For what it’s worth, yesterday was on hell of a crazy day. I somehow pushed a button that I shouldn’t have and totally screwed up one section of my Excel spreadsheet. I wasted an hour this morning fixing it, but I finally did, and in the process, I discovered that the parlay card that I posted was incomplete. I didn’t list the Braves 1st 5 and full game MLs. I did, however, cover that game as well as all the others in my breakdowns. AS a result, my breakdown are somewhat abbreviated and late.
My results were screwy as well. The Rangers got me off to a great start with an 11 run 2nd that put their game in Oakland away early. Then came the Orioles and what in th hell happened in DC. I appreciate that journeyman Trevor Williams is having a great season with the Nats and I love his politics, but this season his numbers are unreal, He’s never been anywhere near this good and all of a sudden, out of nowhere, at 32, he’s suddenly elite? I had the O’s 1st 5 and full game on my parlay card and that one game damn near killed my evening, putting me in a -28 unit hole!
Even more amazing, I had seven other legs on my parlay card, the Rays 1st 5 and full game MLs, the Cubs 1st 5 ML, the Braves 1st 5 and full game MLs, and the Dodgers 1st 5 and full game MLs. They all cashed! I also had 2 side bet on the Rangers ML and the Phils ML. They both cashed as well! The Orioles ended up being my only loser! II finished the evening +18.72 units, leaving me +31.03 units for the season. I didn’t expect it, but I’ll sure as hell take it.
Today we have a full slate with a bunch of day games including several that I think I like, so let’s get right to it. Here’s my very large card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
174
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
168
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
166
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
145
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
157
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
164
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
LAD ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
BALT ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
TB ML
|
133
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
ATL ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
133
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
118
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
BALT ML
|
116
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
-101
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
TB ML
|
-103
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
109
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
ATL ML
|
109
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
131
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
128
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
160
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
TB ML
|
129
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
ATL ML
|
140
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
TB ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
118
|
2
|
|
TB ML
|
ATL ML
|
118
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
|
125
|
2
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
|
-115
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
|
-135
|
2
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
|
-118
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on today’s earliest games. I’ll post the late games later.
TOR @ PHIL
The 16-20 Blue Jays got blown out 10-1 by the 26-11, NL East division leading Phils.
Starting Pitchers
1:05
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TOR
|
Bassitt - R
|
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.68
|
5.45
|
5.55
|
5.07
|
4.34
|
4.49
|
0.374
|
0.368
|
20.7%
|
11.0%
|
PHIL
|
Nola - R
|
|
(4/7)
|
(3/7)
|
1.15
|
3.32
|
3.93
|
4.44
|
3.78
|
3.94
|
0.301
|
0.316
|
25.5%
|
5.7%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
RK
|
R/IP
|
RK
|
WHIP
|
RK
|
ERA
|
RK
|
K%
|
RK
|
BB%
|
RK
|
TOR
|
6
|
4
|
9
|
3
|
68.4%
|
20
|
0.63
|
27
|
1.41
|
23
|
5.31
|
30
|
19.2%
|
27
|
10.2%
|
20
|
PHIL
|
6
|
4
|
12
|
6
|
67.1%
|
23
|
0.58
|
21
|
1.44
|
26
|
4.84
|
24
|
25.6%
|
7
|
9.5%
|
14
|
Edge – PHIL, slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
TOR
|
3.66
|
24
|
0.301
|
18
|
96
|
20
|
0.136
|
19
|
9.5%
|
6
|
-3.9
|
27
|
35.6%
|
27
|
6.9%
|
21
|
20.5%
|
8
|
PHIL
|
4.94
|
6
|
0.330
|
4
|
113
|
5
|
0.154
|
8
|
10.0%
|
4
|
1.4
|
8
|
40.1%
|
9
|
7.6%
|
14
|
22.3%
|
15
|
Edge – PHIL, big
Conclusion: The Phils are the better team here. They are the much better hitting team and it’s not close. Other than a slightly higher K rate, the Phi’s hold all the stat edges, averaging more than a run more per game than the Jays with a 29-point better wOBA, a 17-point better wRC+, and the list goes on. The Phils bullpen isn’t good, but it has still performed a little better than the Jays pen. As for the starting pitching matchup between Chris Bassitt and Aaron Nola that seems pretty clear. Bassitt is off to a horrible strt with more below than above average starts and his WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all high. Nola hasn’t been as consistent as he;s been in previous seasons, but he still has more starts grading as above average as belowe and his stat profile is across the board mch better than Bassitt’s. The Phils are better than the Jays. I expected the Jays to contend with the O’s and Yanks in the AL East, but they have underachieved big time and there’s rising speculation that the Jays will be sellers by the trade deadline. I’m betting on the better team and the better starting pitcher and that’s the Phils and Nola.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full gane MLs in a series of parlays
NYM @ STL
The 18-19 Mets beat the 15-21 Cards 7-5 at Busch Stadum kast night, after winning the first game of this series 4-3 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
1:15
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
NYM
|
Quintana - L
|
|
(3/7)
|
(3/7)
|
1.54
|
5.20
|
5.92
|
4.16
|
4.50
|
4.85
|
0.338
|
0.278
|
15.3%
|
9.8%
|
STL
|
Gray - R
|
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
0.86
|
0.89
|
2.33
|
1.56
|
2.23
|
2.35
|
0.218
|
0.246
|
33.3%
|
4.4%
|
Edge – STL big
Bullpens
N/A This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
NYM
|
4.47
|
15
|
0.307
|
17
|
102
|
14
|
0.135
|
21
|
8.7%
|
14
|
-2.0
|
22
|
36.7%
|
24
|
7.6%
|
14
|
20.0%
|
6
|
STL
|
3.5
|
29
|
0.285
|
28
|
85
|
25
|
0.117
|
26
|
9.3%
|
9
|
0.0
|
14
|
36.2%
|
26
|
6.3%
|
25
|
22.8%
|
16
|
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: The Mets are probably the better team gere. They are certainly the better hitting team and that;s not all that close. However the biggest mismatch in this game is the starting pitching matchup between Jose Quintana and Sonny Gray. Quintana is what he;s always been, a decent lefty wgo;ll giee you .500 ball and most of innings. His WHIP, ERA and metrics are all mediocre and he walks more batters than he should considering that he doesn’t miss many bts. Gray;s statistical profile is elite with all five of his starts grading as aboe average and an outstanding WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics, as well as a 333.3% K rate and low walk rate.
Pick – STL 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
SD @ CHI C
The 19-20 Padres lost the second game of this series 3-2 last night, after winning the first game 6-3.
Starting Pitchers
2:20
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SD
|
Cease R
|
|
(6/7)
|
(1/7)
|
0.80
|
2.55
|
3.33
|
2.48
|
3.48
|
3.28
|
0.210
|
0.293
|
29.8%
|
|
CHI C
|
Wesneski - R
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.7%
|
Edge – SD huge
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SD
|
5.00
|
6
|
0.326
|
7
|
116
|
3
|
0.153
|
10
|
8.6%
|
15
|
0.9
|
10
|
38.8%
|
15
|
7.7%
|
12
|
19.8%
|
4
|
CHI C
|
4.70
|
11
|
0.313
|
14
|
103
|
12
|
0.154
|
8
|
9.5%
|
6
|
0.5
|
11
|
37.3%
|
23
|
8.2%
|
8
|
23.0%
|
17
|
Edge – SD, but close
Conclusion: This is another game where I’m not sure who the better team is. The Padres are the better hitting team. They are averaging about a third of a run more per game than than the Cubs with a 13-point better wOBA and wRC+, but it’s all very close. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and here’s where the Padres should have a huge advantage. Dylan Cease is off to a great start with his new team. He has started seven games for the Padres and six of them graded as above average with just one grading as below. Cease’s WHIP is under 1.00 and his ERA is under 3.00 with good ERA metrics and a wOBA that’s almost 100 points lower than league average. He has an elite 28.8% K rate . The only troubling stats are a high 10% walk rate and an xwOBA that’s about 80 points higher than his actual one. I can’t really explain why Cease’s xWOBA is that much higher, but his .186 BABIP is a career low and more than 100 points lower than his career .291, and his 60.9% strand rate is also a career low and 13% lower than is career 74.1% rate. Both Cease’s BABIP and strand rate should increase as he season progresses. Slade Cecconi, on the other hand, has only made two starts this season, at the Giants and the Mariners and both resulted in quality starts. Cecconi has given up just 3 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 12 innings with 11 Ks. It’s a small sample size, but impressive nonetheless. The right hander relies primarily on his 94.3 mph four. Haden Wesneski has only started two games for the Cubs with one grading as above average and one as below. Between his two starts and two appearances out of the Cubs’ pen, Wesneski has given up a total of 2 runs (1 earned)on 9 hits and 3 walks over 16. Innings with 14 Ks. It’s not enough of a sample size for a valid stat profile, but Weneski’s been OK. Cease should be the better starting pitcher here..
Pick – SD 1st 5 ML in a side bet
MIA @ LAD8-25The 10-28 Marlins were beaten 8-2 by the 24-13 Dodgers last night at Dodger Stadium, after losing the first game of this series 6-3 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
3:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIA
|
Weathers - L
|
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.37
|
4.54
|
5.07
|
5.08
|
4.81
|
4.43
|
0.340
|
0.354
|
19.0%
|
9.2%
|
LAD
|
Stone - R
|
|
(3/6)
|
(2/6)
|
1.35
|
4.06
|
4.04
|
3.76
|
4.53
|
4.75
|
0.306
|
0.320
|
17.4%
|
9.8%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
RK
|
R/IP
|
RK
|
WHIP
|
RK
|
ERA
|
RK
|
K%
|
RK
|
BB%
|
RK
|
MIA
|
4
|
11
|
5
|
8
|
67.2%
|
22
|
0.61
|
24
|
1.47
|
28
|
4.86
|
25
|
21.7%
|
22
|
10.3%
|
21
|
LAD
|
6
|
7
|
11
|
5
|
70.0%
|
15
|
0.46
|
10
|
1.09
|
3
|
3.41
|
9
|
21.8%
|
21
|
8.3%
|
8
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MIA
|
3.74
|
23
|
0.276
|
29
|
77
|
28
|
0.111
|
28
|
6.7%
|
29
|
0.1
|
13
|
36.3%
|
25
|
6.3%
|
25
|
20.2%
|
7
|
LAD
|
5.55
|
1
|
0.356
|
1
|
133
|
1
|
0.175
|
2
|
10.9%
|
1
|
0.5
|
11
|
44.4%
|
2
|
9.8%
|
2
|
21.0%
|
11
|
Edge – LAD, huge
Conclusion: There’s absolutely no question who is the better team here and it’s not at all close. The Dodgers hold just about every edge in this matchup. They have the way better offense. They average almost two full runs more per game with an 80-point better wOBA and a 56-point better wRC+. As crazy as it sounds, the Dodger also have the better of two lousy bullpens. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and wghile I’m not all that impressed with either one, I do give Gavin Stone an edge over Ryan Weathers. Weathers has started seven with three grading as above average and three grrading as below. His wHIP and ERA are both mediocre and his ERA metrics are all even higher than his ERA. Stone;s numbers are also mediocre, but he at least has three above average starts to just two below average ones and the rest of his stat profile, while also mediocre, is nonetheless mostly better than Weathers. I don’t trust either guy enough for a 1st 5 bert, but the Dodgers are the way better team and I trust them to just win the damned game.
Pick – LAD full game ML in a series of parlays
ARIZ @ CIN
The 16-20 Diamondbacks beat the 16-19 Reds 6-2 yesterday at Great American in the first game of this series.
Starting Pitcher
6:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ARIZ
|
Montgomery - L
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CIN
|
Ashcraft - R
|
|
(3/6)
|
(3/6)
|
1.27
|
3.63
|
4.01
|
4.07
|
3.47
|
3.68
|
0.305
|
0.319
|
17.8%
|
8.3%
|
Edge – ARIZ, I think
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
5.03
|
5
|
0.315
|
12
|
103
|
12
|
0.136
|
19
|
9.4%
|
8
|
-0.5
|
18
|
37.6%
|
20
|
7.5%
|
17
|
19.2%
|
3
|
CIN
|
4.4
|
16
|
0.294
|
25
|
83
|
27
|
0.150
|
12
|
9.1%
|
10
|
7.0
|
1
|
38.9%
|
14
|
7.8%
|
10
|
26.8%
|
28
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: Neither of these teams has performed as well as expected, so it’s hard to say which has been the bigger disappointment, but I’d probably say the Dbacks given their surprising World Series run last season. The Dbacks ae the better hitting team, averaging over a half a run more per game with a 21-point better wOB and a 20-point better wRC+. Hitting matter when you’re playing in that bandbox known as Great American. Thatbring is to the starting pitching matchup and I’m inclined to give the edge to veteran lefty Jordan Montgomery over Graham Ashcraft. Montgomery has only started three games for the D backs after signing a free agent contract after the season had already started. He has given up 10 runs on 17 hits and 4 walks over 16 innings with 8 Ks. Those numbers don’t jump out at you, but Montgomery has a proved track record including that posseason run with the Rangers last season. Ashcraft’s entire stat profile reads not bad, but mediocre. I’m not sure that Montgomery has pitched any better so far, but he missed all of sprin training and based on his history should get better and rounds into shape. Her got blasted by the Dodgers in his lastg starftg, butg that was the Dodgers. He was fairly good in his firstg two outings at SF and STL. Montgomery wes he better pitcher last season by a wide margin and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for five innings in this matchup.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 ML in a side bet.
BALT @ WASH
I don’t know how, but the 23-12 Orioles got beat by the 18-17 Nats in the first game of this series between two geographic rivals last night.
Starting Pitchers
6:45
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BALT
|
Bradish - R
|
|
(1/1)
|
(0/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WASH
|
Parker - L
|
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
1.08
|
2.53
|
2.79
|
1.92
|
3.10
|
3.42
|
0.244
|
0.269
|
22.1%
|
4.7%
|
Edge – BALT
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
RK
|
R/IP
|
RK
|
WHIP
|
RK
|
ERA
|
RK
|
K%
|
RK
|
BB%
|
RK
|
BALT
|
8
|
4
|
11
|
7
|
70.0%
|
15
|
0.46
|
10
|
1.11
|
5
|
3.54
|
11
|
26.9%
|
4
|
8.2%
|
7
|
WASH
|
8
|
5
|
11
|
5
|
73.9%
|
9
|
0.46
|
10
|
1.42
|
25
|
3.81
|
16
|
21.9%
|
18
|
9.9%
|
17
|
Edge – BALT
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
BALT
|
5.14
|
2
|
0.330
|
4
|
116
|
3
|
0.194
|
1
|
6.7%
|
29
|
4.4
|
3
|
43.3%
|
3
|
10.3%
|
1
|
22.2%
|
WASH
|
4.14
|
18
|
0.301
|
18
|
93
|
23
|
0.130
|
23
|
8.8%
|
12
|
4.1
|
4
|
38.3%
|
18
|
6.3%
|
25
|
21.7%
|
Edge – BALT big
Conclusion: I don’t care what happened last night, there’s still not much doubt about which team is the better one in this matchup. It’s still the Orioles. The O’s are clearly the much better hitting team here. They average a run more per game than the Nats with a 29-point better wOBA, and a 23-point better wRC+. The only edges that the Nats have is that they walk a little more than the O’s and strike out a little less. Everything else points to the O’s. Neither bullpen has performed very well, but of the two, the O’s pen has the better WHIP, ERA, K and walk rates. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. The Orioles reinstated Kyle Bradish (elbow) from the IL last week and in his first start v the Yankees at Camden Yards, Bradish gave up just 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks over 4.2 innings while striking out 5. It was an encouraging debut from Bradish after he'd missed the first month of the season with a partially torn UCL. He averaged 95 mph with his sinker while inducing six whiffs on his slider, both in line with his numbers from last season Mitchell Parker has started four games for the Nats with two grading as above average and two grading as below He has given up 6 runs on 19 hits and 4 walks over 21,1 innings with 19 Ks. As long as he’s healthy, and right now he seems to be, Bradish is better than Parker and despite what happened last night, the Orioles are much better than the Nats. That’s how I’m betting it.
Pick – BALT 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays
CHI WS @ TB
The now 8-28 White Sox were beaten 5-1 by the 19-18 Raysin the second game of this series at Tropicana Field last night after losing the first game 8-2 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
6:50
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
(8/32)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHI WS
|
Flexen - R
|
|
(1/5)
|
(4/5)
|
1.31
|
4.85
|
4.87
|
5.40
|
5.32
|
5.28
|
0.222
|
0.348
|
13.6%
|
9.6%
|
TB
|
Civale - R
|
|
(2/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.34
|
6.14
|
3.66
|
4.32
|
3.43
|
3.55
|
0.329
|
0.305
|
24.5%
|
6.3%
|
Edge – TB
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
RK
|
R/IP
|
RK
|
WHIP
|
RK
|
ERA
|
RK
|
K%
|
RK
|
BB%
|
RK
|
CHI WS
|
3
|
11
|
5
|
9
|
68.3%
|
21
|
0.61
|
24
|
1.48
|
29
|
4.33
|
19
|
20.7%
|
25
|
11.9%
|
29
|
TB
|
10
|
6
|
11
|
8
|
66.4%
|
24
|
0.66
|
30
|
1.44
|
26
|
5.06
|
26
|
20.4%
|
26
|
12.1%
|
30
|
Edge – None, they both stink
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CHI WS
|
2.91
|
30
|
0.268
|
30
|
71
|
30
|
0.110
|
29
|
7.1%
|
28
|
-2.8
|
25
|
34.2%
|
30
|
5.5%
|
30
|
23.6%
|
20
|
TB
|
4.11
|
19
|
0.298
|
22
|
97
|
18
|
0.112
|
27
|
7.4%
|
26
|
-0.1
|
15
|
35.2%
|
28
|
5.6%
|
29
|
24.2%
|
23
|
Edge – TB, but only by default
Conclusion: Neither of these teams is very good. The best way for me to phrase this is that the Rays aren’t as bad as the putrid White Sox. The Rays are a lousy hitting team, but the White Sox are even worse. They rank dead last in runs per game, wOBA, wRC+, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and K rate, as well as next to last ISO. Both bullpens stink and that leaves the two starting pitchers. I could go on for a full page on how bad Chris Flexen is, but why bother. Just look at the two statistical profiles. Aaron Civale is not good, but he is clearly better than Flexen The oddsmaker made the Rays a huge favorite again tonight and while it’s probably justified in that the White Sox are the worst team in the league, it’s also scary as hell to make yet another bet on a very mediocre Rays team as such a huge favorite. I am fading the White Sox because they are just so bad and so is Chris Flexen, but I don’t trust the Rays or Aaron Civale and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if this one comes back to bite me in the ass.
Pick – TB 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
More later. BOL all.