Yesterday had all the makings of a crazy day, and wisely, we avoided all the fracas of the evening, took a nice home dog winner on Angels (+113), and called it a winning Wednesday! It's been a bit of an up-and-down week so far, with a perfect 3-0 Monday, a 1-3 Tuesday, and now a 1-0 Wednesday, but as you can see, 5-3 is a winning tally. With most games being dogs, we're up about 2 and a half units (1 unit on every bet) and hopefully today's short card will move us up another few.
Normally on days with afternoon games, we'd break them down chronologically, but there are so few contests, I think we can just jam 'em all in together at this early hour of the morning!
NL
Chase Utley - There isn't a great deal of experience between these two pitchers and the opposing hitters, but Utley, at 4-for-6, is at an infant stage of "ownage" on Ryan Dempster. He should be able to follow that up with a few more hits today.
Ronny Cedeno - I'm stretching a little with so few games. Cedeno is 4-for-8 off Jason Marquis, who has been struggling with a finger blister over his last few starts.
Garrett Atkins - We'll see if Atkins gets a look in an afternoon game against Paul Maholm, against whom Atkins is batting .500 in 14 AB.
Clint Barmes - Barmes has clubbed Maholm to the tune of 6-for-11 (.545), including a home run.
Troy Tulowitzki - He's 5-for-8 off Maholm; again, not a ton of experience, but beastly numbers in those few at bats.
The Marlins - It's not that the Marlins have incredible numbers against Mike Hampton, but news coming down that Hampton is pitching with a torn meniscus in his right knee should be enough to slow down the already-mediocre lefty just a bit more.
Joey Votta - Votta is just 3-for-7 off Balester, but one of those shots left the yard, and after a prolonged slump, it looks like Votto might be starting to turn things around.
AL
Esteban German - Again, we'll have to check lineups, since German may not play, but damned if he SHOULD - German is 8-for-9 lifetime off Jeremy Sowers.
Alberto Callaspo - Callaspo, suddenly becoming a viable player, is 5-for-8 off Carl Pavano, with a homer and 4 RBI
Billy Butler - This is the one KC player that isn't a surprise on the Roundup, as Butler has gone 4-for-9 off Pavano, and just like Callaspo, all of those at-bats have come this year.
Michael Cuddyer - The resurface of the word "ownage" occurs here, with Cuddyer 7-for-13 off Gil Meche, including 3-for-4 this year with a home run.
Placido Polanco - Still trying to squeeze some info out of guys that have barely faced each other, Polanco is a perfect 3-for-3 off Clay Buchholz
The Red Sox - This is a sneaky play, with J.D. Drew (2-for-6), Jacoby Ellsbury (1-for-3), Casey Kotchman (3-for-6, HR), Mike Lowell (3-for-7), Big Papi (3-for-7, HR), Jason Varitek (1-for-2, 2 RBI), Victor Martinez (.282, 4 HR) all have decent numbers against Verlander. Youkilis's suspension could be big, as he was 4-for-10 with 2 homers off Verlander, but will not be playing.
Ichiro Suzuki - Great career numbers against Sabathia, hitting .429 with 3 homers in just under 30 AB
Kenji Johjima - 5-for-8 off C.C., but remember, folks, this is August-style Sabathia, when all his career numbers go out the window, and C.C. just dominates.
TOP PLAYS
1) Minnesota Twins vs.
Kansas City Royals (1st-5, +145) - This is a great opportunity to get 1.5x odds on a game that is basically a coin flip for the first 5 innings. Gil Meche has been markedly better against the Twins than Carl Pavano has against the Royals, a team that has dealt Pavano an ERA over 8 on the season. There are a handful of players on both teams with success against the opposing starter, but I think this bet comes down to the fact that Meche is healthy for the first time in months, and should be loose, confident, and ready to snap off a few of his nasty breakers. I want no part of either bullpen in this one, since both pens have been bad on the year (aside from the closers), so it's tough to know which will implode on any given game. The Twins got a rare win last night, but make no mistake, this team is slumping, and even the Royals have a shot to get out to an early lead. Meche should be able to last 5 or 6 innings on his own (barring a TERRIBLE start), so we're basically just betting that Meche is better than Pavano.
**WINNER**
2) Chicago Cubs vs.
Philadelphia Phillies (-130) - This is by far the lowest line we'll see on this game, as we're joining the public in a wager on red hot Cliff Lee, and suddenly competent Philadelphia. The Cubs are sliding fast and furious, with the offense sputtering with runners on base, and the bullpen erratic and unpredictable. Yes, home teams are usually pretty good at avoiding a sweep, but with Philly's new ace on the hill, and one of the best road teams in the League trying to do the sweeping, I have a hard time believing the Cubbies will get it together. Ryan Dempster has been decent since his return from the DL, and his numbers against the current Phillies are not all that bad, so I'm thinking this game will be very close in the 6th or 7th inning, and the team with the less spastic bullpen will prevail. You give me 3 innings of Philly pen vs. 3 innings of Cubbie pen, and I'll make the call for Philly every darn time.
**WINNER**
3) Milwaukee Brewers vs.
San Diego Padres (+185) - Big longshot here, but I don't see any reason why the odds for San Diego are this high. The fact of the matter is that the Padres are surging, and just like in the writeup for Philly above, while it is generally difficult for a road team to sweep a decent home ballclub, the Brewers have been awful at home lately, and have a bullpen that is tanking as quickly as any I can remember. The Padres, on the other hand, are playing very good baseball behind a young team playing with energy and not afraid to get involved in close games. Today, San Diego gives another rookie a shot on the hill in Cesar Carrillo, who has marginal Minor League numbers, but from everything I've read, he was getting better with every start, and is hot coming into his debut. Milwaukee has Manny Parra, who struggled in his only career start against the Padres, and rarely goes deep in a ballgame, which means, yet again, the Brewers are going to have to rely on their pen. - LOSER