Well On to Saturday after I finished Thursday and Friday at 2-2. Did win my lone top play though.
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
(Risking $30.00 To Win $27.27) Alabama/ Florida Under 51: I know the point total of SEC games has gone up the last couple of year, but this one looks like an old school defensive game. Well it may not be close, but there will still be enough defense in the game to keep it under the total. The Crimson Tide had their issues on defense in the first game of the year vs West Virginia, but the Mountaineers also run the kind of uptempo offense that gives the Tide fits. The Gators do not have that kind of offense, which will allow the Tide to substitute their defense properly. On the other side we have a Florida defense that is one of the better in the nation. They did allow 30 points to Kentucky, but that was also in triple OT. The Tide offense is good, but is also still young and hasn't really been tested yet. Well the will today. Florida will take away that run game and make Sims beat them. Eventually he will, but he won't put enough points on the board for this game to go over the total. I see this one as being a 31-10 type game.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
(Risking $35.00 To Win $31.82) BOISE STATE -17 over UL Lafayette: UL Lafayette has had three 9-4 seasons in a row, but I don't see them getting their fourth on this year. The Ragin Cajuns started off with a 45-6 win over an FCS squad, but vs their 2 FBS teams they have been outscored 104-35 and have been outgained by 175 ypg in the two games. Now they head to the high altitude and chilly Blue Turf of the Boise State Broncos. The Broncos come in off a 38-21 win at UConn last week, but they only gained 292 yards in the game and that should change here vs a Lafayette defense that has allowed 455 ypg and 36.7 ppg on the year so far. That is not good when your about to face a Boise offense that has scored 46 ppg in their last 8 games on this field. Earlier this year the did beat CSU by just 13 on this field, but also outgained them by 214 yards in the contest. The Broncos always have a solid defense, especially on this field and Lafayette has shown that they will struggle vs good defense. Let's also note that Boise HC Harsin was at Arkansas State last year and lost to Lafayette by a 23-7 score, so there is some revenge there as well. The altitude and the powerful Boise ground attack will wear the Ragin Cajuns down on their way to a win of at least 24 points. Power Angle For This Play: Boise State is 18-4 ATS off a SU win vs a sub .500 team that is off BB SU losses
(Risking $30.00 To Win $27.27) Army/ Wake Forest Under 47: Neither of these teams have explosive offenses, or even average offenses, while both teams can play solid defense and that should really keep the scoring low. Army comes in having scored 7 or less in 2 of their 3 games this year, while the Wake Forest offense is just horrible as they rank 126th in total offense and 114th in scoring (19 ppg). The Demon Deacon can't score, but defensively they are solid as have allowed just 291.3 ypg and 20 ppg on the year. They also have allowed just 100 ypg on the ground, which is 26th in the nation. The Army defense has not looked good so far this year, but they have played very good offenses in Buffalo and Stanford and the Wake offense is not even close to those two. Army does have 7 starters back on defense this year and should have their best showing of the season on that side of the ball. The Under is 6-1 in Wake's last 7 home games and these teams did score just 36 points at Army last year. 36 to 38 points sounds about right here.
(Risking $30.00 To Win $27.27) Mississippi State/ LSU UNDER 48: Last year LSU hung 59 points on the Bulldog, but that won't happen this year as their offense is weaker overall, while the Bulldog defense is much better this time around. The Bulldogs did allow 34 points to an explosive UAB squad this year, but the have also allowed just 3 total points in their other two games combined. Last year the Bulldogs allowed 23 ppg on the year and have 8 starters back from that group. This will be a true SEC tough defense this year. The LSU Tigers allowed 17 points to Wisconsin in the the first half of their opener but since then they have allowed just 7 total points in their last 10 quarters of played and have pitched two shutouts in their last 2 games. I know that both teams will be taking on better offenses than they have faced of late, but still this game will be a traditional hard fought SEC game. I look for it to be played in the 30s.
BEST OF THE REST
(Risking $25.00 To Win $22.73) COLORADO -8 Over Hawaii: Hawaii really played well in their first two games vs Washington and Oregon State, but both those games were at home and this one will be on the mainland, where the Rainbow Warriors always struggle. This game will really be tough for them as it will be played at 9 am Hawaii time. The Buffaloes are 1-2 on the year and they did struggle in their lone win, which was vs UMass on the road. The Buffaloes are an improved team this year and last week they really show some improvement by thoroughly outplaying the Arizona State Sun Devils, even though they lost by 14. While the Buffaloes were facing Arizona State and playing well vs them, Hawaii was playing at home and nearly losing to FCS foe Northern Iowa. Hawaii will be without their top RB Joey Iiosefa, while we note that the Buffaloes are 12-2 ATS at home vs sub .400 opponents. Too much for the Rainbow Warriors to overcome here.
(Risking $15.00 To Win $13.64) Wyoming/ FAU Under 47: I will be going win the Under here. Wyoming played a higher scoring game last night, but that was due to the fact that they were facing the Oregon Ducks. The Wyoming offense is very bad and have yet to score more than 17 points in any game. Other than allowing 48 points to the Ducks, they have allowed just 13 and 12 points in their other two games and FAU is not really an offensive team. Yes they put up 50 points on Tulsa, but they have a sad defense, while the Cowboys do not. The FAU defense did struggle on the road vs Alabama and Nebraska, but that can be expected. Their defense will be solid this year and they do have 6 starters back from a group that allowed 22 ppg last year and they did allow just 20 points vs a decent Tulsa Offense. This is not even a good offense that they will face today. Both teams play a slow paced type of game and both have solid defenses, and that will keep the scoring in the upper 30s at best in this one.
(Risking $15.00 To Win $13.64) Texas State +13 over ILLINOIS: Illinois is an improved team but this Bobcat team is well coached and can play with the mid-level FBS teams. The Illini do have a solid offense, especially with Wes Lunt at QB, but their defense is still bad and I feel that will allow the Bobcats to keep this one close. Texas State has put up 43 ppg so far this year and this offense was expected to be explosive as they have 8 starters back from last year’s team. The defense only has 4 starters back but they have recruited well on that side of the ball and should be better than last year’s group. The Illinois defense is not very good as they come in allowing 414 ypg and 31.7 ppg and will have a tough time stopping the Bobcat offense in this one. The Illini are 1-9 ATS at home after allowing 35 points in their last game and they are in a tough sandwich spot here, coming off a road game vs Washington and they have a road game vs Nebraska on deck. For the Bobcats, we note that HC Franchione is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 games as a DD non-conference dog. Illinois may win, but by no more than a TD.
(Risking $12.00 To Win $10.91) Nebraska/ Miami Under 55: This OU line really seems too high for a couple of teams that have solid defenses and run the ball a bit more than they throw it. The Cans will look to pound the ball with Duke Johnson, while the Cornhuskers will turn to Ameer Abdullah to lead their ground attack that has put up 324 ypg so far this year. The Miami defense has been very good in the early going, as they have allowed just 259.7 ypg thus far, including 82.7 ypg on the ground. The Nebraska defense has also been very tough this year as they come in allowing just 294.7 ypg and just 4.1 yards per play so far. Both of these defenses are very solid and that along with plenty of rushing should keep this game in the mid 40’s at best.
(Risking $15.00 To Win $13.64) Georgia Southern/ South Alabama Over 59
(Risking $26.00 To Win $20.00) 10 Point Teaser Iowa +17 & Marshall +.5 & Alabama -4
(Risking $26.00 To Win $20.00) 10 Point Teaser Michigan/ Utah Under 65 & BYU -4.5 & Missouri -3
(Risking $26.00 To Win $20.00) 10 Point Teaser Oklahoma +2.5 & Oregon -13 & Miami- Fla +18
(Risking $15.00 To Win $13.64) FLORIDA STATE -10.5 over Clemson
(Risking $15.00 To Win $13.64) Arizona/ California Over 70
(Risking $12.00 To Win $10.91) Oklahoma -7.5 over WEST VIRGINIA
CFB 2014
Top Plays Overall 10-8-1 (+2.5 Units... +$15.72)... 4 Unit 0-1-0 (-4.4 Units... -$40.00)
Top Play Totals 7-5-0 (+3.5 Units... +$45.45)... Power Angle Plays 1-0-0 (+3.00 Units +$27.27)... Top Play Teasers 1-1-0 (-0.3 Units... -$14.27)
Best Of The Rest Plays Overall 21-19-0 (-1.40 Units... -$83.34)
Best Of The Rest Totals 10-7-0 (+4.6 Units... +$29.64)... Best Of The Rest Teasers 4-7-0 (-7.4 Units... -$93.91)