http://www.wunderground.com/sports/MLB/
http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl
http://www.qwikcast.com/baseball.shtml
One thing that always baffled me was the lack of discussion on weather
in general when it came to betting on baseball. During football season,
you could not talk about a total and not have someone chime in with wind
or a pending rain storm coming. The fact is, especially in football, to
think the oddsmakers do not have the weather channel and factor all the
above into the number is nieve. I am not claiming the lines and totals
in baseball do not also account for weather conditions, BUT the various
variables that effect everything from pitching to how far a ball will
travel in no way are 100% accurate on the actuals numbers released for
betting purposes. Without going into a full blow physics paper, here are
some things to consider when handicapping MLB:
Air:
With
the average wind velocity in the United States around 10 miles per
hour, any variance can change a potential home run into an out. Using a
potential 400 foot homerun in the air for our example, with the average
10 miles WITH the batter it will add up to an extra 30 feet to the that
same 400 hit. On the flip side, if the wind (average of 10 miles) is
blowing AGAINST the batter it will take about 30 feet off the same exact
at-bat. So just using the average wind velocity and not anything
outside of the norm, the 400 foot hit will either go 430 OR 370 feet
depending on the conditions. That is a big difference, either a home run
or an out. Even a small change of + or - 5 miles per hour either way
jumps the change up to 45 feet using our example, or a 400 foot hit now
going 445 feet.
Looking at air coming side to side of the ball
(crosswinds) and not front or back, at 10 miles per hour it will blow a
fastball off its target by up to 3 inches. The crosswind effect has even
a greater effect on pitchers who tend to throw curveballs and
knuckleballs.
Density/Pressure:
With the air density
lower, the ball will travel further. With everything 100% equal except
the air density, the same hit in Denver will go 9% further versus it
being hit in New York. So if someone can hit the ball 400 feet in New
York, it would go around 436 feet when playing at the Rockies.
Professional
handicappers I have known in the past have used the complex breakdown
of weather to kill MLB totals. Besides beating totals, taking the time
to know the pitcher in conjunction with the weather is a very dangerous
tool if perfected when betting MLB. For example, Pitcher A with the same
exact fastball would reach the catchers mitt quicker in Denver versus
the same everything in Yankee stadium. In the event of being a pitcher
who may use a curveball, he is better off in New York because in Denver
it will break on average 3 inches less due to conditions. Experts in the
field have estimated the infielders range decreases a foot or so and
the outfielders about nine feet when you compare high elevation against a
sea level ballpark.
Many of the weather sites now offer "sports
weather" pages that show the stadium and conditions over the game.
Taking advantage of changes on air or density conditions after the lines
are released can be a valuable asset. Maybe conditions are optimal for
hitting early in the game, but not the full 9 innings, which can be
translated into an edge on betting the 1st 5 innings.
If you want
to really become a nerd on this stuff, check out Robert Adair's “The
Physics of Baseball. He is a Yale physicist who wrote an entire book on
baseball and the relationship of physics on the game.