Why I like the Indians on Tuesday at +105…Lets start by taking a look at the series in general where the Indians will be undervalued in every game against the “sexy” team in the Cubs, public perception is already laying over 60% of their action on the Cubs to win Game 1 while the odds on them to win the series continues to climb to the high -190s.
With that being said, there is major value on this Indians squad especially in Game 1. Starting with some hard numbers, the Indians are 9-1 in their last 10 games heading into this World Series while the Cubbies are 8-4. The Indians play with a fantastic home field advantage as they are 57-28 on the year at home while the Cubs are 49-36 on the road.
Taking a look at the aces for Game 1, the Indians will roll out their 20 game winner in Corey Kluber who has been dominant as of late. In Klubers last three starts, he has posted a 0.98 era through 18 innings while allowing just 13 hits on 7 BBs and striking out 20. An important note here is that Kluber allowed just 1 HR in these last three starts against the high powered offenses in the Blue Jays & the Red Sox. The last time Kluber faced this Cubs offense was back in 2015 where he went 7 innings allowing just 1 run on 4 hits, 0 BBs and struck out 11…the opposing pitcher was Jon Lester. This current Cubs lineup has seen Kluber minimally as they have posted just 42 ABs combining for a .095 average on 4 hits, 0 HRs, 0 BBs while striking out 16 times. How will the long layoff affect Kluber? in 2016 on 6+ days of rest, Klubers era dropped from 3.12 in all of his starts to 2.31.
The Cubs will be starting Jon Lester who also has been pitching great as of late as well. In his last three starts, Lester has posted a 0.86 era through 21 innings while allowing 14 hits, on just 2 BBs and striking out 12. I am putting less value on the offenses that Lester faced in the Dodgers and Giants. I am also fading Lester due to his home/road splits…on the road, Lester sees his era rise from a 1.74 era to a 3.17 era which becomes even more important in Cleveland against an Indians team who hits left handed starters fairly well. This current Indians lineup has a combined 124 ABs off of Lester with a .290 batting average and 4 HRs coming from three different players.
In terms of the bullpens, the Indians carry a 2.96 home era while the Cubs carry a 3.33 era in road games.
Will these young Cubs let the pressure of the World Series curse in a raucous Game 1 affect them?
Bet on the Indians at +105