Point Blank – November 14
About that Seattle DL; Using the “November” playbook; “Dribbling for Dollar$” begins; and a Silver Medal…
When you are told that DT Brandon Mebane is out for Seattle, it might not cause your handicapping pulse to accelerate, but it should. First, Mebane is good, a run-stuffer that was having the best season of his career. And while veteran Kevin Williams can be a capable replacement, at the age of 34 his best days are behind him. But the real issue is that with Williams moving up to the first unit, a DL that has began the season without much depth is now paper-thin. It also shows how one of the true keys to the 2013 dominance of the Seattle defense was a rather subtle one.
The Seahawks had a terrific rotation up front on the way to the Super Bowl, with no individual player having to be on the field for more than 57 percent of the snaps. That created fresh legs to get after opposing QBs, but it also meant the players did not generate high numbers, which makes it difficult to discern the sums of the individual parts. So when Red Bryant, Chris Clemons (both now starting with Jacksonville) and Clint McDonald (starting with Tampa Bay) all left in the off-season, it did not look as bad as it turned out to be. But their replacements have not been nearly as effective, forcing the likes of Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett to spend more time on the field, and it has had a significant impact, especially against the pass. Take a look at the comparisons, and it is rather startling -
2013 2014
PPG 14.4 (1) 21.2 (10)
QB PR 63.4 (1) 93.0 (22)
TD% 3.1 (4) 4.8 (18)
INT% 5.3 (1) 1.9 (22)
YPP 5.8 (1) 6.8 (9)
SACK% 7.7 (5) 4.0 (28)
The Seahawks have gone from being the best in the NFL across many of those key categories, to actually being a below average pass defense to this stage of the season.
Now there is yet one more body down, so instead of continually rotating fresh players, it is becoming a gut-out. Having lost Cassius March and Greg Scruggs to the IR, the current reserves at DE are the uninspiring and under-sized duo of Demarcus Dobbs (6-2/282), who has only played in one game this season, and has yet to record a sack since being drafted by the 49ers back in 2011; and O’Brien Schofield (6-3/260), who has nine tackles and no sacks in limited time. The only reserve DT on the roster is second-year player Jordan Hill, who has five tackles and no sacks in even less time than Schofield. And that is all, unless they re-sign Michael Brooks, who played in one game LY, and was cut back in August.
For as much as this defense has fallen from that Super Bowl run, it may get even worse the rest of the way. The starters are facing too much of a workload, and the reserves are a far cry from their predecessors. No team has a more difficult road slate over the remainder of the season (at Chiefs, 49ers, Eagles and Cardinals), so be prepared to adjust your power ratings for this defense much more than you are likely ready to. What they did in 2013 simply is not relevant, given how many key cogs that have been lost up front, and it could be at least another week without MLB Bobby Wagner as well.
In the Sights…
On Wednesday there was a general take on “November” football, and how you can use many of the particulars this time of the season brings to your advantage (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1086523.aspx). It even set the stage for Cal/USC last night, a rare case in which it was the big underdog that had more depth and could win the latter stages of the game, instead of the favorite. So as you move to Saturday those ideas can become a bigger part of your thinking, and in particular note that this board brings a Play-On and a Play-Against team in the same game, when Kentucky travels to Tennessee.
Kentucky is the target, with the young Wildcats having to play their eighth game in as many weeks, and the rigors of the SEC has won them down both physically and mentally, as they enter on an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS slide in which they have lost to the spread by 51 points. In three of those games a worn down defensive front has allowed over 300 rushing yards, and tired bodies do not get refreshed when there isn't any time off.
Meanwhile the Volunteers provide a sharp arrow to aim with, a young and improving team that has sights set on a bowl game, and has had two weeks to re-energize off of that confidence-boosting rally at South Carolina. New starting QB Joshua Dobbs had a case of the jitters early vs. Alabama, but once he settled in the Crimson Tide defense was on its heels much of the last three quarters, with Tennessee having a pair of 84-yard TD drives. The offense followed that up by going for over 300 yards both running and passing at South Carolina, topping that plateau before the overtime session. This could be one of those classic late-season settings of “two teams heading in opposite directions”.
Dribbling for Dollar$…
Today marks the beginning of the long and often very profitable ride across the NCAA hardwoods, with a library of edges available between now and the time they cut the nets down in Indianapolis next April. And of course many of them will be detailed here each day. Let’s start on the Friday board with an advantage that is subtle, but can be significant – the added value of the home court for teams that also host a football game this weekend.
The logic is simple – attendance will be higher than usual for these non-conference affairs, with many of the alumni making a weekend of it by attending both the basketball and football games. For the coaches it is a chance to put on a show for those alums, hoping to create a positive early buzz for the season ahead, and to also convince many of those fans to return for other games. Here is the list of teams playing tonight that could have a better crowd than you might expect (in rotation order) -
FLORIDA, GEORGIA TECH, ILLINOIS, KANSAS (although KU hoops fans may currently outnumber their football fans), ALABAMA, BRIGHAM YOUNG, UTEP, OREGON STATE.
And in conclusion…
Kudos to NBA commissioner Adam Silver, for a reasonable and thoughtful Op-Ed piece on legalizing Sports Betting in the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/14/opinion/nba-commissioner-adam-silver-legalize-sports-betting.html?_r=2). “Reason” and “thought” have not been major parts of those discussions in my lifetime, and it does help to shift the debate in the proper direction.