Jojo,
As far as your two games are concerned:
UVA/Duke was one of the games I completely passed on given the circumstances with Duke. Just three days after being upset by FSU, they're trailing by 6 at half
at home. I probably wouldn't have grabbed 20 with Virginia given the motivational factor for the Dukies and the reaming they got from Coach K at half.
In fact, in college sports, I cater this system more toward the home dogs, where the crowd gets behind these young kids, not against them. I love my system, but obviously, there are circumstances where we just have to avoid. That very play crossed my mind for about a second before I passed. At the end of the day, selectivity is the key and when we can find an equilibrium between situational probability and the theory itself, we're sitting pretty.
Obviously, it's easy for me to sit here and say this after the fact, but when I saw the Jets getting NINE POINTS in the second half, I almost hacked up a lung. That was such an easy take in my system,
especially in a playoff game where anything can happen. Also, we learn in the playoffs that point spreads really don't matter much, it's about just picking the winner (I think all the dogs that covered actually won outright in the first two rounds). Situationally, I parlayed my system with how impressed I was with the Jets' defensive adjustments. By rushing only three guys, NYJ challenged Brady to beat their 3-3-5 zone coverage, which was something the Pats obviously hadn't prepared for. Still, anytime I can take a team that's winning at the half in the NFL and getting JUST under a key number in the 2H (like 6, 6.5, 9, 9.5), it's a sound wager.
Not to many thoughts about 2H totals as I don't really play much. Greg Shaker would be the one to ask there and hopefully he pops in. With any total though, you have to fully understate what type of basketball the home team likes to play and the pace they would like to control.