For what it's worth, I'm still waiting for the MIA Dolphins to get a garbage time TD and get me at least a push. Guess it didn't happen, so we'll bet some baseball.
Yesterday was worthless. Ubaldo Jimenez actually threw a shutout, leaving us with an 0-1 record on our posted plays yesterday, making us 114-97- 11 for September.
We won't be posting very many plays over this weekend, with fewer and fewer meaningful games, so I'll update our MLB season now: 736-615-32 (54.5%) on our posted plays.
We also won't be providing as much detailed analysis, as much of what we would say is pretty obvious.
On to today's games.
TOR @ BOS
TOR and BALT are tied for the first wildcard spot, with DET 1.5 game back and SEA 2 back. BOS trails TEX by 2 for home field, and leads CLEV by 0.5 should they meet. This game is important to both teams.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - BOS
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Blue Jays
|
1.26
|
4.01
|
3.44
|
3.92
|
22
|
29
|
42
|
18
|
70.0%
|
74.10%
|
0.247
|
0.302
|
Red Sox
|
1.27
|
3.51
|
3.53
|
3.94
|
24
|
24
|
42
|
17
|
71.2%
|
75.50%
|
0.231
|
0.299
|
Edge - BOS small
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
15.1
|
5
|
|
103
|
5
|
|
0.328
|
4
|
|
22.8
|
7
|
Red Sox
|
116.2
|
1
|
|
114
|
1
|
|
0.349
|
1
|
|
33.8
|
2
|
Edge - BOS close
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
5.2
|
16
|
Red Sox
|
7.7
|
15
|
Edge - NONE
In this game, BOS is probably playing for home field in a playoff series with CLEV, while TOR is still fighting to clinch a wildcard spot. BOS has the better bullpen, but it's close. Bothe team have very potent offenses, although you'd hardly know it based on their last series. They both struggled, but statistically BOS has a small edge here. Defensively they're pretty equal so there's no real edge. They we get to the starting pitchers. Marco Estrada is 9-9, with 18 quality starts in his 28 outings, including his last 2. He's also had just 6 outings in which he's allowed more than 3 earned runs. Estrada has actually pitched a little better than his record suggests. However, Rick Porcello could very clinch the AL Cy Young Award with a good outing here. Porcello is having a career year. He's 22-4, with 25 quality starts in his 32 outings, including his last 12. He has allowed more than 3 earned runs just 6 times all season, and more than 4 just once. We'll ride the hot pitcher tonight.
PICK - BOS 1st 5 Innings (-151) and ML (-147)
BALT @ NYY
BALT took 2 from TOR in TOR to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Yankees are finally dead, but they did everything they could to stay alive, including winning 4 straight and sweeping BOS.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - NYY
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
1.29
|
3.42
|
3.87
|
4.12
|
31
|
14
|
53
|
14
|
79.1%
|
77.20%
|
0.242
|
0.293
|
Yankees
|
1.17
|
3.70
|
3.17
|
3.59
|
32
|
19
|
46
|
15
|
75.4%
|
75.80%
|
0.221
|
0.283
|
Edge - NYY close
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
10.7
|
6
|
|
101
|
8
|
|
0.326
|
8
|
|
18.5
|
15
|
Yankees
|
-50.7
|
21
|
|
92
|
22
|
|
0.310
|
24
|
|
13.1
|
24
|
Edge - BALT
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
-27.4
|
26
|
Yankees
|
-18.2
|
24
|
Edge - NYY close
This game is meaningless to the Yankees, who were finally eliminated in spite of sweeping BOS in their last series. BALT is tie with TOR and lead DET by 1.5 games, so they really need this game. The numbers say that NY has the better bullpen, but it's close. However, BALT is the much stronger offense. When we look at these two starting pitchers, despite having little to show for it, Michael Pineda' s been very effective in September, posting a 2.66 ERA and 34:10 K:BB in 23.2 innings across five starts. Pineda's last decision, a loss, came on Aug. 29, while he last recorded a victory all the way back on Aug. 5. He'll get one more shot at another win at home tonight. Yovani Gallardo bounced back with a strong effort in his last start, after getting blasted by the Rays. The outing was only Gallardo's 3rd quality start in his last 7 outings, and he's also dropped 5 of his last 6 decisions. I've been fading Gallardo all season long. I don't completely trust Pineda, but I certainly trust his more than Gallardo who's numbers say he not very good. We'll rely on the Yankees kids to stay hot.
PICK - NYY 1st 5 Inning (-150) and ML (-139)
NYM @ PHIL
In the NL wildcard race there are 3 teams vying for 2 spots. NY lead SF by 1 and STL by 2. PHIL i just palying out the string.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - NYM
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
1.27
|
3.62
|
3.49
|
3.90
|
29
|
19
|
53
|
15
|
77.9%
|
76.00%
|
0.235
|
0.299
|
Phillies
|
1.44
|
4.90
|
3.92
|
4.30
|
22
|
26
|
42
|
19
|
68.9%
|
71.90%
|
0.263
|
0.314
|
Edge - NYM
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
-34.1
|
19
|
|
96
|
16
|
|
0.313
|
19
|
|
18.6
|
14
|
Phillies
|
-127.4
|
30
|
|
82
|
30
|
|
0.296
|
30
|
|
11.3
|
27
|
Edge - NYM
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
28
|
9
|
Phillies
|
54.2
|
4
|
PHIL - close
The Mets need this game, PHIL doesn't. NY has the better bullpen and the better offense. When we get to the two starting pitchers, they're both very young. Robert Gsellman has made 6 starts for the Mets and has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of the, and 1 or fewer in 3. In the other 2, he's still only allowed 4. As for Alec Asher, he's made just 4 starts, and has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 of them. They've both been more good than bad , but we have small sample sizes for each. I'll go with the better team than nedds the game.
PICK - NYM 1st 5 Innings (-162) and ML (-158)
DET @ ATL
DET trails TOR and BALT by 1.5 in the AL wildcard race. ATL is just playing out the string
Starting Pitchers
Edge - ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Tigers
|
1.35
|
4.24
|
3.88
|
4.14
|
29
|
20
|
47
|
19
|
71.2%
|
71.50%
|
0.257
|
0.310
|
Braves
|
1.41
|
4.03
|
4.05
|
4.33
|
27
|
29
|
37
|
19
|
66.1%
|
71.20%
|
0.247
|
0.310
|
Edge - DET
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Tigers
|
7.4
|
7
|
|
104
|
4
|
|
0.328
|
4
|
|
18.4
|
16
|
Braves
|
-112
|
29
|
|
86
|
28
|
|
0.303
|
27
|
|
9
|
29
|
Edge - DET
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Tigers
|
-28.4
|
27
|
Braves
|
11.4
|
14
|
Edge - ATL
DET needs this game like blood. They trail TOR and BALT by 1.5. Thewy have the better bullpen and the much better offense, while aTL holds a small defensive edge. When we get to the two starting pitchers, it becomeas a real crapshoot. Jordan Zimmerman hasn't looked like himself all year, as he has battled neck and lat issues pretty much all season. However, he threw three innings of one-run ball in relief last weekend and will look to build on that momentum in his final regular-season appearance. He a vet and he's pitched big games before. As for Matt Wisler, he's very young and very talented, but has been very inconsistent. Wisler tossed his 3rd quality start in the last 5 outings. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in 4 of those starts as wel, and hasn't surrendered a homer since Aug. 31. As I said this is more of a crapshoot, but I'll wager on the better team that needs the game.
PICK - DET 1st 5 Innings (-122) and ML (-125)
TB @ TEX
TBMIL is just playing out the string, while TEX is trying to wrap up home field in the AL palyoffs. They lead BOS by 2, with 3 to play.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - TEX
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
1.37
|
4.13
|
3.97
|
4.24
|
19
|
32
|
39
|
17
|
69.6%
|
76.80%
|
0.252
|
0.295
|
Rangers
|
1.38
|
4.54
|
4.04
|
4.26
|
39
|
19
|
54
|
17
|
76.1%
|
72.20%
|
0.261
|
0.301
|
Edge - TEX slight
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-3
|
9
|
|
100
|
9
|
|
0.316
|
16
|
|
17.6
|
18
|
Rangers
|
-13.9
|
14
|
|
98
|
14
|
|
0.324
|
9
|
|
18
|
17
|
Edge - TB slight
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-22.8
|
25
|
Rangers
|
-10.1
|
21
|
Edge - TEX small
When we look at these two bullpens, offenses and defenses, it's a pretty even matchup. The big difference here is the two starting pitchers. After a very good start Matt Andriese had really struggled for most of the season. However, Andriese has actually pitched better recently than he had in a long time. He notched wins in his last 2 starts, completing 6 full innings for the first time since Aug. 24. Following a 2 start stretch where he gave up a whopping 14 earned runs over nine innings, Andriese has bounced back to allow just 5 earned runs over the 16.1 innings covering his last 3 starts. As for Yu Darvish, he has allowed fewer hits (78) than innings pitched (94.1) and has an excellent 120:30 K:BB ratio. He has tossed 10 quality starts in his last 12 outings. That's an amazing comeback from TJ surgery. TEX is the better team, they have something to play for and Darvish is clearly the better and hotter pitcher. Apparently the oddsmakers agree because the ML well over -200. We'll take a shot with the RL
PICK - TEX RL (-100)
PITT @ STL
STL trails SF by 1 game for the final NL wildcard spot, while PITT's playing out the string.
Starting Pitchers
Edge STL
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Pirates
|
1.33
|
3.42
|
3.94
|
4.18
|
28
|
20
|
51
|
18
|
73.9%
|
77.40%
|
0.244
|
0.295
|
Cardinals
|
1.22
|
3.54
|
3.70
|
3.92
|
25
|
21
|
37
|
15
|
71.2%
|
74.70%
|
0.223
|
0.272
|
Edge STL small
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
-8.7
|
13
|
|
100
|
9
|
|
0.320
|
13
|
|
20.2
|
8
|
Cardinals
|
2
|
8
|
|
103
|
5
|
|
0.327
|
6
|
|
19.5
|
11
|
Edge - STL small
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
13
|
13
|
Cardinals
|
-1
|
18
|
Edge - PITT small
In this game, STL has the slightly better bullpen and the slightly more potent offense, while PITT is the better defensive team. As for the starting pitchers, Tyler Glasnow had only allowed 2 runs in 7 innings since returning from a long stint on the DL, but he was unable to match that form in his last start even though Washington rested a majority of its regulars. He allowed 4 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5 across 3 innings. Glasnow still hasn't consistently matched the velocity that he showed in the minors. Carlos Martinez has essentially replicated his numbers from last year again this season, solidifying his status as one of the best young starting pitchers in baseball. He's 15- 9, with a 1.24 WHIP and a 3.15 ERA, with 7 quality starts in his last 10 outings. I'll go with the better starting pitcher and the team that needs the game.
PICK STL - 1st 5 Innings (-171) and ML (-173)
LAD @ SF
Starting Pitchers
Edge - SF
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Dodgers
|
1.13
|
3.21
|
3.40
|
3.85
|
31
|
20
|
47
|
21
|
69.1%
|
77.80%
|
0.212
|
0.268
|
Giants
|
1.26
|
3.69
|
3.86
|
4.11
|
25
|
24
|
42
|
30
|
58.3%
|
74.50%
|
0.240
|
0.288
|
Edge - LAD
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
-5
|
10
|
|
99
|
12
|
|
0.316
|
16
|
|
24.4
|
5
|
Giants
|
-31.1
|
18
|
|
96
|
16
|
|
0.311
|
22
|
|
24.9
|
4
|
Edge - LAD
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
55.2
|
3
|
Giants
|
82.3
|
2
|
Edge - SF
The Dodger hold most of the edges. However, there's two reasons to consider Sf. First, they need the game. The Dodgers don't. Second, Madison Bumgarner because there's no better big game pitchers. I willing to take the shot.
Pick - SF 1st 5 Innings (-125) and ML (-120)