Want to share a little bit of what I've constructed over the past 5 months. The following angles have seen great success in not only college basketball, but the NFL and CFB as well. (Disclaimer: I hate the NBA and refuse to bet it, but that's just me). I've formed a semi-system based off of a couple different variables and of course, from learning after many sucker wager losses in the past. I've been pretty selective, yet still been hitting around a 61 percent clip with these.
If an underdog is winning at the half, take them getting points in the 2H IF the favorite has to CROSS ZERO to cover the 2H line: Standard chase for those that have laid the points with the favorite and are looking to double back. Bookmakers go for the jugular here trying to catch people in a trap. For example, NFC divisional round. I had Seattle getting 11 points against New Orleans for the game. Seahawks were leading by 4 at the half; 2H line was NO -7. That was so obvious to me to take Seattle --- it was like the books were begging you take the popular road favorite (again). "Oh, Saints will win by at least a field goal." Well, no they won't, it's never that easy. Seahawks covered 2H and won the game outright.
EDIT: It's been decided that any home dog winning at the break is an automatic play. That said, it's much harder to back a road dog in CBB or CFB because of how important home court/field advantage is at the collegiate level. Young athletes are rattled much easier and if the home favorite goes on an early 2H spurt, the bottom could fall out on the road dog because of the newfound momentum. In the professional ranks, the venue doesn't mean as much and it could still be viable to bet the road dog (especially in the postseason like the Jets over Pats in 2011 NFL Playoffs.)
If the listed, unpopular favorite is covering a spread at halftime, take only them in the 2H: Similiar to above, this is a chase of those trying to eek inside the number with a couple "extra" points. Two nights ago, Texas A&M played at Texas in a battle of two Top 10 teams. The Aggies +7 were the extremely public side, catching upwards of 80 percent of action. The Longhorns were up by 12 at half and most of the books threw up a "PK" as the 2H line. This was one of the easier second half wagers for me to make all season. The general public who already was all over A&M +7 for the game saw a chance to literally buy five more points to +12 and maybe cut their losses with an extra cushion. Of course, this was yet another trap for the public as Texas pummeled A&M by 21, covering the 2H line by 9.
Always avoid -1/2 and -1: In my opinion, this should be one of the first lessons of Gambling 101 from the start. When linemakers throw out something like minus-one, I've automatically programmed my brain to lean to the +1, especially at the half. Last night, I cashed with Cal Poly 2H. Thanks to Sac Lawson having me on Poly +4 for the game, I was already invested in the game. Poly was down 4 at the half --- I was tied ATS --- and take one guess where the 2H opened up?! That's right, Riverside -1. I knew right away that not only would Poly probably cover the 2H, but also the game. Pounded it immediately and Poly won outright 65-60 covering the 2H by 9 and doubling me up.
Interested to hear some thoughts and reactions. Also wondering if any of you have experienced sucker 2H beats like these and kicked yourselves after the fact. I can assure you that more times than not, these theories and principles will be very kind to your bankroll. Hope this was helpful.