Point Blank – November 18
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #11
The NFL Week that Was, and some key issues from those games that you can incorporate into your own portfolio to gain some major edges going forward.
Item: The Seahawks are underdogs to make the playoffs
The warning signals were sent out on the Seahawks a couple of times on this page over the last few weeks, and broken down in full detail on Friday (“About that Seattle DL” - /pregame-forums/f/14/t/1088315.aspx). In the first game without Brandon Mebane they were consistently beaten at the point of attack by Kansas City, with the Chiefs running for 190 yards at a 6.3 clip, #2 for them in yardage this season, and #1 per attempt. And that is on top of the pass defense alreaady being an issue, made clear in those Friday tables. There were no sacks of Alex Smith, and only the Falcons, Bengals and Raiders have a lower sack percentage for the season.
But now let’s set some perspective. Because that thin DL is not going to get any better (no one left on the streets to sign these days, with Travian Robertson not much of an answer), and now they also face playing without Pro Bowl C Max Unger (1.9 yards-per-play after he left on Sunday), the way that the standings and schedule lay out paint an ominous picture – the Seahawks are genuine underdogs to make the playoffs.
First, there is ground to make up. They are three games behind Arizona in the NFC West, and also trail Dallas and either Detroit/Green Bay by a game in the Wild Card chase. And that does not count being tied with a 49er team that might be better positioned to make a late-season run (more on that in a bit). Second is the fact that making up ground is going to be difficult. Seattle faces 9-1 Arizona twice, 6-4 San Francisco twice, 7-3 Philadelphia and a dangerous 4-6 St. Louis (more on that in a moment). The remaining three road games come against teams that are 13-2 at home. A 3-3 will not extend their season, and even a 4-2 may not.
Now about those 49ers…
Item: Aldon Smith was back, and better than you might think
From one statistical measure, the 49ers were major under-achievers on Sunday. If you go +4 in turnovers against a team like the Giants, you need to win the scoreboard by much more than they did. From another statistical measure, it would also appear that Smith’s return from suspension was only a marginal factor, since he did not record a tackle or a sack. But that all begs for perspective.
Smith’s presence was certainly felt by Eli Manning and the New York offense, to the tune of five interceptions and two sacks in 47 drop-backs. Smith was not making plays because he was double-teamed often, natural for a guy that has 42 sacks in 43 career games, and while he did register two somewhat official “hurries”, the door was opened wide for the rest of that pass rush. Take this, from Justin Smith, to heart - "He's going to change up the way teams protect against you. It's kind of like having that No. 1 receiver. You will roll coverage to him. You know they are going to roll the line toward him."
Smith’s own take? "I was able to get back there and put some pressure on the quarterback. As a result, some of those turned into interceptions and forced bad throws. I'm just glad I was able to get out there and help out." And he will continue to help – one of the keys down the stretch is the fact that he is only 25 years old, and has not had to go through the physical rigors of those first nine games. That freshness should make a difference against opposing linemen that are worn down.
As for the playoff chase, when you compare the San Francisco schedule to that of Seattle above, the 49ers have a clear advantage. There are games against the Redskins and Raiders that will be difficult to lose, in addition to hosting the Seahawks next Thursday, a favorable setting that catches Pete Carroll’s bunch with a tough quick turnaround off of physical Arizona. Now if only Colin Kaepernick and the passing game showed any progression (another dismal showing on Sunday).
Item: Classic Bill Belichick, and why you should be careful with those Jonas Gray/Cameron Fleming takeaways
The Patriots will garner a lot of attention this week, off of that dominating win over the Colts. But it might mean less than you think. The particular nature of that win may have been more of a “one-off” than something that can be relied on in the future. What it does show, yet one more time, is Bill Belichick’s marvelous ability to game plan for a particular opponent.
So RB Jonas Gray comes out of nowhere to rush for 199 yards and four TDs, and rookie OL Cameron Fleming was on the field for 37 snaps, almost all as an eligible receiver. By having six OL on the field at the same time, plus a power RB, they were able to hammer away at an under-sized Indianapolis defensive front. But before you get carried away with all that, note that it was nothing new.
Back on Week #2, the Patriots used six OL on 40 percent of the snaps in that grinder of a win at Minnesota, when Tom Brady only dropped back to pass 23 times out of 61 snaps. It was Stevan Ridley playing the power RB role, carrying 25 times for 101 yards and a TD. And it was a game that bagged me completely – I thought there was the birth of a new game plan for the Patriots, running more to manage clock and keeping Brady from taking hits. But after cashing an Under ticket that was focused on in an “In the Sights” take vs. Oakland the following week, it turned in to five straight Overs after that, as they went back to a much more open attack, with at least 30 pass attempts in each of them. So Sunday night was a return to something that they had in their arsenal, and felt would work against that Indy defense. And it did. But those 37 snaps for Fleming? He had not even played since the Monday night loss at Kansas City back on September 29. And who knows when he plays again.
You will read a lot from the Sports Mediaverse about the way the Patriots changed their stripes on Sunday night, but you may not see any of that on the field this week. Now they face a Detroit defensive front that leads the NFL in both fewest yards per game overland (68.8), and fewest per attempt (3.0). Which likely means Fleming is back to the bench, and all of those folks grabbing Gray for their Fantasy teams will be disappointed at how little a part he will be of the proceedings. Sunday was a great game plan, yet some will try to instead call it a great performance, and rate them as the league’s best team. But that would be wrong, because…
Item: Is there a way to defense Green Bay these days?
Probably not. Aaron Rodgers is playing QB at about as high of a level as it can be played, and here are the Packer first-half drives the past two weeks:
71 yards, 12 plays, TD
23 yards, 4 plays, TD
72 yards, 3 plays, TD
54 yards, 4 plays, TD
95 yards, 5 plays, TD
54 yards, 2 plays, lost fumble
32 yards, 6 plays, FG
75 yards, 7 plays, FG
88 yards, 13 plays, TD
80 yards, 6 plays, TD
80 yards, 10 plays, TD
That built a combined 72-6 lead that allowed them to coast the rest of the way, which prevents the full-game box scores form showing just how ruthlessly efficient they have been. But that is visible for everyone to see across the Marketplace, and it is unlikely that anyone will have missed it. But it is so visible that perhaps a major story is being lost in that glare. To wit…
Item: Clay Matthews moves around
While the Packers were rolling up and down the field against the Bears and Eagles like they were on skates in those first half dominations, the defense was allowing six points across those 60 minutes of action. Over the past two Sunday’s, they played the best First Half defense of any team in the NFL. They shut out all of those Chicago weapons in the skill positions, and they shackled Chip Kelly’s schemes. After intermission they were entitled to let up a bit, which is what you can do with such commanding leads, and it clouds the numbers a bit. But look through those clouds, because there is something going on that matters.
The Green Bay defense was a disappointment up to the bye week, leaving a particularly bad taste in that 44-23 loss to New Orleans, when the Saints rolled up 28 first downs and 495 yards. Dom Capers is a much better coach, and the available personnel also much better, than those results would show. So Capers went to work, and created a new “hybrid” position for Clay Matthews, making it much tougher for opposing offenses to locate him. That practice time was put to good use – with Matthews playing inside in a nickel defense that has become the Packer base, this unit has an entirely different dynamic.
The Packers have come up with nine sacks and seven takeaways in the two games in those new designs, returning two of the turnovers directly for TDs, despite substituting liberally and playing vanilla in the second half each time. It is not just about that offense right now.
Item: The Rams have beaten the 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks over the last five games
When teams make in-season changes that significantly impact their performance levels, like the Green Bay defense above, it means the savvy handicapper needs to be quick to adjust, isolating the statistics to best take advantage. That will be the case with the Packers going forward, and already has been with the Rams.
There were few bigger mysteries in the NFL in September than the inability of the Rams to get to opposing QBs. They were #3 in the NFL in both sacks and sack percentage LY, and with Gregg Williams bringing his aggressive schemes on board they figured to be even better in that category. But in a miserable 1-4 opening they managed only a single sack in 143 drop-backs, that coming vs. the lowly Tampa Bay offense. Where the hell was the rush?
Apparently it took time for those new schemes to set in, because since then that rush has been a terror. In one of the toughest schedule stretches any team will face all year, five opponents that are a combined 35-15, it has been 18 sacks, and it was that defense that was the catalyst for the three upsets pulled in that span.
Sunday’s counts will “only” show two sacks and two interceptions in 56 drop-backs by Peyton Manning, but those measurements sell the pass rush far short – they had Manning out of his comfort zone throughout, giving up a lone scoring drive to the league’s most potent offense, and never allowing a snap inside their own 28-yard line. Was it really only a matter of time for the players and playbook to mesh? Perhaps so – remember back to last Tuesday’s take about the Tampa Bay defense making major strides as the Lovie Smith coverage schemes are better understood, and the story in St. Louis has a similar arc. The following, from MLB James Laurinaitis, explains it quite well –
“The scheme is built so that if everyone is on the same page you can play really fast. Gregg (Williams) always says, ‘A slow correct decision is still a wrong decision.’ He doesn’t want you to be thinking, ‘Well, technically I’m supposed to be here.’ If you do that slowly he’s still going to grade you down because he wants you playing fast. I think the last few weeks we’ve been able to come in, play extremely fast, trust each other and know that we don’t have to be perfect. Let’s just be aggressive and physical. The light bulb is kind of switched on, but we have to keep that thing on. I don’t want it to (burn) out.”
Item: The Texans had 84 offensive snaps
Lovie Smith has now had time to coach “his” defense at Tampa Bay. Gregg Robinson is making that happen in St. Louis. But Sunday seemed like the most unlikely of settings for Bill O’Brien to unleash his offensive playbook. It was to be the first NFL start for QB Ryan Mallett, coming on the road, and without the security of Arian Foster to slow the game down by running between the tackles. Of course, who could even begin to think that O’Brien did not care about slowing the game down at all.
Of all of the various numbers that were generated in the NFL this past week, perhaps none was more shocking than the 84 plays the Texans ran in their 23-7 domination of Cleveland. Through the first nine games they had only averaged 61.8. The offense not only played fast but the played well – there were no sacks, only one turnover, and just two penalties. Rookie Alfred Blue gave indications of being a draft steal (a #6 pick) with 156 yards on 36 carries, and Mallett finished with a 95.3 passer rating on his 30 attempts.
It will not be that easy going forward, of course, because now opponents will be ready for a tempo that Cleveland was not prepared for, while injuries to the Browns LB corps (more on that in a moment) also mattered. But to play at that pace showed how much confidence O’Brien already had in him, and keep in mind that this is not their first rodeo – he also coached Mallett for one season at New England back in 2011. Another key was that it was not just O’Brien having confidence in his new QB, with the following from LG Ben Jones also worth filing away - “Ryan’s a guy that really motivates us. … We love the guy. He’s a very confident guy and we feed off that.”
Energy matters a lot to losing teams late in a season. The fact that Mallett brings an upside that Ryan Fitzpatrick does not possess could be big for the psyche of a team that also got Brian Cushing back on defense, and plays four of the final six games at home, with one of the two road trips a setting in which they will be favored at Jacksonville.
Item: Josh Gordon returns for the Cleveland, but…
It is not really a net plus for the Browns this week. While Gordon is desperately needed to stretch the field for a limited group in the skill positions, and should be of impact quickly (his mere presence forces defenses to adjust their schemes, even if he needs time to get in sync with Brian Hoyer), there is a problem on defense that may be worth more than the markets will project. Starting LBs Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard both went out with injuries against Houston, which helped the Texans to get into their offensive flow, and there is a chance that each could be out for the remainder of the season.
OK, so neither guy was heading to the Pro Bowl, although Dansby does lead the team in tackles. But losing those two at the same time can not help but create chemistry issues at the position, and further deplete a roster that is already without starting DE Phil Taylor, and reserve DEs Armonty Bryant and John Hughes. They are projecting rookie Barkevious Mingo to start in Sheard’s OLB spot, despite the fact that he is playing with a shoulder harness, but at this stage there are not many quality players left on the streets to sign.
The defensive front was nothing special when all hands were on deck, allowing 142.1 yards per game overland (#30) at 4.6 per attempt (#29). That group can be particularly vulnerable in a closing stretch that has four of the last six games on the road, and the combination of Gordon boosting the offense, and the defense taking a blow, could create value to the Over, especially after six straight Under tickets have cashed in Cleveland games.
Vegas (Monday’s with the Review-Journal)…
Those 84 Houston plays were part of the weekly Monday lunch review session, with the Las Vegas Review-Journal box score page laid out across the table. And this week the playbook called for more than just lunch – with college basketball around the clock, it also meant some carry-out to get through the cycle. When something like that is going on, it means time to head to Naked City Pizza, at 4608 Paradise Road (the sister location to the original, inside of Moon Doggie’s, at 3240 South Arville).
Naked City is the brainchild of Chris Palmeri, who left a position at a prominent Strip restaurant to go his own way, and do creative takes on the comfort food he grew up eating in Buffalo. He started the solo adventure with a small sandwich shop on Las Vegas Boulevard, and now has a chance to showcase his skills out of the Paradise kitchen, where a variety of specials routinely hit the board. Consider it a trattoria, not a pizza joint, though sandwiches and pizza are the staples.
If you are from upstate New York, this is where you can fill your hankering for a “Beef on Weck”, or a “Royal”, but Monday called for a “Ham Slaw”, while a carry-out pizza was being prepared to help get through all of those dribbles. Like all sandwiches that Palmeri offers it has his unique stamp, with a healthy portion of ham an provolone combined with a “slaw” of chopped tomatoes, both hot and sweet cherry peppers, lettuce, oregano and mayo, on a toasted roll.
It is when you order a pizza that the real fun for veterans of this industry sets in. They are baked in long rectangular pans, but if you do not want an entire one, you order a “Quarter Sheet” or a “Half Sheet”. Seriously. There have to be at least a few of you that know what those phrases mean. This time around it was a quarter-sheet “Chi-Town”, their riff on a Chicago hot beef sandwich, with marinated beef, mozzarella, roasted sweet peppers and chopped giardiniera. The last of which will be consumed around the time the Kentucky/Kansas halftime gets posted tonight.