Lost our biggest MLB play on Sunday as the Cardinals pen just couldn't get it done, which was my only concern, too. That doesn't change the outcome, and we move on. Here's the NL and time to watch some basketball.
966 BOS-1.5 (+125) Bookmaker.com vs 965 BAL |
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Analysis: We don't usually play these games, and although I tried not to as well as factor in the Marathon, I am playing the Red Sox RL. They've hammered Chen, had the comeback last night (hence O's pen used) and honestly, if they're going to win this game it's probably by more than one run. If not, oh well, but I'm not laying the chalk. Hardy is supposed to be out, Boston has the "A" team lineup, and simply see the Orioles being over whelmed. I grew up in Fenway/Boston, and know full well the emotion that will be behind this team. If the Orioles don't score first, this could be a beating.
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Pirates-Reds: As often as I am wrong on the Reds you shouldn't take anything I say about them too seriously. However, with the overused Pirates bullpen if we're betting on Pittsburgh we probably need Liriano to pitch deep. He just faced the Reds and had a reasonable outing, and KNOWING he has to eat innings, I would lean under in this game. Leake's been a beast, but he's thrown a lot of pitches. I still lean under. Leake need to pitch deep, too. Although the Reds won handily, they did allow 11 hits and used three relievers. Pirates late and under.
Cardinals-Mets: I suppose the tendency here is to take the Mets (and the early money has) given that the Mets beat Atlanta and the Cardinals lost late and used bullpen two straight days. Mejia hasn't thrown more than six innings yet, so backing New York here means probably backing their bullpen, and I am not sure I'm ready for that. Tyler Lyons IS a strikeout pitcher, but how long he can go is also a big question. Slight helping breeze, so I think this game stays low scoring til late, and I'd simply have to be coin flipping at this point as to which bullpen we like least.
Miami-Atlanta: Braves in a first game back situation after a tough extra inning loss, which is always a red flag. Miami is doing everything well, even finding a way to win with only four hits against Seattle on Sunday. I faded Teheran against the Phillies the other day when he tossed a three-hitter, so the tendency might be to lay the chalk, which I will not do. Keohler hasn't been touched at all, but there's a couple of Atlanta players w/success. Either way, given the situation, I would take the Fish RL and think that the Braves might win it late.
Cubs-D-Backs: Who would have thought Arroyo would be +120 against the Cubs? Even with Wood pitching, that's a bit telling right there. Arizona is in total free-fall, and as I just said, although the Cubs lost, they pounded out 11 hits. Wood has already had three 100+ pitch games, so that could be an issue. He's given up hits, but been able to limit damage, and sooner or later the damn may break. The Cubs saw plenty of Arroyo when he was with the Reds, and they haven't hit him much. Because this game is in Wrigley, the total might be a bit too high. Arizona a long trip after more losses, so Cubs and under.
San Diego-Milwaukee: Brewers in a first game back after a brutal series with the Pirates, either extra innings, late rallys and mood swings, or both. Tough spot for them but Peralta has been fantastic and keeps the ball on the ground more often than not. We know Cashner can pitch and he's almost a mirror of Peralta in that he has the groundball thing going on, so I lean under, at least first five. Padres won't get to Milwaukee til after midnight, either. However, this could go to 7 (the total) and the roof MAY be open with a helping breeze, so at 7 I could be convinced to take the over for the game.
Giants-Rockies: San Francisco holds on for a late win in San Diego, and had to use four relievers, so that could be a case for not backing Vogelsong here. He did have a good outing against the Dodgers, but again, hasn't pitched deep often. Slight helping breeze in Coors, which as usual has the total over 10, which I actually think may be too high. De La Rosa had a great game against the Padres, but he'd been hit hard in his first three starts. I think if the Giants have their "A" lineup out there I could be convinced to take them at plus-money. Colorado is going to go through even more of a terrible bullpen against the Phillies, so lean Giants a bit but this is one game we HAVE to see BOTH lineups.
Phillies-Dodgers: Would would think that Lee would be a dog to Maholm. That tells you what they think of the Dodgers at home, really. Los Angeles with an easy win at home, so quite well rested, and the Phillies are playing late and long in Colorado, so they're getting to LA late and probably tired and possibly after blowing another late lead. Maholm will give them six good innings, IMO, and give way to a rested pen, but one that's really been hit or miss. Phillies pen has been terrible and obviously getting worse in Colorado, so a bet on the Phillies is probably a bet simply on Lee. But, Hanley and Adrian have hammered him enough for me to think the Dodgers are the winners.