For what it’s worth, yesterday did not start out well, but got better quickly once we hit the evening games. Despite the Yanks, I finished the day +4.22 units. That leaves me +35.55 units for the season.
The Yanks got me off to that bad start by losing to the A’s 1-0. I can’t blame Carlos Rodon, he was great, tossing 7 scoreless innings and giving up just 1 hit and a couple of walks. He deserved a better fate, but got no run support. I get the Yanks not hitting JP Sears. He’s pitched well at times, but getting shut down by the A’s pen? Who are we kidding here? The rest of the evening was mostly very good, with an abundance of superb pitching performances throughout the evening. The Phils Ranger Suarez continued to dominate tossing 7 shutout inning and giving up just 2 hits and a walk in the Phils 7-0 win at the Reds. The Tigers Tarik Skubal was up next, tossing 6 shutout innings and giving up 3 hits, while striking out 9. Not to be outdone, surprise starter Bryce Elder tossed 6.2 innings of shutout ballbut did give up 8 hits in the Braves 3-0 win v the Marlins. Finally we had the Padres Dylan Cease who gave up 1 run on 1 hit, while striking out 8 in the Padres 3-1 win over the Rockies at Coors. That 1 run cost me a 1st 5 win, but I at least got a push on that one.
Today is a new day, cool and sunny here. We have a full slate and there are several games that I like, so let’s get to it. Here’s my card. I’m sticking mostly with parlays again.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
|
Units
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
129
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
BALT `st 5 ML
|
164
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
168
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
ATL ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
MINN ML
|
119
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
BALT `st 5 ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
BALT ML
|
162
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
129
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
BALT `st 5 ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
175
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
105
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
MINN ML
|
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
BALT `st 5 ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
BALT ML
|
140
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
BALT `st 5 ML
|
140
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
BALT `st 5 ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
BALT ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
BOS 1st 5 ML
|
|
-110
|
2
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
|
-107
|
2
|
I should again point out that I am now using this season’s stats. I update them twice a week on Monday and Thursday/Friday. However, with only a little more than three weeks behind us, it is still a very small sample size and hence subject to more variance than will be the case later in the season.
Here is my breakdown of the afternoon game. I’ll post the evening games later.
BOS @ CLEV
The 13-10 Red Sox had yesterday off after sweeping the Pirates in a three game series in Pittsburg over the weekend. They now move on to Cleveland to face the 16 66 Guardians who are off their own three-game sweep of the A’s.
Starting Pitchers
6:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BOS
|
Houck - R
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
0.90
|
2.60
|
2.87
|
2.04
|
2.58
|
2.60
|
0.242
|
0.272
|
42.5%
|
26.7%
|
1.9%
|
CLEV
|
Lively - R
|
(1/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – BOS
Tanner Houck has started 4 games for the Red Sox with 3 of them grading as above average and just 1 grading as below. He has given up 7 runs on 22 hits and 2 walks over 26,2 innings with 28 Ks. Houck hasn't allowed a run in three of his four starts this season and has punched out 7 or more in 3 of his 4 starts. He has a sub 1.00 WHIP and a sub 3.00 ERA with ERA metrics that are all sub 3.00 as well. HoucK also sports an impressive 28/2 K/BB ratio over 26.2 innings. He faced Lively and these Guardians last Wednesday at Fenway, tossing a complete game shutout and giving up 3 hits and 0 walks in the Red Sox 2-0 win. Houck was absurdly efficient in his first career complete game, needing just 94 pitches (69 strikes) to finish off the Guardians.
Ben Lively has only started one game for the Guardians ths season and that was the 2-0 loss to these Red Sox last Wednesday when he was outdueled by Houck. He still pitched well, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk over 5 innings with 7 Ks. Lively also started 12 games for the Reds last season with 7 grading as above average and 5 grading as below, but posted an unimpressive 1.39 WHIP and lousy 5.48 ERA over 65.2 innings.
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BOS
|
4,48
|
13
|
0.313
|
17
|
98
|
18
|
0.166
|
4
|
9.4%
|
11
|
-1.0
|
22
|
41.4%
|
4
|
9.3%
|
4
|
26.0%
|
25
|
CLEV
|
5.64
|
3
|
0.325
|
9
|
115
|
6
|
0.154
|
9
|
6.9%
|
29
|
0.3
|
12
|
40.1%
|
7
|
8.1%
|
8
|
19.8%
|
7
|
Edge – CLEV close
Conclusion: I don’t know who wins this game. It looks close to me, but of the two starting pitchers, Tanner Houck has blossomed and seems to be on a roll this season. While Ben Lively’s one start wasn’t bad either, it was only one start and what we was last season with the Reds didn’t impress anyone.
Pick – BOS 1st 5 ML in a side bet
LAD @ WASH
The 13-11 Dodgers are coming of a 10-game homestand in which they dropped two of three to the Mets, after dropping two of three to these Nats ans splitting four games with the Padres. They now hit the road and head to Whasington DC to open a series a the pesky Nats. The 10-11 Nats took two of three from the reeling Astros in DC over the weekend.
Starting Pitchers
6:45
|
SP
|
GS +
|
(8/32)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAD
|
Paxton - L
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.50
|
2.81
|
5.12
|
6.21
|
6.03
|
6.82
|
0.318
|
0.355
|
52.3%
|
14.7%
|
20.6%
|
WASH
|
Corbin - L
|
(0/4)
|
(4/4)
|
1.97
|
8.06
|
6.62
|
4.68
|
4.16
|
4.52
|
0.427
|
0.395
|
48.8%
|
14.3%
|
7.6%
|
Edge – LAD, by default only. I feel incredibly stupid for even trying to find an edge here.
James Paxton was beyond awful in his last start v the Padres. He walked 8 of the 23 batters that he faced and gave up 3 hits and a HR. Miraculously, he managed to last 5 innings and only give up 3 runs. However, in two starts before that fiasco, v the Giants and at the Twins, Paxton gave up just 2 runs on 7 hits and 6 walks over 11 innings with 9 Ks. His ERA, amazingly is under 3.00 but his ERA metrics are all even worse than Corbin’s. His K rate is as bad as Corbin’s and his walk rate in much worse. Paxton;s issue is walks, but it’s only surfaced this season. His career walks rate is a respectable 7.7%, so I’m expecting regression to the norm.
Patrick Corbin’s been awful this season. Hell, he’s been awful for the last four seasons. This season he’s given20 runs on 26 hits and 8 walks over 22.1 innings with 15 Ks. His WHIP is close to 2.00 and his ERA is over 8.00!. Corbin’s ERA metrics say hes been quite that bad, but they sure as hell aren’t good. Hiso wOBA is over .400 and his xwOBA isn’t far behind. This guy is total garbage!
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
5
|
64.8%
|
22
|
0.50
|
17
|
1.21
|
6
|
4.35
|
20
|
23.7%
|
9
|
9.0%
|
15
|
WASH
|
3
|
4
|
7
|
3
|
77.1%
|
7
|
0.48
|
9
|
1.39
|
26
|
3.25
|
9
|
22.6%
|
15
|
8.7%
|
14
|
Edge – None, both pens stink
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
5.17
|
7
|
0.341
|
4
|
116
|
5
|
0.162
|
7
|
10.8%
|
2
|
-1.0
|
21
|
39.0%
|
14
|
7.3%
|
14
|
24.1%
|
21
|
WASH
|
3.81
|
24
|
0.312
|
18
|
95
|
20
|
0.145
|
11
|
8.7%
|
18
|
2.9
|
3
|
32.3%
|
30
|
5.6%
|
30
|
22.4%
|
15
|
Other than walking less and striking out more, the Dodgers have every other edge and it’s not all that close.
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers are the much better hitting team and that’s not close. Both billpens are crap. Other that hage walk problem, James Paxton hasn’t been that bad, but Patrick Corbin has been that bad and he;s been so for a long time. I’mholding my nose, but I’ll take the Dodgers
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
DET @ TB
The 13-10 Tigers won the first game of this series with the 12-12 Rays 7-0 lat night behind a stellar outing from Tarik Skubal in Tampa.
Starting Pitchers
6:50
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
DET
|
Maeda - R
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.58
|
7.64
|
6.34
|
8.36
|
5.21
|
5.02
|
0.441
|
0.388
|
36.7%
|
15.0%
|
8.8%
|
TB
|
Pepiot - R
|
(22/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.01
|
4.37
|
3.00
|
3.60
|
3.45
|
3.26
|
0.272
|
0.278
|
43.4%
|
30.7%
|
9.1%
|
Edge – TB
Kenta Maeda has started 4 games for the Tigers with just 1 grading as above average and the other 3 grading as below. He has given up 15 runs (17 earned) on 21 hits (an AL worst 7 HRs) and 7 walks over 17.2 innings with 12 Ks. Maeda’s WHIP and ERA both sit at career-highs and his ERA metrics ae sall in the same vicinity. Maeda wOBA is over .400 and his xwOBA isn’t far behind. Hos K rate is by far the lowest of his career and more than 12% lower than last season, while his walk rate is the highest he’s ever had. At 36, Maeda looks done.
Ryan Pepiot, the hight prized prospect acquired from the Dodgers as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade, has started 4 ga,es for the Rays with 2 grading as above average and 2 grading as below. He has given up 11 runs on 15 hits (3 HRs) and 8 walks over 22.2 innings with an impressive 27 Ks. Pepiot’s WHIP is excellent, barely over 1, but his ERA is only mediocre. However, Pepiot’s ERA metrics are mostly about a full run lower than his inflated ERA. That tells me that he has pitched better than that EA would suggest and he has an elite K rate..
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
DET
|
9
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
82.9%
|
2
|
0.42
|
1
|
1.11
|
2
|
1.65
|
1
|
22.3%
|
17
|
8.2%
|
10
|
TB
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
4
|
66.4%
|
20
|
0.53
|
27
|
1.34
|
23
|
5.34
|
27
|
23.0%
|
12
|
9.2%
|
17
|
Edge – DET
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
4.00
|
20
|
0.288
|
25
|
87
|
24
|
0.118
|
25
|
9.2%
|
12
|
1.5
|
8
|
39.7%
|
9
|
8.0%
|
10
|
24.8%
|
24
|
|
TB
|
3.92
|
22
|
0.300
|
24
|
100
|
16
|
0.114
|
26
|
7.0%
|
27
|
2.8
|
5
|
34.9%
|
27
|
6.0%
|
27
|
23.8%
|
20
|
|
Edge – TB, but smaller than I would have expected.
Conclusion: The Rays do have the better offense, but it’s close. The Tigers, however, have the better bullpen. That leaves the two starting pitchers and tonight Ryan Pepiot should have a clear edge over the rapidly fading Kenta Maeda. For five innings, I’ll take my chances with Pepiot.
Pick – TB 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
MIA @ ATL
The 6-18 Marlins got beat 3-0 last night by the 15-6 Braves, wgo got yet another stellar outing from Reynaldo Lopez.
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIA
|
Rogers - L
|
(1/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.55
|
3.92
|
3.37
|
2.43
|
3.55
|
3.86
|
0.334
|
0.294
|
41.0%
|
21.5%
|
8.6%
|
ATL
|
Fried - L
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.96
|
7.71
|
4.89
|
5.17
|
4.41
|
4.56
|
0.387
|
0.348
|
29.5%
|
15.0%
|
11.3%
|
Edge – MIA, but only by default
Trevor Roger has started 4 games for the Marlins, but only 1 of them graded as above average, while the other 3 graded as below. He has given up 19 run (9 earned) on 24 hits and 8 walks over 20.2 innings with 2 Ks. Rogers WHIP is high and his ERA is mediocre, but his ERA metrics are all a half to a full run lower than that bloated ERA and the same pattern hold true for his xwOBA which h is 40 points lower than his actual wOBA. A .369 BABIP that’s more than 40 points higher than his career average might help explain that discrepancy. Rogers has been unlucky on batter balls in play.
Max Fried has also started 4 games with just 1 grading as above average and 3 grading as below. He has given up (`5 runs (14 earned) on 23 hits and 9 walks over 16.1 innings with 12 Ks. Fried has struggled this season after retuning from a variety of injuries at the end of last season. Fried;s WHIP and ERA are both outrageously high and should come down, at least to at least where his ERA metrics say his ERA should be, in the mid 4s, but that;s still not impressive. Fried was a lot better than that before all the injuries and he may get back to that near elite level, but until I see it, I can’t be on it.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MIA
|
1
|
8
|
4
|
2
|
66.2%
|
21
|
0.60
|
26
|
1.50
|
28
|
5.30
|
26
|
22.8%
|
14
|
11.1%
|
28
|
ATL
|
7
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
76.1%
|
8
|
0.51
|
9
|
1.28
|
15
|
3.48
|
10
|
22.0%
|
20
|
8.3%
|
11
|
Edge – ATL big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MIA
|
3.70
|
25
|
0.276
|
29
|
71
|
29
|
0.110
|
29
|
7.0%
|
27
|
-0.5
|
17
|
38.7%
|
15
|
7.2%
|
15
|
21.8%
|
12
|
ATL
|
6.25
|
1
|
0.366
|
1
|
128
|
1
|
0.192
|
2
|
8.8%
|
17
|
0.6
|
9
|
44.5%
|
2
|
9.8%
|
2
|
22.0%
|
13
|
Edge – ATL huge
Conclusion: The Braves are the best hitting team in baseball, while the Marlins are one of the worst. The Braves also have the vastly superior bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, I’m not impressed with what I’ve seen from eother Rogers or Fried. The Braves should still have enough edges to win this game. We have the best team in the NL East facing the worst. I’m all in on the Braves to win the game tonight.
Pick – ATL 1ML in a series of parlays
CHI WS @ MINN
The 3-19 White Sox got beat again last night 7-0 by the 8-13 Twins behind Crhis Paddack, who tossed 7 shutout innings and fanned 10.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHI WS
|
Fedde - R
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.33
|
3.10
|
5.29
|
6.01
|
4.29
|
4.28
|
0.338
|
0.360
|
40.0%
|
21.3%
|
10.1%
|
MINN
|
Lopez - R
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
0.97
|
3.97
|
3.04
|
3.43
|
3.21
|
3.18
|
0.272
|
0.280
|
43.5%
|
25.8%
|
4.5%
|
Edge – MINN
Erick Fedde has started 4 games for the White Sox with 2 gradig as above average and 2 grading as below. He has given up 8 runs (7 earned)on 18 hits (5 HRs) and 9 walks over 20.1 innings with 19 Ks. Fedde’s WHIP is only mediocre, but his ERA is solid. The problem is that all his ERA metrics are at least a full run higher than his impressive ERA. That’s partly die to his very low .236 BABIP and very hgh 95.2% strand rate and neither is sustainable, so I would expect that ERA to rise to his metrics say it belongs.
Pablo Lopez has started 4 ga,es with 2 grading as above average and 2 grading as below. He has given up a total of 11 runs (10 earned) on18 hits (3 HRs)and 4 walks over 22.2 innings with 23 Ks. Lopez is carrying a sub 1.00 WHIP, but a surtprisingly high, almost 4.00 ERA. However, his ERA metrics are all at least a half a run lower than his bloated ERA. Lopez has been elite since he joined the Twins and barring inkury, I don’t expect that to change.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CHI WS
|
1
|
6
|
3
|
3
|
67.9%
|
18
|
0.64
|
14
|
1.45
|
27
|
3.81
|
15
|
20.1%
|
26
|
11.2%
|
29
|
MINN
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
83.5%
|
1
|
0.52
|
3
|
1.27
|
14
|
2.84
|
4
|
26.7%
|
1
|
7.3%
|
6
|
Edge – MINN big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CHI WS
|
2.05
|
30
|
0.255
|
30
|
63
|
30
|
0.101
|
30
|
8.3%
|
24
|
-2.4
|
26
|
40.4%
|
6
|
8.5%
|
6
|
24.3%
|
22
|
MINN
|
3.52
|
26
|
0.277
|
28
|
80
|
27
|
0.134
|
20
|
8.6%
|
19
|
0.5
|
10
|
38.5%
|
17
|
7.0%
|
17
|
26.5%
|
27
|
Edge – MINN, mostly be default
Conclusion: The Twins are not a good hitting team, but compared to the White Sox, who are the wort hitting team in baseball, they sure look like one. The Twins bullpen has actually been pretty good and the White sox pen, like everything else about this team, stinks. Erick Fedde doesn’t really stink, but he’s facing an elite pitcher in Pablo Lopez. I’m just fading the worst team in baseball.
Pick - MINN 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
SEA @ TEX
The 11-11 Mariners had the day off after taking two of three from the Rockies at Coors. The 12-11 Rangers also had the day off after dropping two of three to the Braves in Atlanta over the weekend.
Starting Pitchers
8:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SEA
|
Gilbert - R
|
(3/4(
|
(1/4)
|
0.78
|
2.33
|
3.70
|
3.43
|
2.97
|
2.85
|
0.237
|
0.307
|
41.8%
|
29.0%
|
4.0%
|
TEX
|
Dunning - R
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.22
|
3.91
|
6.87
|
6.21
|
4.80
|
4.63
|
0.330
|
0.401
|
51.7%
|
22.9%
|
13.5%
|
Edge – SEA
Logan Gilbert has started 4 games for the Mariners with 3 grading s above average and just 1 gradsing as below. He has given up 7 run on 17 hit (4 rs) and 4 walks over 27 innings with 29 Ks. Gilbert sport a sub 1.00 WHP and an ERA n the low 2s. While his ERA metrics ae all between a half to a full run higher than his superb ERA, they are still very good. However, it hould be noted than Gilbert’s low .206 BABIP is 75 points lower than his career rate and his 90.9% strand rate is about 16% higher than his career rate. I would expect to see some regression to the norm in both areas.
Dane Dunning has also started 4 games for the Rangers with just 1 grading as above average and the other 3 grading as below. He has given up 11 runs (10 earned) on 15 hits (5 HRs) and 13 walks over 23 innings with 22 Ks. Dunning’s WHIP and ERA are both solid, but his ERA metrics are all 1 to 2 runs higher than his ERA. I’m sure than Dunnings unbelievably low .189 BABIP, which is more than 100 points lower than his career average, has a lot to do with that as does his pedestrian K rate and high walk rate. Dunning’s xwOBA is send the same message in that it’s more than 70 points higher than his actual wOBA. Dunning’s been damned lucky.
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SEA
|
3.82
|
23
|
0.303
|
21
|
102
|
15
|
0.123
|
24
|
10.0%
|
5
|
-1.2
|
24
|
35.7%
|
24
|
6.4%
|
23
|
26.9%
|
29
|
TEX
|
4.96
|
9
|
0.323
|
10
|
109
|
9
|
0.139
|
17
|
8.5%
|
20
|
-0.8
|
19
|
34.5%
|
28
|
6.0%
|
27
|
19.3%
|
3
|
Edge – TEX
Conclusion: The Mariners have struggled to score this season and that has surprised me. The Rangers are the much better hitting team here and that concerns me. I keep remembering that superb effort by George Kirby on Sunday when the Mariners couldn’t get him even one lousy run. That given, Logn Gilbert v Dane Dunning should be a mismatch. Gilbert’s been the much better pitcher, so Ill ride Gilbert for five innings and hope the Mariners give him a few runs.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML in a side bet
BALT @ LAA
The 16-7 Orioles beat the 9-14v Angels 4-2 last night.
Starting Pitchers
9:38
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BALT
|
Rodriguez - R
|
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
1.17
|
2.63
|
3.41
|
3.55
|
3.46
|
3.39
|
0.304
|
0.297
|
43.8%
|
27.8%
|
8.2%
|
LAA
|
Canning - R
|
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.58
|
8.05
|
5.31
|
6.02
|
4.89
|
4.40
|
0.417
|
0.362
|
38.5%
|
18.2%
|
5.7%
|
BALT
Grayson Rodriguez has started 4 games for the O’s with 3 grading as above average and just 1 grading as below. He has given up just 7 runs on 2 hits (3 HRs) and 8 walks over 24 innings with 27 Ks. His WHIP is solid and his ERA is in the mid 2s. Canning’s ERA metrics are all between a half to a full run higher than his stellar ERA, but still very solid with an excellent K rate.
Griffin Canning has also started 4 games fir the Angels =m but in his case 3 graded as below average and just 1 graded as above. He has given up 18 runs (17 earned) on on 25 hits (5 HRs) and 5 walks over 19 innings with 16 Ks. Cannings statistical profile looks pretty ugly, with with a high WHIP and an ERA of over 8. Hus ERA metrics aren’t quite as bad, but they are still not good. His wOBA is over .400 and his K rate is pedestrian.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BALT
|
7
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
63.4%
|
26
|
0.49
|
17
|
1.17
|
4
|
4.23
|
19
|
23.2%
|
11
|
6.6%
|
2
|
LAA
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
64.6%
|
23
|
0.56
|
22
|
1.26
|
10
|
4.81
|
22
|
23.0%
|
12
|
9.9%
|
21
|
Edge – BALT
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BALT
|
5.73
|
2
|
0.343
|
3
|
128
|
1
|
0.200
|
1
|
6.5%
|
30
|
3.2
|
1
|
43.4%
|
3
|
9.6%
|
3
|
20.8%
|
10
|
LAA
|
4.09
|
19
|
0.303
|
21
|
95
|
20
|
0.130
|
22
|
8.1%
|
25
|
-0.9
|
20
|
39.1%
|
13
|
7.5%
|
13
|
23.5%
|
19
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: The Orioles have all the edges here. They are the much better hitting team. They have the much better bullpen and the clearly better starting pitchers. My only concern is that this line appears real light. The O’s should bea similar sized favorite as the Brave or Twins are tonight. Hell, they’re not even as big a favorite as the Dodgers and their crappy pen. I don’t get it. What am I missing here? In this case, I’ll ignore my misgivings and just bet on the much better team.
Pick – BALT 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parLays