For what it's worth, last night turned out to be a very good one for us. We placed a total of ten wagers, and cashed eight of them 7o finish a +5.77 units for the day, and bring our season total up to +29.16 units.
We bet 1 unit on the CLEV ML and half a unit on the CLEV 1st 5 RL - Carlos Carrasco wasn't sharp and fell behind 4-1 after 2. Fortunately neither was Amir Garrett. Clev jumped on him for 5 in the 3rd. It was 7-3 after 5, and CLEV held on (barely) for an 8-7 W.
We bet a half a unit on the MINN ML - This was a straight value play. We weren't buying MINN as a +130 dog here. The game looked pretty even, and we actually thought MINN had a small edge. Both Santana And Bundy threw quality starts, but MINN got 1 in the 5th and another in the 7th, and that was 2 more than BALT got, as Santana threw a CG 2 hit shutout.
We bet half a unit on the TEX 1st 5 RL - This was our other straight value play, or so we thought. Both Cashner and Porcello had been pitching well, and we didn't think TEX should be a +185 dog. It was 2-2 entering the bottom of the 5th, but Cashner was struggling and BOS got 3 in the bottom of the inning to give us our first L.
We bet 1 unit on the MIL ML - This was probably our weakest wager. We were under no illusions about Nelson. When he's on he can generate a lot of GB out and be really tough, but when he's not, the GBs find hole and he gives up a lot of hits. That was the case in this one. Nelson was in trouble pretty much all night, giving up 2 in the 2nd and 2 more in the top of the 5th. Biagini was solid through 4 but MIL got 3 in the bottom of the 5th to chase him from the game. It was setting up just like we expected, we had the better offense against the weaker bullpen trailing by only 1, just like we predicted. However, the Jay s pen gave up nothing and preserved the 4-3 W, and handed us out 2nd loss.
We bet 2 units on the HTN 1st 5 RL and 1 more on the HTN RL - Lance McCullers allowed a season low 1hit in 5 innings to extend his AL leading streak of scoreless innings to 22. But his early exit came after he needed 96 pitches to get through the 5th in his 3rd straight start without allowing a run. HTN put up a run ib the 2nd, 3rd and 4th to make it 2-0 after 5. DET got 2 in the 7th to make it 3-2, but HTN got the 2 back in the bottom of this inning and rolled to a 6-2 W.
We bet 1 unit on the ARIZ ML - ARIZ jumped on overmatched Dylan Covey from 3 runs in the 1st and another in the 2nd. The White Sox got 2 back off Corbin in the 3rd, but ARIZ added another in the bottom of the inning to take a 4-2 kead, and held on for a 5-4 W.
Finally, we bet 2 units on Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers 1st 5 RL, and another unit of the 1st 1 Under 3.5 - LA gave Kershaw a 1-0 lead in the 1st with a solo HR. It stayed 1-0 until STL finally got the tying run in the 9th. Kershaw was great tossing 9 innings and allowing 3 hits and the 1 run. Lynn was also superb tossing 8 innings and allowing just 2 hits and 1 run.
On to today's games.
MINN @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
Jose Berrios
Last Season, Berrios couldn't have had a worse major league debut if he tried. MINN's best pitching prospects in years, Berrios seemed ready to take the league by storm after an impressive Triple-A stint in 2015 put the finishing touches on a great season. Another month or so at Triple-A would be all he needed before a call-up. As if on cue, he reeled off a 1.06 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts in his first 17 innings at Triple A and made his major league debut on April 27th. He was horrible. He allowed 5 runs in f4 innings and it turned out to be a harbinger of things to come. In his three stints with the Twins, he posted a 1.87 WHIP, and a 8.02 ERA, in 58.3 innings. The only encouraging sign was that he continued to excel in Triple-A every time he was sent back, posting a 0.99 WHIP, a 2.51 ERA, and 125 strikeouts in his 111.1 innings there.
Pitch tipping was a big problem for Berrios with the Twins and illustrates exactly how vast the discrepancy between the majors and Triple A, because he probably had the same tells in the minors, but they still couldn't touch him.
Berrios focused on improving those issues this offseason and so far it's paid off. G]he's made two starts since being called up, and the results have been spectacular. He beat COL 2-0, allowing just 2 hits and 0 runs in 7.2 innings, with 11 Ks and 1 BB. He followed that up with a 4-1 win at CLEV, in which he allowed 2 hits and just 1 run in 7.2 innings, with 4 Ks and 1 BB. That's 4 hits and 1 run in 15.1 innings with 15 Ks, 2 BBs and 0 HRs. Opponent are hitting a measly .082 against him. This kid has a boatload of talent and it's all seems to be coming together now.
Chris Tillman
Tillman has made three starts, after being out since February with a shoulder injury that plagued him throughout last season. He's 1-0 with one quality start. He's allowed 3 runs in each of his three starts, allowing 16 hits in his 15.1 innings, with 12 Ks and 7 BBs. Opponents are hitting .267 against him, but he has yet to allow a HR.
Last season Tillman finished 16-6 , with a 1.28 WHIP and a 3.777 ERA. His advanced metrics a 4.61 SIERA and a 4.54 xFIP were somewhat higher. That combined with a 3.45 BB/9 tells me that Tillman was somewhat lucky that more runs weren't cored on him.
We only has 5 starts worth of data between them, so it's a mighty small sample size, but while Tillman's been OK, Berrios has been great.
Edge - MINN
Bullpens
Overall, these two units look pretty even. BALT's been much worse without closer Britton who's been on the 15 day DL since May 4.
Edge - NONE
Offenses
The O's are about a league average offense, and the Twins are a little above league average.
Edge - MINN small
Defense
Edge - MINN
Home / Road Records
MINN is 13-5 on the road v 11-13 at home
BALT is 15-6 at home v 10-13 on the road
Edge - BALT slight
Conclusion: These two teams are reasonably close. The bullpens look pretty even, but BALT obviously misses closer Britton. MINN looks to have teh better offense and defense. BALT's been very good at home, but MINN's been very good on the road. BALT is really struggling right now, 3-7 in their last 10, while MINN's playing very well, 6-4 in their last 10 and leads CLEV in the AL Central by a game. As for the two starting pitchers, Tillman's been OK, bur Berrios has been spectacular. Yes, it's a small sample size, but I'll take my chances with the hotter team and hotter pitcher.
PICK - MINN 1st 5 ML (-115 for 1 unit) and full game ML (+100 for 1 unit)
MIA @ OAK
Starting Pitchers
Edinson Volquez
Volquez has started 8 games for the Marlins and has delivered just one quality start. He's allowed more hits (42) than innings pitched (40.2), and also walked 27. That certainly explains the career high 1.70 WHIP. His ERA and advanced metrics are closer to 5.00 than 4.00, and opponents are hitting .275 against hoim.
Last season, with KC, he posted a 10-11 record with a bloated 1.55 WHIP and a 5.37 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.72 SIERA and a 4.58 xFIP were a little better, but not much.
With the exception of a surprising 9.07 K/9, this season's numbers are even worse. His skills have been declining for some time now, and even a switch to the NL won't change that or help much.
Sonny Gray
In 2015, Gray made his first All-Star team and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. With sky high expectations, things fell apart for gray last season. Gray finished 5-11 with a 1.50 WHIP and a 5.69 ERA. He was hampered by arm issues, twice landing on the DL, and making just 22 starts (117 IP). Gray had bad luck in terms of his .319 BABIP last season , which was 41 points higher than his career .278 mark. Of course, that may have something to do with OAKs porous defense, that ranked last in a number of metrics. O course, OAK still has an awful defense. Additionally, last season, 18% of the fly balls Gray allowed went for HRs, compared to just a 11.3% rate for his career prior to last season. Gray didn't pitch particularly well, but there were enough negative factors in play last season, to believe that the 27 year old Gray could rebound , if he's healthy, which is iffy considering that he already missed the first month of the season with a lat strain.
Since returning from the DL on May 2, Gray has started 4 games, and delivered two quality starts in his last two outings. His last start v BOSwas his best. Gray gave up 2 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk in the first inning, but he then settled down and allowed just a soloHR the rest of the way. He induced 6 GB outs and fanned 8, avery good sign after he totaled just 9 in his first 3 starts. He's allowed less hits (21) than innings pitched (22.2), and has allowed more than 3 earned runs just once. His 17/7 K/BB ratio, while not exceptional is OK, and opponents are only hitting .241 against him. Hoverever his 19% HR/FB rate is still 7.3% higher than his career 11.3% mark.
Gray has loked progressively better as the season progresses. The HR/FB ratio is still concerning, everything else is looking good. The same can't be said for Volquez, who's downward spiral continues unabated.
Edge - OAK
Bullpens
Neither of these bullpens is very good or can be trusted. Despite being abused last night, the number give OAK a slight Edge.
Edge - OAK slight
Offenses
The MIA offense is well below average, while the OAK offense is somewhat better.
Edge - OAK
Defense
As mentioned the A's defense sucks
Edge - MIA big
Home / Road Records
MIA is 10-14 on the road v 6-14 at home
OAK is 14-10 at home v 6 -15 on the road
Conclusion: With the exception of their dreadful defense, OAK holds almost every other edge. Neither bullpen is very good, but OAK's is the better of the two. OAK also has the better offense and is decent at home, while MIA is a very poor road team. Finally, there's the two starting pitchers. Back is 2015 Gray was near elite, and he's still only 27. After an injury plagues 2016, he seems to be healthy, and pitching well. As for Volquez, he's been in decline for years now, and at 33, looks like fade material to me. I'll take my chances with Gray and OAK.
PICK - OAK 1st 5 RL (-102 for 1 unit)
KC @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
Jason Hammel
Hamme4 has really struggled for the Royal this season. He's started eight games and has produced just two quality starts. He's allowed a lot more hit (54) than innings pitched (40.2), and also walked another 17, which explains his career high 1.75 WHIP. His bloated 6.20 ERA has been partially the result of bad luck, as both his .352 BABIP is 52 points higher than his career .301 mark, and his 68.5% strand rate is about 2.5% lower than his career 71.1% mark. However, his advanced metrics are still both over 5.00, and opponents are hitting .320 against him. His 31.17 K/BB ratio is also pretty mediocre. Hammel has been working around the edge of the plate too much, leading him to fall behind in counts.
Last season, there were some troubling signs from Hammel. His fastball usage continued to decline, instead he relied more on his curveball. The result was a decreased K/9 from 9.07 to 7.79 last season, and 6.86 this season, his lowest total since 2013. His 2.86 BB/9 was up from 2.11, and currently sits at 3.76, also his highest rate since 2013. For the third straight season his WHIP rose from 1.12 to 1.21, and a whopping 1.75 now. His HR/9 continue to increase, from 1.21 to 1.35, and 1.33 now, as did his HR/FB ratio from 12.8 to 13.8 2016 (currently 9.8). Obviously, opposing hitters are generating a lot of contact in the air, but they're also making solid contact. His 32.5% hard-contact rate was the 9th highest among National League starters last season, and it's even higher, 33.1% this season. His 3.83 ERA increased for a third consecutive, and currently sit s at 6.20. With the way things have gone for Hammel over the last few seasons, he's no longer a frontline starter.
Luis Severino
Plagued by poor fastball command, Severino had a really bad season in 2016. Early on, he abandoned his change-up and turned into a strict fastball/slider pitcher. A two pitch mix with shaky fastball command is not great for a young starting pitcher. His ground ball rate dropped from 50% to 45%, many of which elevated to line drives. Increased line drive rate means increased BABIP, which climbed substantially from .265 to .324 between 2015 and 2016.Severino did have some late season success out of the bullpen.
Coming into this season, Severino was working on adding a new changeup into a repertoire, and more importantly he focused on increasing fastball command. So far, it's working. He has started eight games for the Yankees and has produced four quality starts. His changeup use has increased from 8.8% last season to 11% this season. His GB rate is up from 45.1% last season to 51.6% this season, and his BABIP is down from .324 last season to .280 this season. Severino has allowed less hits (40) than innings pitched (47), and he'striking out more than 1 batter per inning (54, 10.34 K/9). His 54/13 K/BB ratio is very good, and opponents are hitting just .226 against him.
Severino's getting better, while Hammel is going in the other direction.
Edge - NYY
Bullpens
The Yankees definitely miss closer Aroldis Chapman (15 Day DL - shoulder), but still have an excellent bullpen, while the Royals are wll berlow average.
Edge - NYY big
Offenses
The Yankees have an elite offense, while the Royals have one of the worst in baseball
Edge - NYY big
Defense
Edge - KC
Home / Road Records
KC is 7-15 on the road v 12-11 at home
NY is 14-7 at home v 12-10 on the road
Edge - NYY
Conclusion: With the exception of their defense, the Yankees hold every edge in this game and by a wide margin. The Yankees have the much better bullpen, the much more prolific offense, and they play very well at home, while KC is a bad road team. When we consider these two starting pitchers, the edege is equally clear. Severino appears to be getting better, while Hammel is regressing, and is as bad right now as he's even been.
Pick - NYY 1st 5 RL (-125 for 2 units) and NYY full game RL (+102 for 1 unit)
TEX @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
MARTIN PEREZ
Perez has made nine starts for the Rangers, and is 2-5 with five quality starts. After a slow start, Perez has reeled off three quality starts in his last 3 outings and four in his last 5 outings. He's still allowed more hits (59) than innings pitched (51), and combined with his 21 walks, it explains his 1.57 WHIP. His advanced metrics are almost a full run higher than his 3.71 ERA, probably because of his low 6.35 K/9 rate and high 3/71 BB/9 rate. His 36/21 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired and opponents are hitting .2965 against him, with righties hitting .317. . It sure looks like Perez has been very lucky that his ERA's not a lot worse.
In his rookie season of 2013, Martin Perez posted a 10-6 record with a 1.34 WHIP, and a 3.62 ERA in 124.1 innings. He threw 93 mph from the left side with a plus changeup, decent slider, and curveball. Perez's promising career was derailed by TJ surgery that basically cost him the next 2 seasons (130 innings in 2014-15 combined).
Last season his already below average K rate dropped to 12.1%, while his walk rate climbed to 8.99% en route to a 1.41 WHIP and 4.39 ERA. The big problem was that Perez has all kinds of problems against righties. The discrepancy is huge. His WHIP was 1.05 v L and 1.50 v R, His ERA, 2.08 v L, 4.96 v R, lefties tit .171 against him, while righties hit.285. His K rate was 3.7% lower v righties, his BB rate was 2.3% higher and his HR/9 was more than twice as high.
On the plus side, he did throw a career high 198.2 Innings, while compiling a 10-11 record, so he can eat up innings and give the Rangers .500 ball, but without major improvement, especially against righties, that may be his ceiling.
Chris Sale
Sale has pitched great this season. He has delivered eight quality starts in his nine outings. He's gone at least 6 innings in all nine starts and at least 7 in eight of them. He has allowed allowing only 39 hits in his 65.2 innings, and fanned 95 batter. His 95/13 K/BB ratio is elite, and opposing hitters are hitting just .1172 against him!
In his one subpar outing, Sale allowed 4 runs on 4 hits and 3walks while striking out 10 in a 17-6 win over the Twins. The game looks like it was a breeze for Boston, but it was nail-biter until the Red Sox put up 10 runs in the ninth inning. Sale was given a rare4-run lead, but he gave it all back in the bottom of the fifth, when the Twins scored f4 to knot the game at 4-4. It was easily Sale's worst inning of the season, and his shortest outing as well.
Last season, Sale posted a 17-10 record. His 1.04 WHIP was the 2nd lowest of his career, and his 3.34 ERA wasn't too shabby either. His advanced metrics, a 3.43 SIERA and a 3.58 xFIP were right in line with his career marks.
Edge BOS
Bullpens
BOS has one of the better bullpens in the league. TEX clearly does not. BOS torched the Ranger pen last night to the tune of 6 hits and 6 runs.
Edge - BOS big
Offenses
Both teams possess about a league average offense.
Edge - NONE
Defense
Edge - BOS close
Home / Road Record
TEX is 8-14 on the road v 16-8 at home
BOS is 13-9 at home v 10-12 on the road
Conclusion: BOS has the much better bullpen, the slightly better defense, a and they're decent at home, while TEX is lousy on the road. When it comes to these two starting pitchers, Sale is elite. Perez clearly is not, and is lucky his numbers aren't even Worse
PICK - BOS 1st 5 RL (-165 for 2 units ) and full game RL (-121 for 1 unit)
SF @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
Matt Moore
Moore has made nine starts for the Giants and is currently 2-4, with four quality starts. So far, he's been a disappointment, allowing more hits (59) than innings pitched (52). Moore has also walked 21 batters, which explains his 1.52 WHIP. His 45/21 K/BB ratio isn't particularly good and opponents are hitting .274 against him.
Moore's home-road splits have been drastic this season. He owns a 1.14 WHIP, a 2.57 ERA and a .217 BAA at AT&T Park compared to a 1.96 WHIP, a 8.63 ERA, and a .343 BAA in his five road starts. Even his K/BB ratio is 25/9 at home v 20/12 on the road.
When Moore was traded to the Giants, in the middle of last season, I though Moore had died and gone to heaven. He was leaving that beast of an AL East for the NL West, where he'd face pitchers, rather than DHs, and throw his home game in a pitcher friendly AT&T Park. It hasn't exactly worked out that way. Since joining the Giants, Moore is 8-9, with a 1.42 WHIP and a 4.72 ERA. However, at AT&T, he's 5-3 with a 1.26 WHIP and a 2.91 ERA. During that same stretch, on the road Moore is 4-10 with a 1.62 WHIP and a 5.97 ERA.
At 27, and with fewer than 600 innings under his belt, Moore is at a crossroads. Some believe that he is exactly what he is, and he's not going to get any better. Others still see promise left. In his best games, he shows command, a 91-92 MPH fastball, a wicked curve, and a straight change that's good enough. At his worst, he's out of the game early because he gives up too many walks, and too many HRs, usually at the worst possible time. I used to be a believer, but now, only ih he's at AT&T.
Kyle Hendricks
Like the Cubs, Hendricks struggled early on this season, particularly when compared to how well he pitched last season. He has now started eight games, and while the first three were very mediocre, he's delivered four quality starts in his last five outings, and allowed three or fewer in all five, and two or less in four of them. He's allowed only 38 hits in his 45.2 innings, with a decent 38/18 K/BB ratio. Opponents are only hitting.229 against him.
Last season, Hendricks had a career season posting a 16-9 record, with a 0.98 WHIP and a 1.08 ERA. Hendricks is most unlikely to repeat that again. Even last season, his metrics, a 3.70 SIERA and a 3.59 x FIP indicated that he was the beneficiary of some good breaks. However, over his career he has posted a 33-18 record, with a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.96 ERA. So while he may never equal last season, he's still pretty damn good.
Considering that this game is being played at hitter friendly Wrigley, Hendricks should have the better chance of having a good outing.
Edge - CHI C.
Bullpens
The numbers give the Cubs as small edge, but SF's pen have improved immensely from since a very poor start to the season.
Edge - CHI C close
Offenses
The Cubs aren't hitting anywhere near as well as they did last season, but they are still around league average, and that makes them considerably better than the Giants, who may be the worst hitting team in the league.
Edge - CHI C
Defense
Edge - SF close
Home / Road Records
SF is 9-17 on the road v 11 -10 at home
CHI is 12-11 at home v 11-10 on the road
Conclusion: Except, for a slight defensive edge by SF, The Cubs seem to hold most of th edges in this game. They have the slightly better bullpen and the much better offense. They aren't a particularly strong home team but SF's pretty bad on the road. When we get to these two starting pitchers, Hendricks seems to straighten out his early season problems, and Moore seeems to have problems outside of AT& T Park, and particularly in hitter friendly parks (Coors, Chase and Dodger Stadium this season), and Wrigley certainly qualifies, especially if the wind is blowing out.
Pick - CHI C 1st 5 RL (-119 for 1 unit)