heres what my numbers are showing gun
nd rd rating is 117.7 / hm rating 114.7
nvy at hm is rated 98.3 / rd rating 95.3
today
nd 117.7
nvy 98.3
I hardly go back more then 4 games, so rating nd and their opponents last 4 games,
nd rating in the last 4 games is 119.3 and their opponents rating in those last 4 games were 113.1
119.3 / 113.1 +6.2
navy rating in their last 4 games was 97.6 and their opponents rating in those last 4 games were 94.1
97.6 / 94.1 +3.5
nd scoring last 4 games 26.3 / 25.8 +.50
navy scoring last 4 games 35 / 27.8 +7.20
collectively
nd 117.7 +19.4 / 119.3 - 113.1 +6.2 / 26.3 - 25.8 +.50
nvy 98.3 -19.4 / 97.6 - 94.1 +3.5 / 35 - 27.8 +7.2
notre dame is going from being in a +6.2 situation (119.3 minus 113.1) to a +19.4 situation ( 117.7 minus 98.3) which equates to a ratings gain of +13.2 ( +6.2 to +19.4 )
navy is going from being in a +3.5 situation ( 97.6 minus 94.1 ) to a - 19.4 situation ( 98.3 minus 117.7 ) and
equates to a ratings loss of -22.9 ( +3.5 to -19.4 )
and one of the ways I use these numbers to get a line is
nd +6.2 to + 19.4 + .50 div 2 +117.7 -98.3 = +26.4
nvy +3.2 to -19.4 + 7.2 div 2 +98.3 -117.7 = -27.4
notre dame to win by 26.4 to 27.4