CFB GOY North Texas-2.5
I am sure some of you are saying what the heck 1-10 North Texas? Well a lot of thought went into this play. My eyes were 1st opened to this North Texas entry on 10/15/15. That night the Mean Green took on Western Kentucky and they were a tremendous under dog. Some might remember we had a small 1st half play that night on the chalk. This was also the first game that Mike Canales took the reins as the interim coach of what was a winless lifeless football team to date. Some might remember that the 1st half ended on a TERRIBLE beat with North Texas completing a hail marry pass at the horn. The play that was called was actually wonderfully designed by Canales (who is a offensive coordinator by trade till the promotion). The Mean Green lined up much like every other hail marry attempt with all wide outs split to 1 side of the field and then all ran to the end zone however somewhere around the 15 yard line 1 receiver veered off to the opposite side of the end zone creating a 1 on 1 opportunity and sure enough the pass was completed to that receiver and causing us to lose our play on Western 1H. I always try and learn from my mistakes as a handicapper and although this was a small play and didn't cost us that much I still kept an eye on the 2H of this game as it was clear to me that the Mean Green were playing with some pep in their step despite being blown out AND winless. Western Kentucky won the 2H 21-14 with the 14 points from the Mean Geen coming in the 4th quarter. But once again this raised my eyebrows as I saw a team that was winless on the season still showing fight in what was a 48-14 score at the time.
The following week the Mean Green took on Marshall another top team with in the conference and again I saw fight from a big underdog North Texas entry as they again slipped inside of the big price. The following game the level of competition dropped dramatically as the the Mean Green took on UTSA and were only a 7 point dog at home. Some might remember I said this was a great spot for North Texas because we had a NT entry that was showing fight in previous games despite being way over matched. Now they were in a spot where they knew if they brought the same fight to the field that they at least had a chance to see a tangible reward and taste a victory. As a team and as athletes this type of situation will usually give you more drive to obtain a goal as now you know you have a chance compared to previous games when you know on your absolute BEST day you would likely not even come close to winning (however as I stated earlier even in the toughest of situations this North Texas team was showing fight). Some of you might remember we were on NT with the points and the money line. I watched every minute of this game and sure enough I saw a team that was playing inspired football. I repeat a 0-7 entry playing INSPIRED football, just as I had expected. Sure enough The Mean Green pulled out a victory after trailing at the half 10-7. I even watched the post game interview with the interim head coach Mike Canales and what I saw was a coach that had passion and was so excited for his team that they won this game almost as if the won a championship even though they were just a 1-7 entry after the win. There is a saying in life as well as sports you really learn what you have when you are in the most adverse of situations. When the ship is sinking are you 1st one to the deck to help or the 1st one to jump ship. North Texas showed me leading up to this game that deep inside they had fight and desire to win.
Immediately after the game I scanned North Texas schedule and I saw this weeks gm vs UTEP and this would be a CHANCE TO WIN game. I then kept a close eye on the Mean Green as the 3 games leading up to the UTEP game they would all be big dog prices. What I saw was still a team fighting and playing hard for their interim coach. This showed me something as they clearly could've mailed it in after the 1 win yet Canales clearly had gotten through to his squad that they would compete and fight no matter what. Another point here this is the SECOND go around for Canales in this interim spot at North Texas. In the previous tour of duty which was the 2010 season Canales took over what was a 1-6 team and they would go on to win 2 of its last 5 games again in similar spots as a they were often a considerable dog that scraped and fought even in adverse circumstances.
Those who were with me last year might remember that we latched onto kansas midway through the season after they dismissed their head coach and they were in very similar situations where we had a kansas entry that was well over matched vs mostly every team in conference yet we saw a KU team showing fight then we got the 1 game where they would HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN vs Iowa St, KU went onto win that game in a route as a short home dog and no joke the fans rushed the field and tore down the goal posts. Unfortunately after that game Kansas did not find themselves in a CHANCE TO WIN spot after that although they did go on to take a top 5 TCU team to the buzzer.
Anther important factor here and this is a rather broad elementary factor but I said to myself prior to the line being released this week that the number would be a straight tell. If the books made a 1-10 team chalk to a 4-7 squad that it would confirm that I had this game zero'd in. Why would a 1-10 team be chalk to a 4-7 team in the last game of the season when common sense from a on looker from a far would say I can get a 4-7 team PLUS points. Its very similar to how earlier this year we saw a UNDEFEATED Utah team as a dog vs USC. This was a TELL by the books and right here we have a similar TELL situation from the books..... granted completely different levels of play but the situation is similar in that the boys on the other side of the counter are making a statement with the line.
Two final notes here, first UTEP was eliminated last week from bowl eligibility so there could be a slight feeling of who cares our season is over (granted its nothing like a let down from a team with big bowl aspirations but it could be a slight factor). Second note is that Canales clearly is trying to win the job here and I think its very obvious that his players have responded well to him. This is just the cherry on top of the situation as I would be absolutely shocked if we didnt get a tremendous effort here from the Mean Green and effort in a meaningless final game of the season (similar to the smaller bowl games where you often see the more motivated team win) usually reins supreme.
For all these reasons I am siding with North Texas to get the cash here and I will call the score 33-10 Mean Green