No Roundups over the weekend, and after one of the most sensational runs that I've ever experienced, Friday put a little bit of a damper on things. A few tough losses meant the weekend off wouldn't be such a bad thing as a nice recovery time, and we were all able to enjoy some heated battles between the Yanks and the Sox. I'm sure everyone know how those turned out. Today, a short card, but no afternoon games, so we can, at the very least, take our time, watch the line movement, and make sure we get some supremely succulent top plays, based on matchups, momentum, and value...
NL
Laynce Nix - A fresh name for the roundup, Nix is 4-for-11 off Kyle Lohse with a homer and 2 batted in.
Colby Rasmus & Skip Schumaker - Just in case one (or both) aren't in the starting lineup, it's worth noting both are 4-for-10 off Reds starter Johnny Cueto.
Doug Davis - Davis is rounding back into early-season form, and after holding the Mets to a team BA of .190 in his last start against them, he gets the Mets in Arizona. Jeff Francoeur and David Wright are a combined 5-for-29 off Davis.
Orlando Hudson - The O-dawg is batting .368 off Jonathan Sanchez, so we'll see if Torre rearranges his order.
Matt Kemp - Kemp is hitting .385 off Sanchez with a pair of "ribbies".
Russ Martin - Martin's power numbers are still nowhere to be found, but his average is coming up, and he's already 4-for-9 off Sanchez in his career.
AL
The A's - Jeremy Guthrie couldn't possibly pitch much worse than he did the last time he faced the A's, when they hit him to the tune of a .778 average over just 2/3 of an inning.
Miguel Cabrera - This kid is damn good. To make matters better (or worse?), he's 4-for-11 off Brad Penny with 3 homers and 7 RBI.
J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Casey Kotchman, David Ortiz - All four are batting over .400 off Edwin Jackson with 10 or more AB with a homer and 15 RBI between the group. Jackson has never beaten the Red Sox.
Jose Lopez - Lopez is 5-for-11 off Gavin Floyd, who has a career ERA against the Mariners over 7.
Ichiro Suzuki - He has the exact same numbers off Floyd as Lopez.
TOP PLAYS
1) Baltimore Orioles vs.
Oakland Athletics (+149) - Here's the jaw-dropping comment of the day -- Gio Gonzalez is not that awful. He has pitched pretty darn well over his last 3 starts, his confidence is building, and those starts have come against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers. Today, he tackles a Baltimore team that hits the ball relatively well at home, but let's be frank, the Orioles aren't very good. The A's have been hitting the ball well with their newer, younger lineup, they have momentum coming off a nice road series against the lowly Royals, and have the superior pen. In addition, the A's took a hammer to O's starter Jeremy Guthrie earlier this year, pounding the chump into submission in his worst start of the year. Now, he won't do that poorly again (unless we're the luckiest suckers on the planet), and in all likelihood he'll pitch okay. When the starters leave, I expect this thing will be close, which means taking the team +149 is the value here, and I think they can win it. - WINNER!
2)
Seattle Mariners (+117) vs. Chicago White Sox - Probably not the most popular pick here, but I have a few reasons I like it. First, the Mariners, with Franklin Gutierrez back in the lineup, are positively crushing the ball, batting over .300 as a team in their last few series. Second, they have good history against Gavin Floyd, despite his fine work over the past few months. You can see in the Roundup that Lopez and Ichiro both have good numbers, and some of the other folks have hit Floyd hard, but just too few at-bats to get a good read on 'em. Third, Lucas French has never faced the Sox, which should give him a slight edge the first two times through the order. Fourth, money is coming in on the Sox, pretty heavy might I add, but the chalk on Chicago has actually dropped, which leads me to believe the books are trying to trap White Sox bettors. Take the home dog with a solid chance at a close win. - WINNER!
3)
Boston Red Sox (-105) vs. Detroit Tigers - Let us not forget, the Tigers are garbage on the road. For as bad as Boston has been playing, and as solid as the Tigers looked at Comerica over the last week, they are a completely different beast away from home. Compound that with the fact that Edwin Jackson has never defeated the Red Sox (see Roundup for some scary opposing numbers). Now, a bad game from Jackson is still 6 innings, 3 runs, but I think the Sox put up a run or two late and win to break their little sad streak by the final score of 5-3. From a line perspective, despite a ton of morning money coming in on Detroit, the line remained unchanged, so once again it looks like the books are defending against a late (sharp) surge on Boston, and we'll go with the sharps on this one. - WINNER!