Point Blank – February 24
Sorting through some First Impressions…Objects in the 76ers rear-view mirror are not closer than they are…Stan Van Gundy adjusts the engine in Detroit…
A lot going on in the NBA marketplace right now, as teams now get back into full swing after the prolonged All Star Break, and many new faces in new places require in-depth analysis. You don’t want to get caught using stale numbers, instead you want to be among the first to adjust properly, and taking advantage of what is stale out there. So let’s look at some of the first impressions for players that will make a difference on the Tuesday board, and then beyond…
Pistons/Reggie Jackson, Tayshaun Prince
Last Thursday there was a take on Jackson wanting out of Oklahoma City, and to be given a chance to start at the NBA level. But this move was not just good riddance by the Thunder; there was also the fact that the Pistons were ready to welcome him with open arms, the first time they had a physical presence at PG since perhaps the days of Chauncey Billups. So what happened in his debut vs. John Wall and the Wizards on Sunday? Jackson was so anxious to finally be starting that he got off to a simply disastrous start, missing his first eight FG attempts, and it impacted him so much that he was physically ill on the sidelines.
But then Jackson settled down and not only did his individual rhythm turn, he was the catalyst as the entire Piston game turned. Detroit dominated Washington 59-37 in the second half, and Jackson’s early stumbles turned into a respectable bottom line of 17 points, five rebounds and five assists over 30:17. Getting a run-out win certainly mattered for the psyche a team that not only can make the playoffs, but may actually be the favorites to move up to the #7 seed, and some of the post-game was worth filing away.
Start with Stan Van Gundy - "In the second half, he (Jackson) looked like the guy we traded for. He was attacking the basket, using his athleticism and making plays. I was really happy with him." And then this from Jackson - "Having my teammates and my coaches and the owner behind me started to make things a little easier in the second half.” Pay particular care to the precise words from Jackson, which can also be taken as a slap back at the Thunder. If he feels that he is at home, and the team is indeed welcoming him, that will make a difference in terms of the Pistons becoming a cohesive unit in the hunt for a playoff spot (yes, it can also be an athlete’s paranoia, but as long as he believes it, let it play out).
There is one other wrinkle that you can expect to see tonight – Tayhsaun Prince in the starting lineup. Prince’s best days are behind him, but he does add a level of veteran leadership that can matter in a playoff hunt, and also some moxie on the defensive end. He has not played in two weeks, which will impact the number of minutes he is on the floor, but Van Gundy was open about his thought process – “Rather than having one guy in the first unit and one guy in the second unit where we’re limited all the time, then we can come off the bench with guys who know more stuff. That’s my through right now, but I won’t make a decision for sure until after the walk-through tomorrow (Tuesday).” More on that in a moment…
Thunder/Enes Kanter, D.J. Augustin, Kyle Singler
No, there will not be an over-reaction to the dumping of dismal Denver on Sunday (you should refuse to reward anyone for their scoreboards against the Nuggets these days), except for something that can be connected a bit to Jackson’s feelings above – if the players felt that Sunday was important, then it was. Kanter was extremely productive in that win, with 20 points, 12 rebounds and three assists in just 26:22, and there is a lot of flexibility for a team that had been formerly short on that.
Russell Westbrook has dished assists on six of Kanter’s dozen made FGs through two games, and is open about the difference he can make - “He’s a big fella that likes to roll, and obviously he can finish. He can knock down the 15-footer as well so it’s a double threat for him. And we’re just going to create better chemistry as the season goes along.”
That is the upside. The downside is that there is no real evidence yet that Scott Brooks can handle such flexibility. Magnifying the responsibilities for Brooks is also the issue of trying to put a chemistry together now, and then having to re-do those designs when Kevin Durant and Steven Adams return, with those returns likely to occur separately. Yes, there is upside here, but will there enough season left to get all of these pieces on the same page?
Mavericks/Amar’e Stoudemire
Stoudemire scored 14 points in just 11:03 in Sunday’s win over Charlotte, getting off eight FG attempts and four FTs in that span. He can do that, and in fact creates some rather intriguing matchup prospects – how many big men coming off the bench in the current NBA can produce at the clip he is capable of? Now it is up to Rick Carlisle to figure out the various ways to use him.
Note that the low minute count is not all that significant – Stoudemire was already in the game in the first quarter. And while all of his minutes were at the #5 spot, which Carlisle said is the short-term plan, the prospects of him playing at #4, alongside Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler in a big front-court, will likely be entertained once he has played his way into shape. That could be fascinating. But for now Stoudemire could be extremely efficient offensively playing against over-matched opposing reserves, and could be among the more productive offensive players in the league in terms of Production-per-Minute down the stretch.
About Last Night…
One of the focus points here a couple of weeks ago was how Philadelphia had put together a respectable January run by slowing the tempo, and buying in on defense. That went away during the All Star break and has not returned, in what has been an alarming lack of effort on that end of the court in the first three games back.
76er Defense Post-Break
Projections: 96.3
Allowance: 109.3
PP100: 112.1
If you use the closing Side/Total to establish a market expectation, the 76ers have allowed a full 13.0 per game above that, despite facing Orlando, Miami and Indiana, three teams that are a combined 38 games under .500, and are #25, #26 and #18 respectively in season-to-date offense. As for that 112.1 allowance, the Timberwolves are dead last for the full season at 109.2.
What Philadelphia did over a span of about six weeks leading up to the break, going 8-13 SU and turning in a 17-4 to the Under in the process, may carry no particular relevance these days.
In the Sights…
There have been several takes over the past month on how much better #503 Cleveland was getting on defense, and in the first two games since the All Star break the Cavaliers have allowed an average of just 86 points (OK, call it the first “game and a half/Pro-Rated”, since results vs. the Knicks should be discounted in terms of weighting). Things will get even better when Kendrick Perkins becomes available, though that likely will not be until Thursday. But look for their focus on that end of the court to be a major factor again tonight, with a chance to move back into a first-place tie with Chicago in the Central Division.
The flip side of this equation also works. The Pistons came out of the break holding the Bulls to 91 and Wizards to 89, and Jackson will indeed be both a defensive and rebounding upgrade at PG. But the likelihood of Prince starting tonight also matters – he brings little on the offensive end, but can still guard and hit the boards, while also helping to set a slower pace. With 206 beginning to show this morning, up from 203.5, the markets may be a step behind these realities.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Hoops Review