Missed last few weeknight PAC-12 Games (23-14-1 since 2007)
Plan to get back in the groove Week Nine
Realizing how contradictory it might sound to contend that - despite being a statistician by trade & profession, I’m just not a big ‘Trend’ capper
Thus, it’s unthinkably contrarian to proclaim a huge attraction to Dave Bartoo’s insight into ‘Week 9’
Bartoo (Football Matrix) has been routinely illustrating out the startling yearly Week 9 characteristic
Simply put: Week 9’s are distinctively filled with UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT Covers or UPSETS
Especially the last TWO YEARS; when 6 Favored TOP 10 Teams Lost Outright
2012
#3 Florida Lost to #14 Georgia
#7 Oklahoma Lost to #11 Notre Dame
#8 USC Lost at Unranked Arizona
#9 Oregon State Lost at Washington
2013
#5 Mizzou Lost at Home to #20 South Carolina
#10 Texas Tech Lost at #19 Oklahoma
Moreover, including these 6 outright favorite losses,
Favored Ranked Teams are a collective 11-23-1 ATS last two years in Week 9
Ranked Teams were just .500 Straight Up (23-23) over the last 2 years
This is skewed since NINE Games featured TWO Ranked Teams)
Injuries, Sandwich Games, Weather Changes,
And I’d argue, unheralded teams not accustomed to single digit ranking status
(MS State? Ole Miss?)
Are no longer underappreciated, and are faced with hitting the meat of their Conference Schedule
After padding stats, confidence & WINS w/nearly all their previous games in their Home (or close to Home) stadiums in warm, favorable weather & optimal conditions
Time to find out if these enterprising teams can succeed on the Conference Road
When they have to face the “Tiger Bait” fodder; in a night venue
Or even travel to The Commonwealth & face a status seeking, signature win-hungry UK Cats Team
Thu Oct 23, 2014 | 10:05 PM, EDT | Fox-1
Levi Stadium | San Francisco, California
#6 OREGON DUCKS 6-1 (3-1 Conf | 3-3 ATS)
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS 4-3 (2-3 Conf | 4-2 ATS)
Gotta start w/injuries once again, here
Oregon Offensive Line refortified itself w/return of All-Conference Sr RT Jake Fisher
Marcus Mariota was nailed nearly 4 times per game before Fisher came back
Just 3x in 2 Games since...including ZERO Sacks in Ducks Win at UCLA
Fisher coming back made a HUGE difference, giving the Duck offense all their tools & options
The Oregon Offense is alive & kicking again
PAC-12 Offense Rankings:
1. ORE 1.85 Turnover Margin (#1 FBS)
1. ORE Mariota 186 QB Rating (#1 FBS)
1. ORE 7.05 Yards per Play (#4 FBS)
1. ORE 40½ PPG (#10 FBS)
1. ORE 48.7% 3rd Down (#10 FBS)
Where Oregon is rejuvenated on the Injury front, Cal is suffering
The mainstay of Cal’s survival, the PASSING Game could be marginalized vs Oregon
The Bears Top 2 WR’s are questionable after suffering concussions vs UCLA
CAL 5-11 | 168 Jr WR Chris Harper (concussion)
CAL 6-02 | 181 Jr WR Trevor Davis (hospitalized after a spooky Kickoff Return Injury)
DEFENSE?
Not great for either team...especially Cal
PAC-12 Defense Rankings
11. ORE 462 YPG Allowed (#110 FBS)
12. CAL 562 YPG Allowed (#127 FBS; 2nd from Dead Last)
Cal fought UCLA to a tough 2 Point Loss, yet were outgained by <200> Total Yards
Cal off very painful back-to-back Losses, in a quick week to prepare for an Oregon onslaught
This Game is in a semi-neutral environment of Levi Stadium (SF)
Really think the Oregon train is back into High Gear
ESPECIALLY Mariota’s Game, which ORE OC Front seems to have removed all limitations
Opening Mariota up to continuing his Heisman March
Ducks are firmly back in Final Four Discussion
Ranked #1 in PAC-12 Power Ratings again
The 300 YPG Oregon Passing attack should vaporize Cal’s WORST FBS Pass D (426)
2 UNIT
OREGON -17½ (-110 | 5-Dimes)
CALIFORNIA
__________
Sat Oct 25, 2014 | 3:35 PM, EDT | CBS
Commonwealth Stadium | Lexington, Kentucky
#1 MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS 6-0 (4-0 Conf | 5-1 ATS)
KENTUCKY WILDCATS 5-2 (2-2 Conf | 4-2 ATS)
MS State finally gets their shot at defending their #1 Ranking
UK is due to bounce back at home after an unexpectedly one-sided 41-3 loss at LSU
Kentucky played Mississippi State quite well in Starkville last year,
Nearly coming all the way back from a big early hole, only to lose 28-22
The Bulldogs arrive in Lexington having 10-1-1 ATS run dating back to LY
Both these teams are very good ATS, combined 22-7-1 (Last 14 each)
MSU QB Prescott is getting a bright spotlight as a fresh Heisman favorites
All of this is heady stuff for MSU;
Probably not good they’ve had two weeks to bask in “THE #1” accolades
MS State is Run Strong (266 YPG)
UK Rush D, anchored by multi-year Bookend DE’s (Dupree & Smith)
May have allowed a few too many ground yards vs (AVG 270)
Overall, the UK Defense has been good statistically, especially at Home
UK is #28 FBS-Only, Overall Defense
Like Cats to put a scare into Bulldogs, who’ll be playing only Road Game in 26 Day stretch
2 UNIT
MISSISSIPPI STATE
KENTUCKY +15 (-110 | Bet-365)
__________
Sat Oct 25, 2014 | 6:05 PM, EDT | PAC-12 Network
Martin Stadium | Pullman, Washington
#15 ARIZONA WILDCATS 5-1 (2-1 Conf | 2-4 ATS)
WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS 2-5 (1-3 Conf | 2-4 ATS)
Revenge?
AZ off bye week to prepare for a Coug Team that stunned Unbeaten Cats in Tucson, 24-17 last year
Yet, really believe nasty Palouse weather & AZ youthful Secondary will be susceptible to Air Raid
AZ Pass Defense continues to regress
Cougars have a haymakers shot at winning 4 of last 5
Like Cougars here, not quite enough on M-L
(Just has that distinctive ‘Coug-It’ feel)
1 UNIT
ARIZONA
WASHINGTON STATE +3 (-120 | Bovada)
__________
Sat Oct 25, 2014 | 7:05 PM, EDT | Root Sports TV
Hughes Stadium | Fort Collins, Colorado
WYOMING COWBOYS 3-4 (1-2 Conf | 2-4 ATS)
COLORADO STATE RAMS 6-1 (2-1 Conf | 4-2 ATS)
Battle for the Bronze Boot
Cowboys stumbled over the past month
As their unforgiving schedule dictated,
Wyoming took their obligatory road breakdowns
vs 2 of 4 possible FBS Final Four-caliber Teams, Oregon & Michigan State
CSU has simply won very ugly lately
Last week the Rams slipped by USU & Ags last eligible QB, 16-13
CSU HC McElwain celebrated Rams Bowl Eligibility to a borderline awkward extent last week
Colorado State welcomes their 1st sellout in 10 Years here
On heels of trips to Eugene & East Lansing,
A packed house in Fort Collins shouldn’t phase Cowboys
Gotta think Wyoming is primed to jump on a distracted Rams Team early
Until CSU broke thru & recaptured the Boot in 2013,
Cowboys owned a 4 year win streak in series
Wyoming should make this closer than this number
1 UNIT
WYOMING +18½ (-110 | Just Bet)
COLORADO STATE
__________
1 UNIT | 7-POINT TEASER (-130 | 5-Dimes)
MISSISSIPPI
LSU +10½
To
TEXAS
KANSAS STATE -3 (-110 | sportsbook.ag)
½ UNIT
MISSISSIPPI
LSU +140 (BetUS)
All the best, guys