My last 3 baseball plays have all beat the closing line BUT they have all lost It has been very frustrating and hopefully we can turn it around, although we are still +14.2 units for the season which I am very proud of.
For Tuesday I am on the WHITE SOX-METS OVER 6.5 (Santiago vs Harvey). I have watched every Matt Harvey start this season and he is just not the same pitcher now that he was at the start of the year. His numbers are still terrific but at the beginning of the season he had a lot better command of his pitches which is what made him close to unhittable. Lately he has been struggling to locate his fastball as well as his secondary pitches. The White Sox faced James Shields, who is a quality pitcher, in their previous game so I think they will be on top of their game in terms of being able capitalize on any mistakes in location. When Harvey struggles with his command he throws a lot of pitches and doesn't go deep in games. He only went 5.1 innings his last start. An early exit for Harvey would mean more innings for the Mets' bullpen which is one of the worst in baseball. Also Harvey's last start was supposed to be Saturday but it got rained out which means his routine is probably all screwed up. The White Sox send Hector Santiago to the mound. Santiago has a nice ERA but he looks to be a converted reliever who doesn't go deep in games. He has made 8 appearances this year but has only started once. The Mets are back home and well rested looking to avenge a bad loss to the Braves that ended their road trip so I could see them having some quality at bats against Santiago.
The Mets have an organizational philosophy of taking pitches and working counts deep. This is something Sandy Alderson and his lieutenants believe in strongly. In a contract year Terry Collins is making sure this philosophy gets enforced. I think this spells trouble for Santiago who will likely be on a pitch count. The Mets fan in me would love nothing more than for Harvey to throw 8 innings of 1 hit ball but my head tells me there in value on the over in this one.
+14.2 units STD (season to date) (all plays 2 units/all plays documented here: /pregame-forums/f/11/t/539667.aspx )