Tennessee (9-4 SU/5-7-1 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 83.15 (#20)
Returning Starters: 14 (7 offense, 7 defense)
Key Losses: QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Josh Malone, DE Derek Barnett, DB Cameron Sutton
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #17
2016 Season Recap: Expectations were extremely high in Knoxville a year ago as the Volunteers returned 17 starters from a 9-4 team. They were the preseason favorites to win the SEC East, but the season was almost derailed in the opener when they were nearly upset by 3-TD underdog Appalachian St. The Vols would rebound to beat Virginia Tech by 21 in front of the largest crowd in college football history. Two weeks later, the Vols ended their agonizing 11-game losing streak to Florida. The very next week they beat Georgia on a Hail Mary TD pass on the final play to move to 5-0. They had a tough road trip to Texas A&M the following week and fell in double OT. Then a tired and banged up Tennessee team was crushed by Alabama and the wheels were officially off on the season. They suffered two sizable upset losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, which cost them the division. The season did end on a high note as they got a win and cover over Nebraska in the bowl. Ultimately, the Volunteers went under their season win total of 9.5 (South Point).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 36.4 24
Rushing 205.2 37
Passing 238.5 62
Total 443.7 40
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 28.8 68
Rushing 218.5 104
Passing 230.7 72
Total 449.2 95
Tennessee (SU: 9-4, ATS: 5-7-1, O/U: 9-4)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/1
|
App St OT
|
L
|
-21
|
20-13
|
u58.5
|
9/10
|
† Va Tech
|
W
|
-11.5
|
45-24
|
o52.5
|
9/17
|
Ohio
|
L
|
-27
|
28-19
|
u57.5
|
9/24
|
Florida
|
W
|
-4.5
|
38-28
|
o42
|
10/1
|
at Georgia
|
L
|
-3.5
|
34-31
|
o52
|
10/8
|
Tx A&M 2OT
|
P
|
+7
|
38-45
|
o58.5
|
10/15
|
Alabama
|
L
|
+13.5
|
10-49
|
o55.5
|
10/29
|
at S Carolina
|
L
|
-14.5
|
21-24
|
u51
|
11/5
|
Tenn Tech
|
W
|
-42
|
55-0
|
u64
|
11/12
|
Kentucky
|
L
|
-14
|
49-36
|
o60
|
11/19
|
Missouri
|
W
|
-17.5
|
63-37
|
o69.5
|
11/26
|
at Vanderbilt
|
L
|
-7.5
|
34-45
|
o51
|
12/30
|
† Nebraska
|
W
|
-9.5
|
38-24
|
o59
|
2017 Outlook: The Volunteers welcome back 14 starters including 7 on offense. Gone is QB Joshua Dobbs who started 33 games in his career and last year had his best season throwing for 2,946 yards (63%, 27-12 ratio) while also leading the team with 831 rushing yards and 12 TD’s. It was a 2-man battle in the spring between “steady” junior Quinten Dormady and redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano. However, after going 10 for 10 in the spring game Dormady looks like the favorite to start the season opener.
Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd are gone from the RB position but John Kelly returns after rushing for 630 yards. Leading receiver Josh Malone (972 yards, 11 TD’s) is off to the NFL buy look for Jauan Jennings (580 yards, hero of Georgia game) to become the primary receiver. The OL was working with several different rotations but keep an eye out on super true frosh Trey Smith who will likely start from Day No. 1.
On defense, the Vols return 7 starters from a group that was ravaged by injuries a year ago. They did suffer a big loss up front in DE Derek Barnett, who finished his career as the all-time sacks leader here (33 topping Reggie White). Barnett was drafted in the first round. Leading tackler Todd Kelly, Jr is back at safety and plenty of players got starting experience due to the injuries.
Both specialists return in kicker Aaron Medley (11 of 16 FG’s) and punter Trevor Daniel (44.6 average). All-American kick returner Evan Berry also returns after returning four kicks for TD’s the last two years.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #12 Quinten Dormady 6-4 216 Jr
RB #4 John Kelly 5-9 212 Jr
WR #15 Jauan Jennings 6-3 205 Jr
WR #10 Tyler Byrd 6-0 195 So
WR #9 Marquez Callaway 6-2 190 So
TE #82 Ethan Wolf 6-6 245 Sr
C #75 Jashon Robertson 6-3 305 Sr
RG #73 Trey Smith 6-6 313 Fr
LG #66 Jack Jones 6-4 307 Jr
RT #76 Chance Hall 6-4 318 Jr
LT #51 Drew Richmond 6-5 301 RS So
Defense:
DE #19 Darrell Taylor 6-4 240 RS So
DT #99 Kahlil McKenzie 6-3 325 Jr
DT #39 Kendal Vickers 6-3 295 RS Sr
DE #1 Jonathan Kongbo 6-6 270 RS Jr
WLB #20 Cortez McDowell 6-0 235 Sr
MLB #34 Darrin Kirkland Jr 6-1 230 Jr
NB #7 Rashaan Gaulden 6-1 185 RS Jr
CB #12 Emmanuel Moseley 5-11 180 Sr
SS #24 Todd Kelly Jr 5-11 208 Sr
FS #18 Nigel Warrior 6-0 186 So
CB #8 Justin Martin 6-1 183 Sr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star OT Trey Smith 6-6 313
4-star RB Ty Chandler 5-11 187
4-star S Maleik Gray 6-2 190
4-star DT Eric Crosby 6-1 330
4-star LB Will Ignont 6-2 230
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/4
|
† Georgia Tech
|
-5
|
9/9
|
Indiana St
|
-40
|
9/16
|
at Florida
|
+7
|
9/23
|
Massachusetts
|
-31
|
9/30
|
Georgia
|
-1
|
10/7
|
Bye
|
|
10/14
|
South Carolina
|
-11
|
10/21
|
at Alabama
|
+21
|
10/28
|
at Kentucky
|
-3
|
11/4
|
Southern Miss
|
-22
|
11/11
|
at Missouri
|
-5
|
11/18
|
LSU
|
+4
|
11/25
|
Vanderbilt
|
-13
|
Schedule Analysis: After disappointing many backers last season, the Volunteers are flying a bit under the radar in 2017. That usually means there is some value. I still think there is plenty of talent on hand and currently I have the Vols favored in 9 of their 12 games this year. Four of those nine favorite roles are by 5 points or less so there is a solid chance they drop one of those games. The non-conference slate is very manageable but they do have cross-over games vs Alabama and LSU from the SEC West. On a positive note, they get both revenge games vs South Carolina and Vanderbilt at home and I think a fair season win total would be around 8. Since head coach Butch Jones is feeling some pressure, the key game to the season is the opener in Atlanta against Georgia Tech. If the Vols win that one, they should be on their way to another possible 9-win season counting the bowl.