For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be another very good day. We've been on a bit of a roll lately. I hope we don't jinx ourselves by saying so. We placed a total of five wagers last night, and cashed four of them, including all three of our 2 unit wagers, to finish a +5.47 units for the day, and bring our season total up to +41.96 units.
We bet 2 units on the WASH 1st 5 RL - Max Scherzer was superb (8.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 13 Ks) WASH led 3-0 after 5. Luis Perdomo was also good, thoewing a QS, but Scherzer was flat out better.
We bet 2 units on the NYM 1st 5 RL - Jacob deGrom also superb (8.1 IP 6 H 1 R 10 Ks). The Mets lit up Chad Kuhl for 5 runs in 4.1 innings and led 5-1 after 5.
We bet 2 units on the BOS 1st 5 RL, and another unit on the BOS full game RL - Eduardo Rodriguez was very good (6 IP, 5 H, 0 R) and nursed a1-0 lead through 5. BOS got 2 more in the 6thn and the BOS pen [put the finishing touches on a 3-0 shutout. Gallardo was better than expected, but not good enough.
Finally, we bet 1 unit on the TEX 1st 5 ML - This was our value play. It looked promising early, when the Rangers goa a quick 2nd inning run off Bolsinger, but TOR came back with 4 off Griffin in the bottom of the 2nd and handed us our only loss of the evening. It was 6-3 TOR after 5. In retrospect, we probably should have passed on this one. Griffin's just not that good. There may not have been any value on TOR, but even value couldn't make TEX a winner.
We also regret not betting on the Dodgers. It was late, we'd had a few , and we were just too tired to write it up. However, we really like what we've seen of Wood this season, especially the Ks (5 IP last night, 2 H, 0 R and 0 runs, 8 Ks), and Arrieta's been struggling. I guess we still see Arrieta as elite, even though he really hasn't been, since around last season's AS break. We also don't completely trust Wood yet, after a really disappointing 2016. Oh well, it was still a very good evening.
On to today's games
TB @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi has started eight games for the Rays, but had to leave his April 15 start after just 1 inning with hamstring tightness. He's produced a 3-2 record with four quality starts, including three of his last four. He's allowed 2 or fewer runs in six of his seven legitimate starts. Even in his two subpar efforts, he still went 6 innings and allowed just 4 runs in each. Odorizzi has allowed less hit (31) than innings pitched (43), and has only walked 10, which explains the sub 1.00 WHIP. His 37/10 K/BB ratio i good, and opponents are only hitting less than .200 (.199) against him.
Odorizzi continues to develop and mature as a pitcher. He had issues putting batters away earlier in his career but has added Alex Cobb's split-change to his repertoire along with a cutter. Odorizzi works vertically in the strike zone while painting corners, and like many Rays pitchers in 2016, he was victimized by the long ball because he works up in the zone so frequently with his fastball.
Adalberto Mejia
Mejia has started four games for the Twins. He's 1-1, with one quality start, his last one. . He's allowed 16 hits and 10 runs (9 earned) in16.1 innings with 13 Ks and 10 BBs. His decent K rate is pretty much negated by his abominable walk rate. Between the 16 hits and 10 walks, that's 26 base runners in just over 16 innings, which explains the 1.59 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .258 against him.
Here is what a FanGraphs' Jeff Zimmerman's scouting report has to say about Mejia:
"The big-boned 23-year-old lefty throws from a 3/4 release point. It’s a fairly straightforward delivery for a left-handed pitcher.
- Fastball (4-seam): 91-95 mph. Straight with some release-side run and rising action (only 27% GB%). It would be acceptable if he had plus breaking pitches.
- Fastball (2-seam): 90-94 mph with glove side run and sink. This pitch has potential as a groundball pitch (56%) but has generated no swings-and-missed (2% SwStr%) so far this season.
- Slider: 80-86 mph and breaks to glove side and down. He hung and few but Kansas City didn’t make him pay. A couple were plus, most weren’t.
- Change: 82-85 mph and straight. It’s a BP pitch. Publications had the pitch as plus but no way. He’s not fooling anyone with it.
- Curve: 78-80 mph. He threw it twice and it’s a nice pitch. I’m not sure why he doesn’t use it more.
- Like Lamet, Mejia throws too many pitches not even near the strike zone. The wildness has led to his high walk rate (5.5 BB/9).
I can’t find a single reason to recommend Mejia at this point. Besides generating a few BABIP reducing flyballs, his fastball is average at best. His change is horrible. His slider could be good if thrown consistently. His curve could be good if thrown at all. At best, his stuff is average. At worse, useless. Unless he makes some majors changes, I don’t see him as any more than a 5th starter/long setup man."
Odorizzi is an established quality starting pitcher, and that's something that Mejia may never be.
Bullpens
These two bullpens are very close.
Edge - NONE
Offense
These are two very good offenses. The numbers give TB a slight edge.
Egge - TB slight
Defenses
Edge - MINN
Home / Road Records
TB is 10-12 on the road v 16-13 at home
MINN is 11-14 at home v 14-5 on the road
Edge - NONE
Conclusion: The bullpen are very evenly matched, the offenses are both potent and again very close. Maybe TB gets a slight edge. MINN's the better defensive team. The biggst difference between these two teams in this game is the starting pitching. Odorizzi a quality starting pitcher with a good track record, and ge pitching very well right now. Mejia has one good start, and may never be a quality staring pitcher. I'll take my chances with Odorizzi.
Pick - TB 1st 5 ML (-108 for 1 unit) and TB full game ML -106 for 1 unit)
DET @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
*Past 3 calendar years as a starter
Buck Farmer
Farmer is still starting in the minor leagues, but he has only started in eight of his 32 major league appearances over the past three seasons. His record in those eight starts is 0-5. He possess a major league-average slider to go with his plus change. In fact, Farmer's change has top-25 drop in the major leagues (minimum 100 thrown). The problem is that Farmer's fastball is straight. Average movement on that pitch, paired with only slightly above-average velocity, has given him average whiffs(5.86 K/9) but also a line drive and home run problem (2.29 HR/9). That and a few hanging sliders have kept him out of the DET starting rotation, and in the bullpen or the minors. His number as a starter with DET are uniformly ugly.
Derek Holland
Holland has started nine games for the Whir Sox this season. He is 4-3 with seven quality starts. He has allowed 3 runs or less in seven of his nine starts. In his two subpar outings, Holland scatter 9 hits and gave up 7 runs, but only 2 earned runs in 4.2 innings at the NYY, and gave up 6 hits and 7 runs ( 3 earned) over 5 innings. That means that of the 14 runs that Holland allowed in those two outings, 9 were unearned!
On the season Holland has allowed less hits (44) than innings pitched (54.2), and opponents are hitting just .242 against him. The only real concern with Holland is that his metrics are over 2 runs higher than his stellar 2.47 ERA. The only explanation I can see is his high, 3.29 BB/9. Walking that many (20 so far this season) generally caches up to you, so we could see some regression for Holand.
Last season, Holland finished 7-9 with a 1.41 WHIP and a 4.95 ERA. His advanced metrics a 3.63 SIERA and a 3.15 xFIP were a little better
If Hollard was just mediocre, he'd still have a big edge in this matchup. Holland's actually been much better than mediocre, and Farmer sucks. He always has and he always will
Edge - CHI WS
Bullpens
The White Sox bullpen is pretty good. The Tigers pen is a disaster. Only PHIL might be worse, and that's debatable.
EDGE - CHI WS big
Offenses
DET's offense is well above average, while CHI's is well below average.
Edge - DET
Defense
Edge - DET
Home / Road Records
DET is 10-15 on the road v 12-10 at home
CHI is 9-8 at home v 12-17 on the road
Edge - CHI WS slight
Conclusion: I frankly don't understand this line. DET should never be favored with Farmer on the mound. To me, this is simple. CHI has the much better bullpen, but DET has the bats, so I suppose they could get hot and tee off on Holland. However, I think that it's just as likely that CHIC rips a really bad Farmer. Everybody else has. That leaves us with these two starting pitchers. Holland's pitched very effectively, a lot better than I expected. As for Farmer. I expect that he'll be bad. Healmost always is. I'll take my chances with the White Sox and fade Farmer and the DET pen.
Pick - CHI WS 1st 5 innings NL (+138 for 1 unit) and CHI WS full game ML (+131 for 1 unit)
SD @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
Clayton Richard
Richard has started ten games for the Padres. He has 1 3-5 record, with 4 quality starts. Richard has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his starts and at least 5 in four of them. He has allowed more hits (69) than innings pitched (62.2), with an acceptable 45/18 K/BB ratio. Opponents are hitting .284 against him.
Richard is mediocre. Hiscareer K/9 rate is a modest 5.59, and his career BB/9 rate is a high 3.03 The one thing Richard does well is that he produced a ton of ground balls (52.2%). Richard's solid GB rate is the only thing he has going for him, and it's probably not enough.
Stephen Strasburg
Strasburg is off to another fine start this season. He's started nine games, has a 5-1 record and has delivered seven quality starts. He missed another by just 1 out. In his on subpar start v BALT, Strasburg gave up 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks over 6 innings, while striking out 9. He has still been extremely reliable. This season, he's allowed less hits (50) than innings pitched (60.1) and fanned almost a batter per inning (59). Opponents are hitting just .221 against him, and he has a solid 59/17 K/BB ratio.
Strasburg missed time late last season with a flexor mass strain, but still posted a stellar 15-4 record with a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.60 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.18 SIERA and a 3.20 xFIP, were even better. That tells me Strasburg actually pitched even better than his 3.60 ERA says he did.
Richard is mediocre, while strasburg is elite.
Edge -WASH
Bullpens
Everyone knows that the WASH bullpen sucks, although last night Golver got a save. However, the Padres pen really isn't much better. Maybe a little better, but I wouldn't trust either one.
Edge - SD slight, maybe
Offenses
WASH is an offensive powerhouse, and SD has a woefully weak offense.
Edge - WASH big
Defense
Edge - WASH
Home / Road Records
SD is 9-18 on the road v 9-14 at home
WASH is 15-8 at home v 14-10 on the road
Edge - WASH
Conclusion: Both of these teams have bad bullpens, but WASH is loaded on offense, while SD has one of the worst offenses in the league. WASH also has the better dense and a good home record, while SD is a bad team., and even worse on the road. As for these two starting pitchers, Richard is very mediocre. Strasburg ois elite, and pitching very well this season. I'll take Strasburg and the Nats powerhouse offense, in a 1st 5 inning wager, thus avoiding the bullpen.
PICK - WASH 1st 5 RL (-165 for 2 units)
ARIZ @ MIL
Starting Pitchers
Zack Greinke
Coming of an uncharacteristically poor debut season with Arizona, Zack Greinke has rebounded with a 6-2 record, and nine solid starts in his ten outings this season. His streak of five consecutive quality starts came to an end two starts ago, after serving up a 2-run HR in the 7th inning, but he came right back with an 8.2 inning, 4 hit, 1 run, and 12 K gem . In eight of his starts Greinke has not allow more that 3 runs, and in five of them it was only 1 run. His one bad start was against the Dodgers, who got to him for 5 runs on 10 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings. Since leaving the Dodgers to join the Diamondbacks, Greinke has been obliterated in his 4 starts against his former team, serving up a combined 16 earned runs in 22.2 innings. Greinke has allowed just 53 hits, in 57 innings, and also sports an impressive 78/12 K/BB ratio. Opponents are only hitting .213 against him.
Greinke had a disastrous debut in Arizona last season, after signing a monster (6-year, $206.5 million) deal. He started poorly (5.50 ERA in April) and never really got back to being vintage Greinke He posted a 4.37 ERA and 7.6 K/9 rate. Even worse, it just seemed like every time he got on any kind of a roll, it was followed by a start from hell. Greinke had 4 such starts of 7+ earned runs after not having a single one in the previous 2 years. In those 4 starts Greinke allowed 31 earned runs in 17 innings! He didn’t allow more than 4 ER in any of his other 22 starts, posting a 2.92 ERA in those, but those 4 miserable starts pretty much sealed Greinke's fate.
Greinke’s biggest issue was the long ball. He had a HR issue early in his career (1.3 HR/9 from 2004-06), but just a 0.7 HR/9 rate from 2007-15. Last season, his HR problem resurfaced again, rising to 1.3. Making matters even worse, 13 of the 23 HRs that he allowed came in those 4 starts from hell. So far this season he's given up 9 HRs in his 58.1 innings. Last season, those 4 horrific starts, 2 before his injury, and 2 after it, destroyed Greinke's season.
Chase Anderson
Anderson has started nine games for the Brewers. He's 2-1 with three quality starts. However, after a strong start, with those three quality starts all coming in his first four outings, he has none in his last ffive. Over that period, Anderson has given up 33 hits and 20 runs in 24.2 innings, with 19 Ks and 13 BBs. One plus was that Anderson hadn't been giving up the long ball, allowing just 2 HRs in his first eight starts, but he just gave up 3 in his last outing.
Anderson started 30 games for Milwaukee last season, posting a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.39 ERA. with an equally mediocre 4.68 SIERA and 4.76 xFIP. A surge in HRs was a big problem. After giving up homers at near league-average rate (1.0/9 6) in 2015, he gave up 1.66 in n 2016. That was nearly 42% higher than the rest of the league.
Anderson is very mediocre, while Greike's back to his elite self..
Edge - ARIZ
Bullpens.
Edge - ARIZ
Offense
These are two very potent offenses, but ARIZ looks to be a little better
Edge - ARIZ
Defenses
Edge - ARIZ
Home / Road Records
ARIZ is 10-11 on the road v 21-8 at home
MIL is 12-15 at home v 13-8 on the road
Edge - None
Conclusion: The two teams are fairly close in most regards. However, ARIZ gets a small edge in the bullpen, and on offense and defenseThat leaves these two starting pitchers. Greinke has bounced back in a big way, and is pitching like the ace he was in LA. By contrast, Anderson's very mediocre. This line seems very cheap to me. Am I missing something? Maybe, but I'll take my chances with Greinke and the Dbacks.
PICK - ARIZ 1st 5 RL (+103 for 21 units ) and full game ML (-122 for 2 units)
BALT @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
Wade Miley
Miley has started nine games for the Os, and for the most part been very effective. He is 1-2 with four quality starts, and has allowed more than 3 runs just once. On the season, he has allowed lest hits (42) than innings pitched (48.2), and striking out more than a batter per inning (49). Opponents are only hitting .231 against him, but his 28 walks are his bug problem, and certainly explain his 1.44 WHIP, and his high metrics. I could be said that with that walk rate Miley has been very lucky to still have an ERA under 3.00.
Miley was bad in Seattle and got worse results from an ERA perspective in Baltimore, but did add some strikeouts after his trade midway through last season. Miley finished 9-13 with a 1.42 WHIP and a 5.37 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.21 SIERA and a 4,24 xFIP, weren't as bad as hih gawdy ERA, but still less thna stellar. He is a decent back end type, but ow making half his starts in Camden Yards and a bunch more in the gauntlet of AL East parks, he is a big risk. The up in strikeouts is because he utilized his slider much more in Baltimore than he had in Seattle. If he is able to continue throwing his slider that frequently ( currently 22.5%) he could be effective.
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel's last 3 seasons look like a roller coaster Hel had a breakout season in 2015, when he won the AL Cy Young award. He followed that with a really disappointing 2016 season, and now this season, he's been absolutely lights out again.
Keuchel has started none games and he's 7-0 with nine good outings, with seven quality starts! He's gone at least 7 full innings in seven of them, and has allowed more than 2 runs just once. He's allowed 1 or less in five of them. His 54/14 K/BB ratio is equally outstanding. In his one non quality start, Keuchel allowed 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5 over 8+ innings in a 7-6 extra-inning win over the Angels. He actually pitched much better than that line suggests. Through 8 innings, he had allowed just 2 runs and 4 hits. With Keuchel's pitch count at 95, and the Astros leading 6-2, manager A.J. Hinch foolishly sent him out for the bottom of the ninth. After he allowed 3 straight hits, Hinch brought in closer Ken Giles, but he allowed 3 more hits and the Angels forced extra innings. Despite the numbers, it was still a stellar start for Keuchel.
I didn't understand why Keuchel has had such drastic swings. Usually, when I see swings like that, I think injuries, but that wasn't the case with Keuchel. Flash back to 2015. Keuchel posted a 20-9 record with a 1.02 WHIP and a 2.48 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 2.84 SIERA and a 2.75 xFIP were equally outstanding, as was his 4.24 K/BB ratio. Only Francisco Liriano threw fewer balls in the zone than Keuchel's 37.6%. That's an important part of Keuchel's story. It's tough to live outside the zone and convince hitters to keep swinging, but that's exactly what Keuchel is did.
Last season, hitters adjusted, swinging and reaching less at Keuchel's out of zone pitches. As a result, Keuckel had to throw more pitches in the strike zone (41.6%), and that led to less K's (7.71 K/9 v 8,38), more BBs (2.57 v 1.98), 4.1% less soft contact (21.1%% v 25.2%), 88.5% more hard contact ((29.8% v 21.3%), and a 42 point increase in BAA ((.258 v .216). Not surprisingly, Keuchel's numbers declined ( a 1.29 WHIP, a 4.55 ERA, a 3.77 SIERA and 3.53 xFIP) . The discrepancy between Kwuchel's ERA and metrics tell me that he also was the victim of some bad luck on BABIP.
Will Keuchel continue to absolutely dominate hitters? On the plus side, he has excellent command, excellent movement on his sinker, and he's using his cutter more (11.9%). He's throwing less pitches in the zone again (37.2%) and getting more swing strikes on pitches outside the zone (30.3%). Both of those numbers are comparable to his 2015 numbers (37.6/5 out of zone pitches and 30.3% swing strikes out of zone). He's also generating 7% more soft contact (28.1% v 21.1%) and 8.2% less hard contact (21.6% v 29.8%). Again, both of those are comparable to his 2015 numbers (25.2% soft contact and 21.3% hard contact On the minus side his 7.67 K/9 is the lowest of his career, and his 89 mph fastball velocity is well below average even for a lefty. Will this continue? I don't know, but I'll keep riding him until it doesn't.
Miley's been mostly goos this season but Keuchel's been great.
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
BALT has a decent pen, but HTN's is exceptionally good
Edge - HTN
Offense
Edge - HTN
Defense
Edge - BALT
Home Road Record
BALT is 10-14 on the road v 15-7 at home
HTN is 18-10 at home v 15-6 on the road
Edge - HTN
Conclusion : GTN has most of the edges in this game. They have the better bullpen, the better offense and they very good at home, while BALT is a poor road team. They also have the better starting pitcher. Keuchel's having a great season. I'm a little concern about Keuckel just coming of the DL (neck), but it wasn''t his arm. Mileyw walks are IMO more problematic
PICK - HTN 1st 5 RL (-129 for 2 units) and full game RL (-115 for 2 units)