Beavers return to home for their only September FBS game at Reser
Oregon State has a back-loaded 2014 home schedule
OSU has only ONE Conference Home Game before NOV; when we’ll gain FOUR of em’
Can’t wait to get into Reser, under the lights on a warm Saturday Night
Students back; full-house
After another magnificent Pacific Northwest projected 90 F “Orangy” September Saturday
Should be deep.
Sat Sep 20, 2014 | 10:35 PM, EDT | Fox-1
Reser Stadium | Corvallis, Oregon
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS 1-1 (1-0 ATS)
OREGON STATE BEAVERS 2-0 (1-0 ATS)
Both Aztecs & Beavers arrive in Week Two off a Bye Week
Both teams have faced just ONE FBS Team in 2014
OSU has been bombastic when rested in the Riley Years (19-7 ATS | 73%)
This isn’t a typical bye week for Oregon State, however
MISINFORMATION
Verbatum from a ‘well-known’ weekly preview letter:
“Part of Oregon State’s dinged-up OL will be healthier following the bye week”
OSU’s Offensive Line might be health-IER,
Yet the same Two key returning OSU 2014 OL Starters
Are still entirely M-I-A for SDSU this week
OSU Center Jr (1st Team All-Conf; Corvallis High’s) 6-04 | 297 Issac Seumalo (Low Leg)
OSU Left Guard Soph 6-04 | 288 Soph Sean Harlow (Foot)
Beavers OL Depth Chart for the San Diego State Game
Consists of FIVE ENTIRELY ‘NEW’ 2014 STARTERS
OSU O-LINE
G Jr Mitchell (5 Career Starts, 2 this year)
C Sr Bays (5 Total Career Starts, 2 this year)
T Jr Andrews (2 Career Starts, both this year)
T So Weinreich (1 Career Start, last game)
G So Stanton (or JUCO Jr Keenan | 0 Starts)
As good as Beavers D has been this early season (#1 PAC-12 YPP Allowed)
They are probably even BETTER than they’ve played on this young season
OSU’s 9 Starting Senior Defense is robust
Especially Beavers’ ALL Senior (3) LB’s
OSU 5th Yr Sr, Tulsa’s Booker T Wash HS’s Power Run Stopper, Michael Doctor
OSU Sr Jabral Johnson, and the catalyst,
OSU Sr DJ Alexander, whom made unthinkable difference when healthy last 2 yrs
The Beavers underrated 2013 Secondary is 75% back, also
OSU led the FBS (2013) in COMBINED Interceptions (19) + Pass Breakups
The Beavers 3 (of 4) Senior Secondary guys have also improved enormously
Particularly in DEEP-BALL Coverages...superb in the limited 2014 action
Unlike 2013, THIS Beaver Defense is 100% Healthy
Due to OSU’s #9 Conference Total Defense statistical finish
The 2014 Beaver Defense has often been unfairly discounted
Yet - TOP to BOTTOM, This OSU Defense may not only overachieve
It may end up being near the top Defenses in the PAC-12
SAN DIEGO STATE | DEFENSE
Rocky Long’s SDSU’s Defense:
Gambling, stunting - maddening to face
These Aztecs replaced their TOP 3 and 5 of their top 6 tacklers from 2013
SDSU had a pressure-packed year in 2013, & included FOUR OT Games (3-1)
SDSU fought back to gain Bowl Eligibility & Won the Idaho Bowl,
Yet had to overcome an 0-3 start after OSU rallied to drop the Aztecs in a 34-30 stinger
Aztecs truly had the Beavers on the ropes at Qualcomm
The Beavers were ‘gifted’ a Pick Six in the 4th Quarter,
Yet, SDSU still led for 58+ minutes of the game, before the Beavers persevered
SDSU has had two weeks to prepare a payback effort in Corvallis
Rocky Long’s “3-3-5” Aztec Defense is well-suited to give an inexperienced Beaver OL trouble
Despite OSU’s professed ‘improved’ running game,
OSU hasn’t been able to RUN for short yardage gains when pressured
Plus, SDSU’s rock solid DL:
BEST in the MW; probably as good as most PAC-12 Defensive Lines
SDSU (USC Transfer) Jr 6-03 | 302 Heyward &
SDSU 6-04 | 291 Sr Meredith,
SDSU is highly likely to find their Defensive forte a great deal Saturday:
OSU 3rd & LONG’s
OSU’s necessity to fall back on their “go-to” mode,
i.e., high-risk/high-reward, pass-first methodology &
OSU’s inordinate OL False Starts & Holding Calls
Oregon State is second worst in the PAC-12, w/100 Penalty Yards/Game
Rocky Long’s reputation as an opportunistic innovator w/long-Down-n-Distance schemes is well-known & well deserved
Long’s utilization of ‘exotic’ Defensive Blitzes & Stunts from his unique “3-3-5”
Is especially heightened with 14 days of preparation time
SDSU - again - had a ranked team on the ropes two weeks ago in Chapel Hill
SDSU dominated the Heels (+115 Total Yards), and UNC narrowly escaped
Moreover, OSU HC Mike Riley’s own words this week:
‘Our short term goal is to enter the Coliseum a 3-0 Football tm w/Isaac (Seumalo) & Sean (Harlow) on field”
...the Coliseum? Oregon State’s PAC-12 Opener at Southern California on Sept 27
Red Flag for Beaver Backers:
The Dean of PAC-12 Coaches is openly looking past THIS weeks’ game vs SDSU.
Really like these two defenses to have the upper hand for most of this one
OSU should have enough to pull out a 30-21 type Win
2 UNIT | 6-POINT TEASER (-110 | Sportbet)
SAN DIEGO STATE +16
OREGON STATE
To
SAN DIEGO STATE | UNDER 65
OREGON STATE
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Sat Sep 20, 2014 | NOON, EDT | ESPN
Lane Stadium | Blacksburg, Virginia
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS 3-0 (1-1 ATS)
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES 2-1 (1-1 ATS)
Va Tech comes off an attention-grabbing, volatile 2 Week split
Hokies vacillated from the exhilarating high of their signature, outright upset win at Oh St
To playing categorically lifeless at Home vs ECU, falling behind 21-0 last week
Before awakening to rally & tie, 21-21, only to lose as a double-digit Home Favorite, ECU 28-21
Frank Beamer, “We (Hokies need of a pick-up; we have to get whipped back into shape after our ECU mess”
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets aren’t a team you’d choose to play in such a consequence
After VT Defense faced Ohio State’s Spread, & ECU’s aerial attack,
Hokie Defense must again switch their assignments to the power run game of GT
Virginia Tech opening Conference play vs a bothersome, 3-0 pig-headed Georgia Tech meatgrinder
This GT team is (again) quietly pounding down all 3 tune-up teams they’ve faced in 2014
Jackets have utilized a varied run-first, committee of ball carriers,
Including QB Justin Thomas, who has rushed for 93 Yards per game
Simply put, GT is a solid live road dog in this spot
VT handed GET their first loss in the same Week 4 Spot last year
Sending GT into a 0-3 slide, & took the Jackets a month to recover
Va Tech has owned Ga Tech over the past 4 Years,
GT (5 Year) Sr’s have this one final shot at notching a ‘W’ vs VT
2 UNIT
GEORGIA TECH +8 (-110 | 5-Dimes)
VIRGINIA TECH
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Sat Sep 20, 2014 | 4:05 PM, EDT | ESPN-3
Memorial Stadium | Urbana-Champaign, Illinois
TEXAS STATE BOBCATS 1-1 (0-1 ATS)
ILLINOIS ILLINI 2-1 (1-1 ATS)
Dennis Francoise’s Bobcats have been very good when ‘stepping up’ from Sun Belt
TSU is 6-1 in their last 7 games vs higher rated Non-Conference opponents
Illinois has underachieved more than any Big Five Conference Program
UI could be the weakest of all their underperforming Big Ten counterparts
ILL is 1-21 in Conference Play over their last 22 Games
Illini is ripe to be upset by this Texas State Team
2 UNIT
TEXAS STATE +14 (-110 | sportsbook.ag)
ILLINOIS
½ UNIT
TEXAS STATE +425 (sportbet)
ILLINOIS
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Sat Sep 20, 2014 | 3:35 PM, EDT | ESPN-U or ESPN
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium | Greenville, North Carolina
#25 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS 2-0 (0-1 ATS)
EAST CAROLINA PIRATES 2-1 (2-0 ATS)
ECU embarrassed UNC in Chapel Hill last season, 55-31
UNC’s Secondary is still noticeably youthful, yet TRULY improved as 2013 progressed
Pirates are riding high after jumping on VT early, then hanging on to win in Blacksburg
ECU probably hasn’t completely decompressed from tumultuous BTB Road pressure tests at South Carolina & Virginia Tech
Heels had a bye week to work on the revenge game plan
Taking Heels outright in Greenville
2 UNIT
NORTH CAROLINA +120 (Sportsbook.ag)
EAST CAROLINA
All the best, guys