Saturday, August 30th, 2014
NEPOTISM
One of the great things about sports, as opposed to almost all other areas of life, is the lack of nepotism. It doesn't matter how many connections your parents have or how much money they make. If you can't hit a baseball you're not going to be playing center field for the Yankees. Unfortunately this refreshing departure from favoritism doesn't extend past the field of play. Example 1A: Alabama's new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. Lane's father is Monte Kiffin, the influential and legendary defensive coordinator who many believe is the greatest of his generation. I think it's safe to say it's highly unlikely Lane's career would have followed the same path had it not been for his father's influence and assistance. Since he was undeservedly made the head coach of the Oakland Raiders in 2007 he has essentially failed at every stop, including head coaching stints at the University of Tennessee and USC. Here's the most absurd thing about Lane Kiffin: He's an OFFENSIVE coach. If your father is one of the greatest defensive coordinators of all time why not learn from him and specialize in defense? Lane was too proud to follow in his father's footsteps, instead attempting to carve out his own identity. He was a terrible play caller at USC and now he is being handed the reins at Alabama. Why on earth would Nick Saban give him the job? That bring's us to our next definition.
ARROGANCE
There might as well be a picture of Nick Saban next to the word arrogance in the dictionary. Lane Kiffin is obviously a bad choice as offensive coordinator but because Saban is so arrogant he doesn't feel the normal rules apply to him. Saban has deluded himself into believing his program is so strong that it would be impossible for Kiffin to fail there. It's also terrible timing considering Alabama will be breaking in a new quarterback. Which brings me to my next point.
THE QUARTERBACKS
There is no denying quarterback is the most important position on the field in football.
Clint Trickett transferred from Florida State to West Virginia last season and didn't start right away because he was the learning the offense. He got his first start week 5 against Oklahoma State where he played well and WVU won. In that game though he injured his shoulder and played through pain for the rest of the season. This off-season he had his shoulder fixed by Dr. James Andrews. He has since regained arm strength and started throwing exercises. I believe (though I do not have 100% confirmation of this) that Trickett will be fully recovered by the opener and will be WVU's starting QB. Trickett is undervalued by the betting market because he played hurt for the majority of the season. Check out this quote from WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen which basically confirms my thinking on the subject:
Meanwhile Alabama's starting QB AJ McCarron graduated and has moved on to the NFL. Anyone who watched Alabama knows McCarron did more than just manage the game. He won't be easy to replace. From what I am reading it looks like Florida State transfer Jacob Coker is the front runner for the job. I am not overly impressed with Coker. Coming out of high school he was only rated as a 3 star prospect and outside of Florida State, where he was unable to win the starting job, did not have offers from prestigious programs. Compounding the lack of talent and experience at the position is the fact that the new QB will have to work with a brand new offensive coordinator. Alabama is opening the season away from home with a new QB and offensive coordinator who are both downgrades from last season.Speaking of opening the season away from home this game is being played in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome which transitions nicely to my next point of emphasis.
SPEED
This is going to seem counterintuitive but I think the fast track in the Georgia Dome might actually help WVU. Alabama as a team is faster than WVU but Holgorsen has been focused on recruiting wide receivers with a lot of speed. These receivers, Mario Alford, Kevin White, Shelton Gibson, etc will be tough to catch in space on the carpet. Shelton Gibson was a track star in high school and could possibly be the fastest player in college football. The receiving core as a whole has more experience this year. Having experienced receivers is probably more important at WVU than at other schools considering the type of "Air Raid" offense Dana Holgorsen employs. West Virginia loses top rusher Charles Sims to the NFL but their backfield will be better than people expect. They have strong stable of running backs and will add to it with highly touted Pitt transfer Rushel Shell.
IF A TREE FALLS IN DeFOREST...
When it was announced defensive coordinator Keith Patterson was leaving WVU for Arizona State many Mountaineer fans feared control of the defense would go back to Joe DeForest. DeForest is a good friend of Holgorsen's and coached the secondary and special teams at Oklahoma State while the two were there together. Holgorsen expanded DeForest's profile at WVU but DeForest proved inept at running the defense. It was a bad call to turn the defense over to his buddy and Holgorsen realized it. This season he has tabbed Tony Gibson to be defensive coordinator. I don't how Gibson will do but that fact that DeForest won't be running the show is the key point. WVU struggled a lot in the secondary but the quotes I'm reading from Holgorsen suggest they should be improved in that area this year. This is a quote from Holgorsen post spring game: "The athleticism in the secondary between last year and this isn't even close".
FINAL THOUGHTS
For the reasons stated above I believe we have a classic buy low (WVU) sell high (Alabama) situation on our hands. Plus this is essentially WVU's Super Bowl.
I believe Alabama should be favored but 25.5 points is too much. Unfortunately because it is so early it's impossible to recommend the same number that was previously available. However it could easily come back plus I still see value at the current number of 24.5. Have a great season everyone!
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: WEST VIRGINIA +25.5