Editor's note: Although I have been doing well this baseball season I never consider an individual pick to be anything close to a lock. My baseball picks are part of a long term 'grind it out' strategy that will include a lot of losers. I caution you not to put a large % of your bankroll on any single one of my picks. This money management strategy applies to every sport but it applies to baseball the most in my case.
For Thursday I like the BLUE JAYS +115 vs the Red Sox (Dempster vs Happ). Dempster has decent numbers but his last 2 outings have been against the Astros and Royals. Also Boston is only hitting .235 on the season vs lefties. I think Toronto is a solid home dog.
For Thursday I also like the NATIONALS +145 at the Braves (Haren vs Medlen). Haren has a high ERA but his K/BB ratio remains solid. Medlen has a nice ERA but 4 of his 5 starts have come against the Marlins, Pirates, Royals, and Phillies, all in the bottom half of baseball in runs scored. Plus Medlen's xFIP is over a point higher than his ERA and his peripherals are less than impressive.
**EDIT: WAS LINE MOVING AGAINST US DUE TO FACT BRYCE HARPER HURT HIMSELF IN WED NIGHT"S GAME
UPDATE: HARPER IS IN THE LINEUP
+19.3 units STD (season to date) (all plays 2 units/all plays documented here: /pregame-forums/f/11/t/539667.aspx )