This is the first of my CFB previews for the year. Nothing out of the ordinary this year. All my own writing, but obviously i did have to do allot of reading (which I have been doing a ton) and the...
Info Gathered For My Previews Have Been Taken From Phil Steels's CFB, Athlon Sports and The Sporting News. Trends are From Marc Lawrence's Playbook.
American Athletic Conference Preview (Teams Are In Predicted Order Of Finish)
The Cincinnati Bearcats parlayed a soft schedule into a nice 9-4 season, but they did struggle at the end of the year when the schedule got tougher. Now the Bearcats are in the 2nd year of Tommy's systems and with plenty of talent returning they should be ready to take the next step and that would be the American Athletic Conference Title. The offense should be improved this year, especially if Notre Dame transfer Gunner Keil is as god as advertised. He has a solid ground game to feed the ball to and plenty of weapons to throw to, while the OL is rated the best in the AAC. The defense for the Bearcats will be tough again, but probably won’t rank 9th in the nation like last year’s group did. Still they have one of the best front 7s in the AAC and even with a weak secondary, they should finish in the top 20 in total defense this year. The schedule is pretty soft again, as they avoid both Central Florida and Tulsa in the AAC and their road games that include Temple, UConn, SMU and Tulane, are all winnable. With the addition of Gunner Keil and a top 20 defense, plus the fact that they are in the 2nd year of Tommy’s system, I can see this team posting double digit wins this year and taking the AAC crown from a UCF team that I expect to take a small step back this year. KEY TREND: The Bearcats are 8-2 ATS when playing the 2nd of BB road games.
The Houston Cougars went 8-5 overall and 5-3 in the newly formed American Athletic Conference last year. This year the Cougars are looking for bigger things as they have 17 starters back and will have an offense that can rival that of East Carolina. Let the fireworks begin. The Cougars like to spread the field and throw, throw, throw. The last 2 years they have averaged in the low 30’s but this year they should get back to producing 40 ppg. John O’Korn had solid freshman year and will only be better this time around. 5 of his 6 top pass catchers are back, including Deontay Greenberry, who had 1202 yards receiving and 11 TDs last year. This run game will also be solid with their top 6 ballcarriers are back from last year, while the OL returns 75 career starts and looks to once again be a solid unit. In 2012 the defense was 118th the in the nation and allowed 36 ppg, but last year they chopped 15 ppg off of that and it was mainly due to the fact that they led the nation in takeaways, with 43. This year they have 9 starters back, including 3 players that had at least 109 tackles on the year. Efren Oliphant, Derrick Mathews and Trevon Stewart, combined for 359 tackles, 10 sacks and 16.5 TFL last year. This defense has playmakers all over the field and has a chance to be even better than last year. The Cougars do have road games vs SMU and Cincinnati to finish the year, but they also avoid East Carolina, have both Tulsa and Central Florida at home, plus get easy road games vs Memphis and South Florida. The Cougars have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and I would not be surprised at all if the game vs Cincinnati to end the year was for the AAC Title. I will call for a 2nd place finish for the Cougars this year. Key Trend: The Houston Cougars are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Tulane.
What a magical season the Central Florida Knights had last year as they went 12-1 overall and ended their season with a 52-42 Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor. This year the Knights have a bit of rebuilding to de, especially on offense, but they will still be a factor in the AAC this year. This offense averaged 35 ppg over the last 2 years, but now Blake Bortles is gone and Justin Holman will take over after throwing just 14 passes last year. The good news for Holman is that he has their top 3 WR’s back from last year, including Rannell Hall and Breshard Perriman, who combined for 1697 yards and 9 TD’s last year. 1000 yard back Storm Johnson is gone, but Willam Stanback did have 443 yards and 6 TDs last year, so he should do fine, even though he will running behind a mediocre offensive line, that returns just 2 starters. Last year this team allowed just 21.3 ppg and they have 9 starters back this year. LB Terrance Plummer (110 tackles, 6 TFL, 2.5 sacks and 6 PBU’s) and Clayton Geathers (4.5 TFL, 10 PBUs and 2 INTs) lead this defense. The DL will be solid, but is a bit thin, while the LB corps is a strength and the secondary is rated 8th best in the nation, according to Phil Steele. The Knights had a great year in 2013, but I expect a slight step back for them. The offense will take a step back, especially with breaking in a new QB, losing a 1000 yard back and having an inexperienced OL. Defense does win championships and the Knights may have the best one in the AAC. Their secondary is one of the best in the nation, while the LB Corp is very stout. If the DL holds up then this team could give up less than the 21.3 ppg they allowed last year. Road games vs Houston and East Carolina will be very challenging, but the rest of the schedule is very manageable and should they win 1 of those two road games then they just might be able to take the AAC. I see them losing both and it looks like a 3 rd place finish for them in the AAC this year. KEY TREND: The Knights are 12-1 ATS as road dogs of less than 21 if they are off a SU win.
The East Carolina Pirates went 10-3 in their last year in Conference USA, which ended in a 37-20 rout of Ohio in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl. Now the Pirates will take their fun uptempo offensive talents to the AAC in hopes of building on the last 2 years that saw them win 18 games. Ruffin McNeil likes to play uptempo offense and last year it produced 40.2 ppg. Shane Carden is the QB of this offense and will probably be the best QB in the league this year. He has his top two WR’s back from last year, including Justin Hardy, who had 114 catches, 1284 yards and 8 TDs last year. The Running game losses 1000 yard back Cooper, but some solid replacements are ready to take over. The OL will be a bit weaker as they lose 3 starters, but not by much. The defense for the Pirates allowed just 24.8 ppg last year and had the best run defense in Conference USA. This year they have but 4 starters back on this side of the ball, so duplicating last year’s numbers may be tough. The strength of this defense will be the line, where 2 of three starters return, but the back 8 will be a work in progress. The Pirates will be stepping up in class this year, but Ruffin McNeil has really had this team playing very good the last couple years and I see another solid year from them in 2014. The Pirate offense behind Shane Carden will be one of the best in the league, while the defense will take a slight step back, after losing 8 of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago. The Pirates will be a factor in the AAC and will make another Bowl appearance, but I just don’t see them winning 10 games again. KEY TREND: The Pirates are 0-7 ATS their last 7 trips to Cincinnati.
The Memphis Tigers had a dismal 3-9 year in 2013, which now has them at 12-48 the last 5 years. There is hope for them this year as a stout defense, an improved offense and a manageable schedule could give them their first bowl appearance since 2007. The offense was a big problem for this team last year, as they averaged just 19.5 ppg and scored more than 21 points just 3 times the whole year. Paxton Lynch is back at QB, and will be aided by the return of his top 4 WRs from a year ago. Also returning is RB Brandon Hayes, who ran for 860 yards and 5 TD’s a year ago. The OL loses two starters but still they have 63 career starts returning and should be a much better unit than last year. The defense ranked 117th in total defense just 3 years ago, but last year they had the 39th best defense in the nation. DC Barry Odom has done a fine job with this defense and with 8 starters back on this side of the ball, it should be his best defense yet. The Defense is led by DE Martin Ifedi, who tallied 11.5 sacks last year, which now gives him 19 sacks the last 2 year. Two safties must be replaced, but this is still a very formidable unit. The Memphis Tigers have gone through a miserable 5 year stretch, but they do have an excellent shot at getting a bowl invite this year. The Offense is a year older and is loaded at WR, while the running game and OL are also very solid. The defense for this team is very underrated and with 8 starters back and DC Barry Odom calling the shots they have a chance to be the best in the AAC. Tough home games vs Houston and Tulsa, plus a tough road game vs Cincinnati will test them, but most of the rest of the schedule is manageable and that should be good enough to get them to a bowl game this year. KEY TREND: The Memphis Tigers are 12-1 ATS in their last road game of the year.
In 2012 the Tulsa Golden Hurricane went 11-3 on the year, won the Conf USA Title and had a Liberty Bowl win. Last year it all came crashing down as they went just 3-9 during their final year of Conf USA play. This year they have a shot at getting back to bowl eligibility, but only if their offense wakes up. Tulsa is a team that is used to putting up big offensive numbers, but last year this team was able to put up just 21.8 ppg. This year they lose QB Cody Green and have just 5 starters back overall on the offensive side of the ball. Dane Evans got some experience last year at QB and looks to have the job for this year, even though he did struggle a year ago. Tulsa will also lose their top 2 RB’s and top WR from a year ago as well. The RB position should be filled by JC transfer Tavarreon Dickerson, but the WR corps is thin with just 1 player back that caught more than 12 passes last year. The OL is deep and experienced and will clearly be the strength of this unit. Last year the defense retuned just 2 starters and they struggled, allowing 33.9. ppg on the year. This year they have 10 starters back so they should be a much improved group. This defense will be led by an outstanding secondary, which includes Demarco Nelson, who sat out last year and SS Michael Mudoh, who was the team’s leading tackler last year with 133. The DL struggled vs the run last year, allowing 4.6 ypg, but will be much stronger this time around, while the LB corps will be a bit thin.Tulsa took a major step back last year as they went from 11 to 3 wins, but I don’t expect this team to stay down for too long. This team is improved on both sides of the ball, especially the defense that has 10 starters and 26 of 30 lettermen back. The schedule sets up nicely for them to at least double last year’s win total of 3. KEY TREND: Tulsa is 8-0 ATS the week after playing SMU.
After 4 consecutive Bowl trips, the SMU Mustangs took a step back last year by going just 5-7 overall and 4-4 in the AAC. June Jones will have his work cut out for him if he hopes of getting the Mustangs back to a Bowl game this year. The Offense put up 26.8 ppg last year and led the AAC in passing, but this year offense may be a bit more pedestrian. Blain Gabbert is gone and it looks as if Neal Burcham will take over. The playbook will be scaled down for him. Also gone from this offense are two 1000 yard receivers, making Neals job even more difficult. The running game and OL are decent, but not spectacular. The defense gave up too many big plays a year ago, but they do return 27 lettermen on this side of the ball, so improvements can be expected. The DL for the Mustangs has all 3 starters back and should be the strength of this unit. The LB corps will be solid with 2 of 4 starters back, including Stephon Sanders, who had 10 TFL and 3.5 sacks last year. The pass defense allowed 272 ypg through the air and just 1 starter returns to the secondary. The Mustangs took a step back last year and it may be more of the same this year. Their offense will be a bit more conventional than in year’s past as Neal Burcham did not show he can handle the run and shoot offense, plus losing two 1000 yard WR’s hurts as well. The defense will be stout up front this year, but still the secondary will yield too many big plays. The Mustangs have ECU, Tulsa and UCF on the road and Houston and Cincinnati at home, plus a non-conference slate that includes Texas A&M, TCU and Baylor. Just don’t see them going bowling this year. KEY TREND: June Jones is 15-2 ATS as a dog, following a season in which he failed to go bowling.
Last year the Tulane Green Wave halted a streak of 11 straight seasons without a bowl bid by going 7-6 on the year. This year they have a new stadium and momentum, but they do step up in class with their move to the AAC and that may have them taking a step back this year.The offense for Tulane was not indicative of a team that won 7 games as they finished ranked 115th in the nation in total offense. This year they will go through some more offensive struggles as they lose RB Orleans Darkwa (869 yrds, 12 TDs) and WR Ryan Grant (1039 yrd, 9 TDs) from last year. QB Nick Montana is back, but it looks as if rFr Tanner Lee will get a chance to run the offense after an impressive spring. He does have back the next 4 top rushers from a year ago and the next 7 pass catchers back as well. The OL is talented and deep. The defense is what really got this team to 7 wins last year, as they allowed just 21.4 ppg and 351 ypg. Despite the fact that they have 6 starters and 22 lettermen back from last year, they also have just 3 of their top 9 tacklers back, which could mean a step back for this defense this year. The secondary is the strength of this unit, but most of the DL and LB corps must be rebuilt and will struggle some. The Green Wave broke a long postseason drought last year, but I feel it will be just a 1 year bowl streak for them. The offense is in the hands of a redshirt freshman and the top 2 weapons from last year are gone. I feel that they will improve on their 115 th ranking in total offense from last year, but not sure by how much. The defense has many holes in the front 7 and will not be nearly as good as last year’s group. Tulane moves to the AAC this year, but it will not be a winning season as I expect no more than 5 wins from them. KEY TREND: The Green Wave are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs Tulsa.
The South Florida Bulls did not have a good year in Willie Taggart’s first year at the helm of the team, as they went just 2-10 on the year, including 2-6 in the AAC. Now with Taggert starting to get his own recruits, it looks as if this team will be taking a small step forward. The Bulls were a mess offensively last year as they scored just 11 TDs, while averaging just 13.8 ppg. Mike White looks to have the inside track on the QB spot, but must improve his accuracy (3 TDs vs 9 INTs). He should have a better year and aiding him will be the return of their top 4 WRs from a year ago, including Andre Davis, who caught 49 passes for 735 yards last year. The running game losses their top back from a year ago, but some talented youngsters are ready to take over, while the OL will be one of the best in the AAC with all 5 starters back. The defense for the Bulls was solid last year and ranked 21st in the nation in yards allowed, but this year they will take a step back as just 5 starters and just 2 of their top 6 tacklers from last year are back. The weak point may be a DL that lost 3 starters, but the LB corps and secondary should both be decent this year. The Bulls have won just 5 games the last 2 years, but this year they should start turning back to respectability. The offense can only get better with 10 starters back and with being in the 2nd year of Taggart’s system. The OL will be very good and if White can make some plays then I see around 20 ppg for this team. 20 lettermen return to a defense that still could finish in the top 30 in the nation despite having just 5 starters back. The schedule is tough with road games vs SMU, Cincinnati and Tulsa, while they have home games vs ECU, Houston and UCF. Still this is an overall better team and should at the very least double last year’s win total of 2. KEY TREND: HC Willie Taggert is 19-3 ATS in road games.
From 2009 – 2011 the Temple Owls had resurrected their program, going 26-12 over that stretch, but the last 2 years they have taken a few steps back, going 6-17 over that stretch, including a miserable 2-10 last year. The offense last year was pretty average as they averaged 24.8 ppg, but when PJ Walker took over at the QB spot halfway through October, the Owls offense improved greatly as they averaged 33.3 ppg in their last 6 games of the year. Walker is back and does lose his top two targets from last year, but Jalen Fitzpatrick and John Christopher have the talent to step up and do a great job. The running game will be solid with their top 2 backs returning, but the OL will not be a strength as all 5 are gone from last year. Temple has 8 starters back on defense and looks to improve over last year's unit that allowed 29.8 ppg and 474 ypg. The LB corps will be one of the best in the league, but they do have problems along the line, especially in getting to the quarterback, plus the secondary that allowed 299 ypg through the air last year will have to step up their play as well. The Owls are still a work in progress. They now have a solid QB for the next few years in PJ Walker, who can not only throw, but also had 488 yards on the ground last year. This team has the potential of putting up 28 ppg this year, even with a rebuilding OL. The defense was not a strength of this team, but with 8 starters and 21 lettermen back they will be improved this year. The schedule is very tough and even with an improved team I still expect no more than 3 wins from the Owls this year. KEY TREND: 6-0 ATS after playing Penn State.
The Connecticut Huskies had a miserable year in 2013, finishing with a 3-9 mark overall. The good news is that they did win their last 3 games to finish 6th in the AAC and bring some momentum into 2014. They also hired Bob Diaco (Notre Dame DC) as their coach in hopes that his no-nonsense approach will turn things around for this team. The offense was very weak last year, but Casey Cochran should help them total more than the 20.6 ppg they put up last year. He has his top 2 WR’s back from last year, including Geremy Davis, who caught 71 passes for 1085 yards. The running game should be solid, but the offensive line will be one of the weakest in the AAC. Still this is an improved offense. The defense had many problems last year, as they ranked 9th in total defense in 2012, but dropped to 51st last year on their way to allowing 30.3 ppg. Defense is Bob Diaco’s forte and he has some nice pieces to build around this year, especially up front and in the secondary, where 3 starters return that combined for 17 PBUs and 7 INTs. The LB corps needs some work but overall this defense looks to be stronger than last year’s version, especially with Bob Diaco now being the headman. The schedule is pretty tough, as they get both UCF and Cincinnati at home, which means theat most winnable games are on the road. They are also going through a coaching change, which could make it hard for them to top last year’s 3 wins that they put up. I will call for another rough year in Connecticut even though they will be better than last year’s edition. KEY TREND: Uconn is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs Temple.