Well its been a couple of decent weeks for me in CFB. Let's keep it rolling this week.
TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
Texas Tech +7.5 over KANSAS STATE: This Red Raiders squad has been suprisingly good this year, especially on the defensive side. Texas Tech comes in allowing 282 ypg, which is 8th in the country. Their run defense is also pretty solid, allowing just 111 ypg (21st) and just 3.3 ypc. That run defense is key because KSU is primarily a running team with 23 more running attempts per game than passing attempts. KSU needs that running game to open up the passing lanes but if it's held in check then they will have a hard time moving the ball through the air vs a Tech defense that allows 170.6 ypg passing at just 5.3 yards per attempt, which is 8th in the nation. Over the Years the Texas Tech offense has been one of the best in the nation and this year is no different. They average 516 ypg and check in at number 4 in passing with 361 ypg and KSU can be thrown on as they have allowed 226 ypg through the air. Both teams come in averaging 42.9 ppg on the year, but I feel it will be the Texas Tech defense that will come up with enough big plays to keep this one under a TD.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Mississippi State +23 over ALABAMA: Well I will try and step in front of the Alabama train once again. Last week I went against Alabama cause I felt that Tyler Bray and that Tennessee offense would put enough points on the board to keep it close. This week I will go against them cause I feel that the Mississippi State defense will be enough to not let this game get out of hand. The State defense comes in allowing just 327 ypg on 4.9 yards per play. They have a solid run defense that allows just 139 ypg and 4.1 ypc on the year. On offense the Bulldogs have a good running game that churns out 181 ypg at 4.9 ypc. I know they will be facing the best run defense in the nation, but they will do enough in the run game to open up their passing game that averages 235.9 ypg. Both teams are good at defending the pass as the Bulldogs allow just 5.7 ypa, while the Tide allows just 5.1 ypa, so this game will be more about running and defense, with both teams taking the occasional shots down field. In what should be a conservative ball control game I will go with the Bulldogs, whose defense and offense will come up with just enough plays to keep this game right around 2 TD's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play On any regular season CFB Dog from game 6 on out if they are off a win of 7 or more and are playing an opponent off an ATS win of 7 or more. Teams in this spot are 24-3-2 since 1980.
7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK--- Toledo -.5 & Michigan +8.5
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma/ Notre Dame Under 48.5: While I feel my Irish are in for a long day, I just cannot pick against them, so we will look to take the Under in this game. The Irish really don’t have a lot of offense and they will be up against an Oklahoma defense that has been looking very good of late. Oklahoma comes in allowing just 313 ypg and 16 ppg in their last 3 games. A Big part ofd the Irish offense is their running game and they will need to use it to shorten the game and keep the Sooners high powered offense off the field, but the Sooners have allowed just 116 ypg on the ground at a mere 3.1 ypc, Overall the Sooners allow just 4.4 yards per play, which is 15th in the country. Now the Irish defense comes in as one of the best in the nation, allowing 280.7 ypg and just 9.4 ypg on the year. The do allow just 170 ypg through the air, but haven’t faced a passing attack like they will today. Still I feel that Brian Kelly will come up with a plan to at least SLOW the Sooners offense down enough to keep them for putting up a ton of points. The Irish also don’t allow too many big plays as they have allowed just 4.3 yards per play, which is 9th in the country. This will be a game where the offenses will have to slowly move down the field. The Irish don’t have enough offense to put many points on the board vs this tough Sooner defense, while their own defense should hold Oklahoma to 28 points or less. 40 points at most here.
Tennessee/ South Carolina Over 55: Boy is this Tennessee defense bad as they come in having allowed 444.5 ypg and 33.3 ppg overall, while in their last 3 they have allowed 516.3 ypg and 45.3 ppg. This sorry defense will now take on a South Carolina offense that was shut down last week vs Florida, but that has been very good at home this year. At home this year South Carolina has put up 454 ypg and 40.8 ppg overall, while their passing game has been special at with 283.8 yards per game, while also getting 11.3 yards per attempt. When up against FBS foes this year the Vols have allowed 271 ypg through the air (101st) at 8 yards per attempt (94th), so you can expect this South Carolina offense to have a big day in this one. The Vols offense had a rough one last week vs Alabama, but make no mistake this is a good offense. This year they have put up 35 points on a tough NC State defense, 44 on a Georgia defense and 31 points on a Mississippi State defense that is 25th in total defense (338 ypg) and 9th in scoring defense (15.3 ppg) vs FBS foes this year. South Carolina does have a very tough defense, but I expect them to give up enough big plays so that Tennessee will get their fair share of points. This game will be a far cry from last years game that put up just 17 total points, as we see 60+ in this one.
BYU/ Georgia Tech Under 51: Georgia Tech has fired DC Al Groh and they went out and had a big game vs Boston College allowing just 17 points and 296 yards and now they take on a BYU offense that has struggled this year and has put up 14 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. The Tech offense is nearly unstoppable, but this may be the toughest defense they will face this year. The Cougars have allowed just 276 ypg on the year, including just 93.1 ypg and 2.9 ypc on the ground. BYU has had inconsistent QB play and they will look to run the ball allot in this one and they should have some success vs a tech defense that allows 146 ypg on 4.3 ypc. BYU will also need to run the ball to keep that high powered Tech offense off the field. Both teams will run the ball allot and with both defenses playing so well it will be hard for this game to put more than 45 points on the board.
Florida -7 over Georgia: This game will be played in some high winds and I feel that will really help the Gators, who are primarily a running team. Florida runs the ball 24 more times per game than they throw it and they average 212 ypg on the ground at 4.7 yards per pop. The Gators really like to use that ground game to wear teams down and that game plane has worked to perfection as they have outscored teams by a 17.3 to 4 ppg in the second half of games this year. The Strength of this Georgia team was to be their defense, but that hasn't worked out as they have allowed 367.4 ypg and 24.1 ppg overall. Georgia does have trouble stopping the run as they have allowed 167.9 ypg and 4 ypc on the ground this year. Offensively the Georgia offense has been very good, but they did have big problems in the game vs South Carolina's defense (7 points) and this Florida defense is a bit better than the Gamecocks, as Florida ranks 7th in total defense (282 ypg) and 4th in scoring defense (12.1 ppg) and they get better as the game goes on allowing just 4 ppg in the second half this year. This Florida defense is special and Georgia can be stopped offense as the Gamecocks showed. Look for Florida to win this one by 10+ points. KEY TREND--- In the last 30 meetings the SU winner is 26-3-1 ATS in this series.
7 POINT TEASER--- California/ Utah Under 51 & TCU +14
7 POINT TEASER--- Boise State/ Wyoming Under 58 & Ohio State +6
7 POINT TEASER--- California/ Utah Under 51 & Alabama/ Miss State Under 53 (Added)
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYSA
Texas A&M -14.5 over AUBURN
ARIZONA +6.5 over USC
IOWA STATE -2.5 over Baylor
1 UNIT PLAYS
Louisiana Tech -30.5 over NEW MEXICO STATE
FLORIDA STATE -27 over Duke
UL-MONROE -22.5 over South Alabama
2 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (14-5-1 +10.3 UNITS)
The Penn State Nitany Lions are 1-17 ATS off a DD win if they are facing an undefeated team. Play on Ohio State +1 over Penn State.
Play AGAINST any losing team that won 8 games or more last year and are facing a team off a loss. Teams in this spot are just 4-16 ATS Since 1980. Play ON Rice over Southern Miss.