we want a commitment made by everybody to the team. Any time there's a break like that, you're mindful of the circumstances and you got to give yourself plenty of time so if something does go awry you can still get back in time. So it didn't happen, hopefully he learned from it and we all can learn from it. But the point is you can't put yourself in that position.”), followed by one of Rose’s worst career performances in Friday’s loss at Detroit, when he was badly out-played by Spencer Dinwiddie (more on that in a moment). Three nights later, he shot 1-13 when matched up against Milwaukee’s Jerryd Bayless.
There is also the matter of the Bulls having grown rather accustomed to playing without Rose, positing a 113-79 record, including 7-4 this season. They can win with a tandem of Aaron Brooks/Kirk Hinrich (though the latter is Questionable to play tonight), and in fact may well exceed the market expectations over the next cycle. That will be the way to look in the immediate future, with the Sports Mediaverse almost assuredly going to over-play this in the days ahead.
Meanwhile in Orlando…
On paper, you don’t have to attach any meaning at all to Orlando being 4-2 SU under James Borrego. Beating the Lakers, Knicks and 76ers can happen by default; you can actually play poorly and still accomplish the task. But the Magic also handled New Orleans in double figures, and one of the two defeats came against Chicago by just a single point. Is there something genuine going on?
In yesterday’s column there was a focus on comments made by Reggie Jackson and Russell Westbrook, and how they reflected their own particular beliefs, which can translate into something on the court (while Jackson’s teammates struggled vs. Cleveland, he had 22 points, eight rebounds, and nine assists vs. only two turnovers in 35:09, turning in a +5; the Pistons were -14 in the 12:51 he sat out). Yes, professional athletes can be delusional in their cocoons, but their comments also reflect the reality that they envision. Which makes Orlando and interesting test case right now.
Here is how interim HC James Borrego has characterized what he wants to accomplish, in what is an open audition for the full-time post, after the Magic controlled Philadelphia in the paint on Sunday - "That's what we do. We want to win the paint every single night.” And then on Monday – “That's our standard. When you're on the floor, you defend every single night. We'll figure out the offense, but we're going to be a defensive team every night. I appreciate our players' effort. What they've done in a short period to turn their defense is a tribute to them, a commitment on their part to each other, to our team, to our organization. They want to win, and they understand it's going to take an elite effort defensively to get it done.”
That could be a rather ridiculous overstatement given how weak the competition has been since Borrego took over, but through those six games they have out-scored the opposition 290-186 in the paint, only losing that count once, by 42-40 at Washington. And the prospect exists that the team may actually be buying in.
From Victor Oladipo - "He's doing a great job for us. He's holding us accountable. But at the same time, he's teaching us and he's being patient with us and he's making sure that we realize what our roles are." Willie Green - "I've kind of been saying it all along: that the talent on this team, it didn't represent our record. We just needed to have the principles in place, and give credit to Coach Borrego and the staff. They're doing a great job of just holding guys accountable." And Channing Frye - "We bought into what J.B. wants. I think this is who we are.”
For Frye to already refer to his coach as “J.B.” might be one of those subtle positives in terms of players and a coaching staff bonding, which had not happened under Jacque Vaughn. Is it a false feeling based on some results that do not really matter? Or is this a real turning point? For a team that indeed has better talent than the record shows this bears watching, especially since they are still alive to make a run at a playoff spot because of how weak the bottom of the Eastern Conference is. Take a considered look in the games ahead; if the improvements are genuine, it will take the markets a while to react properly - for the full season the Magic are tied for #25 on defense and #26 in rebounding, so increased toughness and commitment in the paint will not show up statistically.
About Last Night NBA…
Having focused on Monday on how badly Dinwiddie had out-played Rose (link below), there should absolutely be some mention of the lower rungs of the Cleveland/Detroit box score last night – Dinwiddie went 0-4 in 9:16 of action, with two turnovers, and no rebounds, assists or steals. The Pistons were -7 during that short stint. He has missed all 10 shot attempts since that upset of the Bulls last Friday, and may well be back in the D-League soon.
About Last Night, NCAA…
The Monday recap column three weeks ago opened with the take “Villanova looks like a February Big East play-on” noting that special balance that could make the Wildcats much more dangerous than the markets would appreciate. But it has come time to re-visit that because there is another motivation in sight – could Jay Wright’s team now be in position for a run at a #1 seed?
Here is how Ed Cooley put it, after his Providence team got whipped 89-61 in Philadelphia last night - "Y'all are missing the boat. There are lot of Stevie Wonders and Ray Charles out there who don't appreciate what they're seeing. You can say it's a lack of star power, but what I saw was 15 stars on the other bench. It's a total lack of respect. ... Villanova is easily, in my eyes, the second No. 1 seed overall." Yes, Ed is allowed to get away with the Wonders/Charles reference because he is a classy guy, and it is easy to understand his meaning. And the seed (literally) has been planted in the minds of Wright and his team, with his own post-game take of “We have a chance to. There’s a lot of basketball left to play to do that, but we may have a chance to do it.”
This may change the approach for the Wildcats down the stretch – instead of merely taking care of business until the Big East tourney, there could be a heightened level of intensity and focus . That is something that bears watching not only in your pre-game analysis, but also in terms of Halftime and in-running opportunities.
In the Sights…
Sometimes a team needs a slap in the face to kick them into a higher gear, and that is what appeared to have happened to #782 Iowa State after the Cyclones turned in their worst defensive performance of the season in a 94-83 loss at Oklahoma a little over two weeks ago. Since then it has been a 3-0 SU and ATS roll over West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas, the latter being back-to-back road wins, and in the process that defense allowed only .94 PPP. Combine that defense with a superb offensive chemistry in which six players are averaging in double figures, four of them also having at least 50 assists, and beating this bunch in Hilton Coliseum, where there will be a sell-out crowd of 14,384, is something perhaps only Kentucky would be favored to do.
The problem for Baylor is that those zone defenses that Scott Drew has been so effective with, in what is largely a man-to-man conference, have not worked against Fred Hoiberg. Hoiberg is 7-2 ATS in their head-to-heads, beating the spread by 34 points across those nine games, including 4-0 SU and ATS on this court. And while the Bears did win 74-73 in Waco earlier, pay particular attention to how that one flowed – Baylor jumped out 16-1, but State clawed back to actually hold the lead until Kenny Cherry hit a jumper with 0:07 remaining (Georges Niang missed for the Cyclones on the final possession). This is a tough matchup for the Bears under any circumstances, but playing an ISU squad at the top of their game right now, and bringing the extra intensity of the revenge motive from that earlier defeat, could see this margin get into double figures.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Hoops Review
Tuesday: Sorting through some First Impressions…Objects in the 76ers rear-view mirror are not closer than they are…Stan Van Gundy adjusts the engine in Detroit…