HOU @ NYY
The 12-23 Astros were beaten last night by the 14-13 Yankees at Yankee stadium last nightin the first game of this series
Starting Pitchers
HOU
|
Arrighetti - R
|
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.96
|
8.27
|
3.74
|
3.39
|
4.12
|
4.12
|
0.377
|
0.309
|
25.9%
|
12.3%
|
NYY
|
Rodon - L
|
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.28
|
3.68
|
4.47
|
4.78
|
4.59
|
4.14
|
0.335
|
0.335
|
22.6%
|
8.800
|
Edge – None, I don’t trust either of these guys.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
RK
|
R/IP
|
RK
|
WHIP
|
RK
|
ERA
|
RK
|
K%
|
RK
|
BB%
|
RK
|
HOU
|
5
|
11
|
3
|
8
|
69.0%
|
19
|
0.57
|
20
|
1.38
|
19
|
4.44
|
21
|
22.4%
|
14
|
10.1%
|
19
|
NYY
|
12
|
5
|
16
|
6
|
76.0%
|
3
|
0.34
|
2
|
1.09
|
3
|
2.27
|
1
|
20.8%
|
24
|
9.2%
|
13
|
Edge – NYY big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HOU
|
4.40
|
16
|
0.327
|
6
|
113
|
5
|
0.149
|
14
|
8.3%
|
19
|
-2.8
|
25
|
40.4%
|
6
|
6.8%
|
23
|
16.9%
|
1
|
NYY
|
4.76
|
10
|
0.325
|
8
|
112
|
8
|
0.150
|
12
|
10.9%
|
1
|
-3.9
|
27
|
40.4%
|
6
|
8.3%
|
7
|
20.6%
|
10
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: There’s no clear offensive edge here for eithger team. The Yanks are averaging about a third of a run more thn their Astros, but their respective wOBAs, wRC+s and ISOs are almost identical. Neither Spencer Arrighetti or Carlos Rodon has shown me anywhere near enough to warrant a bet. The only significant edge I see in this game in in the bullpen matchup. The Yankees have one of the best pens in the league, while the Astgos pen has been lousy. If thid game is close late ,and I think it might be, the Yanks elite pen will be the difference maker
Pick - NYY ML in a side bet
BOS @ ATL
The 19-17 Red Sox were beaten last night 4-2 by the 21-12 Braves at Truist Patk in the first game of this series.
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BOS
|
Pivetta R
|
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATL
|
Sale
|
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
0.95
|
3.44
|
2.81
|
3.01
|
2.74
|
2.77
|
0.260
|
0.270
|
29.0%
|
4.80
|
Edge – ATL
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
RK
|
R/IP
|
RK
|
WHIP
|
RK
|
ERA
|
RK
|
K%
|
RK
|
BB%
|
RK
|
BOS
|
7
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
65.9%
|
28
|
0.51
|
18
|
1.20
|
10
|
3.30
|
8
|
22.8%
|
12
|
7.3%
|
1
|
ATL
|
9
|
6
|
9
|
5
|
75.0%
|
8
|
0.46
|
10
|
1.27
|
16
|
3.52
|
10
|
22.3%
|
15
|
7.3%
|
1
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BOS
|
4.63
|
11
|
0.321
|
9
|
102
|
14
|
0.157
|
7
|
8.8%
|
12
|
-0.3
|
17
|
38.0%
|
19
|
8.1%
|
9
|
26.0%
|
27
|
ATL
|
5.09
|
3
|
0.332
|
3
|
113
|
5
|
0.160
|
6
|
8.2%
|
21
|
2.3
|
6
|
45.1%
|
1
|
9.0%
|
4
|
23.2%
|
18
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: The Braves are the better hitting team in this game. They average about a half a run more per game, with an 11-point higher wOBA and a 10-point higher wRC+, as well as better hard-hit and barrel rates. These two bullpens look pretty evenly matched and that brings us to the starting pitching matchup between Nick Pivetta and Chris Sale. Pivetta (elbow) has been activated from the Iland wi;; start this game for the Red Sox. He has been on the IL since April 9 with a right elbow flexor strain. Pivetta made a rehab start with AAA Worcester on Thursday and gave up 4 earned runs on 3 hits and 4 walks while striking out 5 over 3 innings. Despite the less-than-stellar results, the Red Sox were apparently encouraged by how Pivetta felt physically in the outing and are eager to add him to the rotation. Pivetta started two games for the Red Sox at the A’s and at the Mariners, with both grading as above average. In thise two starts, he gave up a total of 1 run on 8 hits and a walk over 11 innings with 13 Ks. The Braves decided to take a shot on 35-year old Chris Sale and he’s rewarded them so far with five of his six starts grading as above average. Sale’s WHIP is good and his ERA is solid with ERA metrics that are mostly about a half a run lower than his ERA. Sale is striking out more than a batter per inning and he's got a decent walk rate too. I still consider the Brave to be elite and the Red Sox a .500 team. The Braves are better than the Red Sox and Sale is better than Pivetta.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
SEA @ MINN
The 20-16 Mariners beat the 20-15 Twins 10-6 at Target Field last night last night to even this series at one game apiece.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SEA
|
Kirby - R
|
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.04
|
3.76
|
2.85
|
2.07
|
3.12
|
3.03
|
0.276
|
0.272
|
26.3%
|
2.60
|
MINN
|
Paddack - R
|
|
(2/6)
|
(4/6)
|
1.47
|
4.78
|
4.59
|
4.24
|
3.92
|
3.97
|
0.469
|
0.345
|
19.0%
|
4.90
|
Edge – SEA big
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
RK
|
R/IP
|
RK
|
WHIP
|
RK
|
ERA
|
RK
|
K%
|
RK
|
BB%
|
RK
|
SEA
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
2
|
77.9%
|
2
|
0.34
|
3
|
1.07
|
2
|
2.72
|
3
|
24.6%
|
9
|
9.1%
|
12
|
MINN
|
8
|
4
|
11
|
4
|
80.2%
|
1
|
0.38
|
4
|
1.16
|
7
|
3.08
|
7
|
29.3%
|
2
|
8.8%
|
9
|
Edge – SEA, but close
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SEA
|
3.75
|
22
|
0.297
|
23
|
96
|
29
|
0.139
|
18
|
9.1%
|
10
|
-1.4
|
21
|
41.5%
|
4
|
7.7%
|
12
|
28.2%
|
30
|
MINN
|
4.63
|
12
|
0.321
|
9
|
109
|
9
|
0.162
|
4
|
8.5%
|
17
|
2.1
|
7
|
37.5%
|
22
|
7.0%
|
20
|
24.0%
|
21
|
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: I think that the Mariners are the better team here, but the stats say it could be close. The Twins are for sure the better hitting team. They score almost a full run more per game than the Mariners with a 24-point better wOBA and a 13-point better wRC+. The Twins also have a solid bullpen, but the Mariners’ pen is even better. It’s one of the best units in baseball. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I give the Meriners a big edge here with George Kirby facing Chris Paddack. George Kirby has delivered above average starts in five of his seven outings. His WHIP and ERA are both good, but his his ERA metrics are all at least one run to as much as two runs lower than his ERA. I attribute that to bad luck on batted balls as his .331 BABIP is 23 points higher than is was a season ago and I expect that to come down some. Kirby’s K rate is superb and he’s barely walking anyone. He’s as solid as they come. Chris Paddack has struggled with just two of his six starts grading as above average and the other four grading as below. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics area all high. His wOBA is 46 points higher than league average and his xwOBA is a whopping 87 points higher. Across the board, Kirby has the much better stat profile
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML in a side bet