Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
Games where there have been of difference of more than 3 points has seen my computer lines beat the Vegas line at a 28-19-2 (60%) clip so far this season. That's not too shabby.
Of the 19 games where my computer is off more than 3 points compared to the Vegas line, my 5 favorite teams to back would be BYU -4, Ole Miss -14.5, Clemson +2, Idaho +13.5 and Fresno St +9.5.
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns
Brad
Game |
Line |
Computer |
Difference |
103 Kansas |
|
|
|
104 Texas Tech |
-28 |
-22.76 |
5.24 |
105 Connecticut |
|
|
|
106 Houston |
-28 |
-27.25 |
0.75 |
107 Toledo |
|
|
|
108 BYU |
-4 |
-9.01 |
-5.01 |
109 Stanford |
|
|
|
110 Washington |
-3.5 |
-2.32 |
1.18 |
111 Buffalo |
|
|
|
112 Boston College |
-18.5 |
-19.98 |
-1.48 |
113 Marshall |
|
|
|
114 Pittsburgh |
-16 |
-18.33 |
-2.33 |
115 Memphis |
|
|
|
116 Mississippi |
-14.5 |
-19.69 |
-5.19 |
117 Tulane |
|
|
|
118 Massachusetts |
+2.5 |
+1.02 |
1.48 |
119 Minnesota |
|
|
|
120 Penn State |
-2.5 |
-5.66 |
-3.16 |
121 Northwestern |
|
|
|
122 Iowa |
-13.5 |
-11.59 |
1.91 |
123 Rutgers |
|
|
|
124 Ohio State |
-38 |
-33.48 |
4.52 |
125 Kansas State |
|
|
|
126 West Virginia |
-3.5 |
-4.86 |
-1.36 |
127 Virginia |
|
|
|
128 Duke |
-3.5 |
-5.71 |
-2.21 |
129 Notre Dame |
|
|
|
130 Syracuse |
+10.5 |
+9.91 |
0.59 |
131 South Florida |
|
|
|
132 Cincinnati |
+5.5 |
+4.54 |
0.96 |
133 SMU |
|
|
|
134 Temple |
-12.5 |
-14.31 |
-1.81 |
135 Old Dominion |
|
|
|
136 Charlotte |
+8.5 |
+6.6 |
1.9 |
137 Middle Tennessee |
|
|
|
138 North Texas |
+15.5 |
+11.52 |
3.98 |
139 UTEP |
|
|
|
140 Louisiana Tech |
-19 |
-16.93 |
2.07 |
141 Florida Atlantic |
|
|
|
142 Florida International |
+6.5 |
+2.08 |
4.42 |
143 Western Michigan |
|
|
|
144 Central Michigan |
+3.5 |
+3.17 |
0.33 |
145 Northern Illinois |
|
|
|
146 Ball State |
-4 |
-2.54 |
1.46 |
147 Eastern Michigan |
|
|
|
148 Bowling Green |
-2.5 |
-4.18 |
-1.68 |
149 Ohio |
|
|
|
150 Miami, Ohio |
+2.5 |
+3.71 |
-1.21 |
151 Central Florida |
|
|
|
152 East Carolina |
-3.5 |
-9.26 |
-5.76 |
153 Akron |
|
|
|
154 Kent State |
+7 |
+3.02 |
3.98 |
155 Purdue |
|
|
|
156 Maryland |
-10.5 |
-6.67 |
3.83 |
157 Miami, Florida |
|
|
|
158 Georgia Tech |
+7 |
+4.81 |
2.19 |
159 Illinois |
|
|
|
160 Nebraska |
-20.5 |
-21.91 |
-1.41 |
161 Wisconsin |
|
|
|
162 Michigan |
-10 |
-11.5 |
-1.5 |
163 Louisville |
|
|
|
164 Clemson |
+2 |
-4.89 |
6.89 |
165 North Carolina |
|
|
|
166 Florida State |
-11 |
-12.53 |
-1.53 |
167 UL - Monroe |
|
|
|
168 Auburn |
-33 |
-36.12 |
-3.12 |
169 Navy |
|
|
|
170 Air Force |
-7 |
-6.09 |
0.91 |
171 Rice |
|
|
|
172 Southern Miss |
-24.5 |
-20.98 |
3.52 |
173 Wyoming |
|
|
|
174 Colorado State |
-6.5 |
-6.7 |
-0.2 |
175 Kentucky |
|
|
|
176 Alabama |
-35.5 |
-34.7 |
0.8 |
177 Tennessee |
|
|
|
178 Georgia |
+3.5 |
+0.9 |
2.6 |
179 Georgia State |
|
|
|
180 Appalachian St |
-19 |
-20.5 |
-1.5 |
181 Florida |
|
|
|
182 Vanderbilt |
+10 |
+7.65 |
2.35 |
183 Utah |
|
|
|
184 California |
-2 |
+0.71 |
2.71 |
185 Texas |
|
|
|
186 Oklahoma State |
-2.5 |
-2.03 |
0.47 |
187 Oregon State |
|
|
|
188 Colorado |
-18.5 |
-16.89 |
1.61 |
189 Wake Forest |
|
|
|
190 NC State |
-10.5 |
-6.53 |
3.97 |
191 Texas A&M |
|
|
|
192 South Carolina |
+17.5 |
+14.84 |
2.66 |
193 Arizona |
|
|
|
194 UCLA |
-13.5 |
-13.79 |
-0.29 |
195 Arizona State |
|
|
|
196 USC |
-10 |
-9.3 |
0.7 |
197 Baylor |
|
|
|
198 Iowa State |
+16.5 |
+15.75 |
0.75 |
199 Michigan State |
|
|
|
200 Indiana |
+6.5 |
+9.16 |
-2.66 |
201 Oklahoma |
|
|
|
202 TCU |
+3.5 |
-1.25 |
4.75 |
203 Missouri |
|
|
|
204 LSU |
-13 |
-13.05 |
-0.05 |
205 San Diego State |
|
|
|
206 South Alabama |
+18.5 |
+18.86 |
-0.36 |
207 UL - Lafayette |
|
|
|
208 New Mexico State |
+4.5 |
+4.21
|
0.29 |
209 Troy |
|
|
|
210 Idaho |
+13.5 |
+8.13 |
5.37 |
211 San Jose State |
|
|
|
212 New Mexico |
-9 |
-5.79 |
3.21 |
213 Utah State |
|
|
|
214 Boise State |
-21 |
-21.2 |
-0.2 |
215 Oregon |
|
|
|
216 Washington State |
+1.5 |
+2.82 |
-1.32 |
217 Fresno State |
|
|
|
218 UNLV |
-9.5 |
-1.19 |
8.31 |
219 Nevada |
|
|
|
220 Hawaii |
+3.5 |
+7.6 |
-4.1 |