Analysis: And I'm not going to flop on this one or wait for a better # and perhaps lose the one we have. +3 would be all I'd wait for (because +2 is a push and not a loss if I could get +2.5 later. It COULD go to +3 but I doubt it, at least as of now, and IMO Iowa has every chance to win this game. We all (or most of us that look every day!) know that Indiana does one thing on offense (shoot three's) and nothing on defense. In fact, the Hoosiers defense is 13th (out of 14 teams) in defensive efficiency in the Conference, and their are some real inept offenses in the Big 10. Indeed, they can shoot the rock, and they'll make plenty, however, Iowa has the third ranked perimeter defense in the Conference, and although there are indeed some inept offenses, they've played Wisconsin (twice), Purdue on the road, and Michigan, all of whom CAN shoot three's. Iowa will be more than happy to run with the Hoosiers, and in fact may make Indiana run more than they like to. They are super-big and super-experienced, whereas Indiana is super-young and pretty small. It's also NOT thier last home game as they have Michigan State next. Iowa gets to the line a LOT and Indians hardly ever does. IMO the long schedule/season may be catching up with the youngsters. Iowa comes in hot, winners of four straight, while Indiana lost at Northwestern and lost thier last home game to Purdue, so they may be feeling a bit more vulnerable, which also speaks to youth. Iowa is PROBABLY in the Dance, but their name has come up as a bubble team. Another solid road win here would put that talk to rest. Last possession game at the very least, IMO.
Other plays I am considering:
G-Tech: Like to fade UNC before a Duke game
G-Town: Hate fading Butler, but they don't match up well
Mississippi: The memory of 'Bama's ineptness at home against UGA
A & M: I saw the line move, but Finney-Smith prob back. Still, matchup issue, low scoring. TBD
Youngstown: Yes, they suck. Detroit shouldn't be -9 to many and they JUST played.
7:45AM-Just seeing totals come out, at least for those that have BetOnline. I do lean Dayton/URI over, and of course it moved 2 points already. Should be a close game, and both teams get to the line a lot. Want to just fire that one, but patience is, unfortunately, a virtue. I doubt that total comes down. G-Town/Butler looks like an easy under (barring another almost-double OT) and Alabama/Mississippi will trend to the over, IMHO. The overnight sharp money is indeed on G-Tech, Talent-wise, not so much. Situationally, for sure. As much as I like both road teams (Wright/Youngstown) in the Horizon Tournament (split at worst I think) I am going to wait (patience) and try to avoid taking sh*tty teams as much as possible.