“Aim Small, Miss Small” This quote from the movie ‘The Patriot’ sums up my approach to college baskets. Mel Gibson’s character taught his children to aim small, miss small when shooting at a target. The logic being that if you were to aim at someone and miss you would miss completely but if you were to aim at a button on their shirt and miss you would still hit them. His teachings paid off as his sons were able to help successfully ambush a convoy of British soldiers and free their older brother played by Heath Ledger (RIP). Well I am aiming small if you will in college baskets this season. My goal is to redefine our empirical understanding of what it means to be a successful sports bettor. If I miss and end up hitting 55% that will be perfectly fine too.
Really though my goal is to provide quality write-ups that you can use to make your own decisions. At the end of the day I believe the real EV comes from the experience itself. As always I am interested in what you guys think so please make sure to leave comments. Let me know who you like but more importantly why. As always never risk more than you are prepared to lose.
Boise St. vs San Diego (neutral site game in Los Angeles) Fri, Nov. 14th
Boise State
Boise State is coming off a disappointing season (21-13 overall, 9-9 in the Mountain West) in which they missed the post season despite high expectations. They are coached by Leon Rice who is in his 5th year. Fortunately for them they return their top two scorers in Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks (I’m not quite sure Marks is 100% healthy, more on that later). However, they lose their top rebounder Ryan Watkins who was by far their best player in the frontcourt (he averaged a double double). They also lose their top 3 point shooter in Jeff Eloriaga. Their best recruit is probably Chandler Hutchison who I expect to contribute from day one and could end up being really special for them. Rice will try to replace Watkins’ production with a mix of freshman recruits and transfers but there will certainly be a drop-off in frontcourt play, especially early in the season with all the new faces. They will need 6ft8 Nick Duncan to step up bigtime. Mikey Thompson will take over at point guard. Thompson played 26 minutes a game last year and averaged 2.5 assists per game so they should be fine with him starting at the point. This will allow Marks to play off the ball. Boise State’s strength is definitely their backcourt with Drmic, Marks, and Thompson. Boise State’s weakness is their frontcourt.
San Diego
San Diego is coming off a CIT appearance last season in which they went 18-17 overall and 7-11 in the West Coast Conference. They are coached by Bill Grier who is in his 8th season. The good news for San Diego is that they return most of their production from last year including leading scorer Johnny Dee who can really shoot. Their biggest loss is Dennis Kramer who was the team’s leading rebounder as well as third leading scorer. I don’t see San Diego being able to replace Kramer effectively. They will likely attempt to do so with Cal State Northridge transfer Brandon Perry as well as Jito Kok. Kok is a quality defender but won’t be able to score like Kramer was and it has been reported that Perry is somewhat out of shape. Their best recruit is probably Khalil Bedart-Ghani. The team took a trip to Italy this summer which helped their chemistry. Their strength is clearly their backcourt (Dee, Chris Anderson, and Duda Sanadze).
Analysis
This is an interesting match-up. These teams seam very similar to me as they are both experienced and guard heavy with issues in the frontcourt. They haven’t played each other since the 2009-10 season. Both teams play pretty slow in terms of tempo. Let’s start with the basic question: Who is the better team? I think Boise State is the better team though not by that much. Boise State has the better offense. Boise State’s loss of Ryan Watkins is basically offset by San Diego’s loss of Dennis Kramer. This is a neutral site game but it’s a much shorter trip for San Diego. I think senior led Boise State will be focused coming off a disappointing season. Coach Rice has been emphasizing defense which was they struggled with last year. BUT one major concern I have about Boise State is the health of Derick Marks. Check out this story about Boise State’s exhibition game against La Verne.
Marks is such a huge part of what Boise State does that I would be hesitant to back them with cash if he was not 100% healthy. It seems to me like he hasn’t truly tested his surgically repaired knee. Even if he is healthy he might be afraid to give 100% effort against San Diego for fear of his knee giving out. Marks’ knee surgery seems so have flown under the radar due to the fact he hurt himself in May after the season was over playing in a charity game.
With Mark’s knee issue I think San Diego is a live dog and I will back them if I can get +3.5 or better. The line isn’t out yet but once it is I will return and make a recommendation………………………………………………………………..
Line is out! And it is San Diego +8.5. I took it right away but there was a short delay in the game being available in the my picks section and during that time it moved to +6.5. Dang!
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: SAN DIEGO +6.5
TENNESSEE vs VCU (Neutral Site game in Annapolis, Maryland)
NOTE: I WROTE UP MY ANALYSIS AND THEN COMPLETELY CHANGED MY MIND WHEN I LEARNED VCU’s STARTING POINT GUARD BRIANTE WEBBER HAS BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THIS GAME.
Tennessee
Tennessee went 24-13 last season and made it to the Sweet 16 before losing to Michigan by 2. Despite the successful tournament run apparently the Tennessee fan base did not like coach Cuonzo Martin and weren’t upset when he left this offseason to take the job at Cal. Tennessee ended up hiring Donnie Tyndall from Southern Miss (there’s an investigation pending into potential violations while Tyndall was at Southern Miss). Tyndall has a tough road ahead of him considering Tennessee only returns one starter as a lot players either moved on or decided to transfer. Tyndall is known to use a zone defense which is not common in the SEC. He also likes to press. His defensive style is similar to Rick Pitino’s. Tennessee loses their top scorer in Jordan McRae and their 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder Jarnell Stokes. Stokes was an absolute beast and will be extremely tough to replace. Josh Richardson will be the top scoring option on this year’s team. Armani Moore and Robert Hubbs will need to step up this season for Tennessee to be successful. It looks like new recruit Kevin Punter might be forced to play point because of all the players who have not returned from last year. Punter is a natural two guard so there may be a bit of a learning curve for him. Basically Tennessee is a team with a new coach, a lot of new faces, and low expectations. However I think they may be undervalued. BUT I’m thinking this is a bad spot for them (more on that later)
VCU
VCU Is coming off a 26-9 season where they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to Stephen F. Austin. They are coached by Shaka Smart who is in his 6th year. They are a mid major with history of being very successful and being able to compete with the major programs. They even made the Final Four in 2011. They return 3 starters including leading scorer Trevor Graham. However they lose leading rebounder and 2nd leading scorer Juvonte Reddic. They also lose 4th leading scorer Rob Brandenberg. Smart recruited well though and expectations are high for freshman Terry Larrier. Look for returning guard Melvin Johnson to step up his scoring this season. Johnson missed the conference tournament and NCAA Tournament last year with a knee injury. VCU is known for playing a “havoc” defense where they apply extreme pressure to their opponents. Starting PG Briante Webber is considered to be one of the best defenders in the country when it comes to using his hands and generates a ton of steals.
Analysis
I think this is a terrible spot for Tennessee. Tennessee is learning a new offense under a new coach and has to play their first game against a team with a very disruptive defensive style. Tennessee will be using a freshman, Kevin Punter, at point guard whose natural position is 2 guard. He will be guarded by Briante Weber who is one of the best defenders in college basketball. Even if they end up deciding not to use Punter at PG whoever they do use can’t be that good considering all the talk of Punter starting at the 1 spot. I think Tennessee is undervalued and will look to bet them later but not here against VCU’s havoc defense. Plus one of Tennessee’s advantages, the fact they will play a zone defense that is uncommon in the SEC, doesn’t apply to this game against VCU who is not in that conference. If VCU has a weakness it’s probably their frontcourt but that won’t hurt them too much against Tennessee who lost Stokes to the NBA. I just get the feeling that if you asked new Tennessee coach Donnie Tyndall if there was one team he would like to avoid in his first game he might say VCU, lol.
UPDATE: VCU POINT GUARD BRIANTE WEBBER HAS BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THE GAME!!!! OMG. Such a HUGE break for Tennessee in my opinion. Webber is a really important part of what VCU does on defense and the Weber-Punter match-up was what I thought gave VCU the edge. I actually think it makes sense to bet Tennessee now. Waiting for the line to come out……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Line is out.......Tennessee +4.5. I was hoping for a few more points but I still see value here. (Line actually opened Tennessee +1.5)
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: TENNESSEE +4.5
Georgia at Georgia Tech
The pundits are down on Georgia Tech this season because they lost so many players to transfer or injury including leading scorer Trae Golden and leading rebounder Robert Carter. I like their new pieces though and I think they are underrated. Brian Gregory did a good job signing transfers and Marcus Georges-Hunt is primed for a breakout. Georgia’s starting point guard Kenny Gaines is sick and no one is sure exactly he will return.
I think this is a good spot to take Georgia Tech/Fade Georgia and I’m hoping we can get them -3 or better. I’ll be back when the line is out………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Line is out. Georgia Tech -1.5. I'll take it! (Line opened GT -3)
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: GEORGIA TECH -1.5
Have a great season everyone!
Here are the futures I played for anyone interested:
USC 450 to 1
LSU 250 to 1
UNLV 300 to 1
Georgetown 100 to 1
West Virginia 300 to 1