On to Saturday after going just 4-3 on Friday. Card Is Final.
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAY
Georgia Tech +12 over GEORGIA: I know that Georgia has been playing very well of late, but I just don't feel that they should be nearly a two TD favorite over a Georgia Tech team that has just 2 losses on the year, with neither being by more than 6 points. The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 on the year and 4-1 on the road and have the kind of offense that can both keep the Georgia offense on the sidelines and match Georgia point for point should they need to. The Bulldogs do average 43.3 ppg on the year, but Georgia Tech averages a solid 37.8 ppg and both teams have been solid with the Jackets allowing just 24.1 ppg, while Georgia has allowed just 20.5 ppg. These teams are pretty evenly matched on both sides of the ball, meaning this line is pretty much due to SEC bias. Another factor to look at is the fact that Georgia has been knocked out of the race for the SEC East with Missouri's win yesterday and that squarely should put the motivation more on the side of the Jackets. With the road team 12-3-1 ATS the last 16 in the series I will look for Tech to keep this one close.
Mississippi State/ Ole Miss Under 49.5: Ahh SEC Football at its finest. Well at least for me who loves low scoring games. The Mississippi defense comes into this game ranked 1st in the nation in points allowed, giving up just 13.5 ppg and you have to feel they are a bit angry after allowed Arkansas 30 points last week. The Bulldog defense is not as good as the Rebels, but still, they are 12th in the nation in points allowed (18.4 pg) and have allowed just 12.8 ppg in their last 4 games. The Bulldogs have scored 39 ppg this year, but in games vs Alabama and Arkansas, two of the best defenses in the league, they could score just 20 and 17 points. For Ole Miss, their offense has not been great this year and vs the tough defenses they have faced (Alabama, Arkansas and LSU) they were able to just manage 10 ppg. This is the SEC and this is a huge game especially for Mississippi State and I expect both teams to play close to the vest, just like they have in many of their big games this year. The Under is 5-1 the last 6 games played at Mississippi and this one should follow suit, with no more than 42 points being scored.
Kansas/ Kansas State Under 51.5: The Kansas State defense rates as one of the better in the Big 12, as they have allowed just 21 ppg overall, including just 15.2 ppg at home. They should have no problems keeping this popgun attack of Kansas under wraps in this one. For the year the Jayhawks have averaged just 335.7 ypg and 18.23 ppg, but on the road those numbers dip to 246.8 ypg and 11.8 ppg. Very hard to see them reaching double figures in this one. The Wildcat offense has been solid at home putting up 40.5 ppg, but I don't really see them hitting that number, even though the Jayhawks have allowed 42 ppg on the road. They know they don't have to do a whole lot to win this game and they will play it as such. Both teams are primarily running teams and that will keep the clock moving. and with just 1 team being able to score I just don't see a game with more than 42 points being scored. 35-7 sounds about right.
Oregon/ Oregon State Over 67: 70, 70 and 71. That's how many points these teams have put up in the last 3 meetings and this one should follow suit. Going back a little further and we note that 8 of the last 10 in this series has put up 69 or more points. The Ducks really seem to like this series as they have averaged 45.3 ppg in the last 6 meetings and they come into this game having averaged 48 ppg in their 10 win this year, failing to score more than 42 points just once in the 10 wins. That's important cause they will win this game and they will most likely look to pour it on some so they leave no doubt in the committee's mind that they belong in the playoffs. OSU scored just 13 points at Washington last week, but that was on the road and at home this year the Beavers have averaged a solid 29.7 ppg, while the Ducks have struggled defensively on the road, allowed 500+ ypg and 32.3 ppg. The Over is 11-1 the last 12 meetings, while the Over is 18-6 in the Ducks last 24 games in November and 10-4 in the Beavers last 14 in November. 51-31 sounds about right here.
BEST OF THE REST
Notre Dame/ USC Over 61.5: Both teams have nothing to play for right now and i expect both teams to just let it all hang out in this one. The Irish offense has been very solid all year, averaging 34.7 ppg, but it has been their defense that has let them down over the second half of the year as they have allowed a whopping 40.3 ppg in their last 6 games. USC should have a field day in this one, especially since they have averaged 525 ypg and 43 ppg at home this year. The USC defense has been solid overall, but did allowed 38 to UCLA last week, 30 to Cal the week before, 28 to Colorado and 38 to ASU earlier in the year. The will give up points to an Irish offense that has averaged 34.5 ppg on the road. Both teams will get their fair share of points in what should be a shootout.
Clemson/ South Carolina Under 54.5: The Clemson offense was clicking earlier in the year, but since QB Watson went down they have really struggled on that side of the ball. He has gotten back on the field sparingly, but just hasn't been the same player he was before he went down and backup QB Cole Stoudt hasn't helped the offense all that much while he has been in there. The Tigers have averaged just 16.8 ppg in their last 5 games and last week they were not able to score at all in the 2nd half vs a horrible Georgia State defense. The Tigers have not needed their offense all that much as their defense has been outstanding, ranking 1st in total yards allowed and 8th in points allowed, giving up just 17.6 ppg, while at home they have allowed just 210.8 ypg and 10.8 ppg. The South Carolina offense has been strong, while their defense has been weak, but still the Tigers have not been in many high scoring games of late due to their conservative style of play and they should play that same way, which will keep the scoring in this one in the 40s.
LOUISVILLE -12 over Kentucky: I know the Cardinals are off a big road win over Notre Dame, but I don't expect a letdown here, as they will be taking on their biggest rival of the the year and a win here would probably net them a better bowl invite. Te Cats had a good start to their year and at times really showed tat they are improved, but they have lost 5 in a row, been outscored 113-47 in their last 2 games and have been outscored by 25.3 ppg on the road this year. The Cats have allowed 43.8 ppg in their last 5 games and they will be taking on a healthy Louisville offense that has scored 32.5 ppg in their last 4 games. The Cats have averaged just 14.8 ppg on the road, while Louisville has allowed just 18.7 ppg overall and 20.8 ppg at home. No way the Cats score enough here to keep this one close.
Washington/ Washington State Over 62: The Huskies have not been involved in too many high scoring games, but I feel they will be in this one. The strength of the Cougars is their passing game, that ranks number 1 in the nation and they will be taking on the weakness of the Husky defense, which is their pass defense that ranks 118th in the nation. I can see the Cougars lighting up the scoreboard in this one. I can also see the Huskies doing the same vs a Washington State defense that has allowed 39.3 ppg overall, including 46.8 ppg in their last 6 games. This one should be fun.
NC State/ North Carolina Over 68.5
Rice/ La Tech Under 50.5
10 Point Teaser: Louisville -2 & Michigan State -3.5 & Alabama +1.5
10 Point Teaser: Texas State -4 & Notre Dame +17 & Florida +17.5
UAB -3 over SOUTHERN MISS
COLORADO +9 over Utah
10 Point Teaser: Utah State/ Boise State Under 65 & Alabama/ Auburn Under 64 & Wake Forest/ Duke Under 55 (Added)
Minnesota/ Wisconsin Under 50
10 Point Teaser: Alabama/ Auburn Under 64 & Utah State/ Boise State Under 64.5 & Washington +7 (Added)
CFB 2014
Top Plays Overall 42-47-2 (-27.2 Units)... 4 Unit 1-3-0 (-9.2 Units)
Top Play Totals 24-34-0 (-43.4 Units)... Power Angle Plays 4-2-0 (+6.1 Units)... Top Play Teasers 2-2-0 (-0.6 Units)
Best Of The Rest Plays Overall 108-89-2 (+21.8 Units)
Best Of The Rest Totals 58-38-1 (+31.2 Units)... Best Of The Rest Teasers 23-30-0 (-18.0 Units)