For what it's worth, yesterday was another good day. We finished 8-3 record on our posted plays. That brings our August posted plays to 139-107-7.
KC - 1st 5 and ML W- W The Royals jumped on Wright early (5 in the 1st) and cruised. Kennedy gave up hits (9), but only 2 runs and the KC pen did the rest
DET - RL W Another strong out by Verlander, another loss by Nolasco
MIA - RL L Phelps didn't have it, and fell behind 4-2. MIA came back v SD pen but only won by 1
NYM - 1st 5 and ML W - W Not a great start but "the old fat guy" gets the W, and Morgan gives up 6 and loses again
CLEV/TEX - U 4.5 1st 5 and U 8 W - L It was 3-0 CLEV after 5, then CLEV bats unloaded
CHI WS - 1st 5 L It was 3-0 SEA after 5
SEA/CHI WS - U 4 1st 5 W
SEA - ML W Sale tosses CG QS with 14 Ks but allows 3, Felix goes 7.1 but only allows 1
We had 3 other games on our radar, but didn't post or bet them.
NYY - We love to bet against Gallardo, but didn't trust Cessa based on just 1 good start
CHI C - We liked CHI , but didn't trust Montgomery, so we passed
SF - The numbers said bet Samardzija, but how could anyone trust Samardzija or SF right now?
On to today's games
CHI Cubs @ LAD
Jason Hammel is having a very good season for the Cubs. He's 13-6 with 15 quality starts in his 24 outings (62.5%), just missing a 16th by a single out. He has allowed more than 3 runs just 4 times this season, and until allowing 10 (6 earned) to COL, at Coors, in his last outing, he hasn't allow more than 2 in his previous 7 starts.
20 yearl old rookie Julio Urias has started 11 games for the Dodgers this season. As a starter, he has posted a 3-2 record with 2 quality starts (18.2%). He has also twice allowed more than 4 earned runs (18.2%). The Dodgers are being exceedingly careful with Urias, as he is averaging just 4.2 innings per start. He has allowed 55 hits and 19 walks in his 51.1 innings as a started, which explains the high 1.44 WHIP and the 3.86 ERA as a starter. With that many base runners, things could have been much work. However, the 56 strikeouts have definitely bailed Urias out of a few jams.
Edge - CHI but close
Most of the numbers lean to Hammel, but Urias has the better metrics. Still, the toal body of work points to Hammel.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
1.25
|
3.74
|
3.64
|
3.86
|
16
|
16
|
28
|
15
|
65.1%
|
74.60%
|
0.216
|
0.269
|
Dodgers
|
1.12
|
3.26
|
3.49
|
3.92
|
24
|
16
|
37
|
18
|
67.3%
|
76.30%
|
0.210
|
0.262
|
Edge LAD
Both teams have good bullpens, and the numbers don't fully account for the Chapman acquisition, but the Dodgers till have the better pen.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
55.9
|
2
|
|
107
|
2
|
|
0.336
|
3
|
|
31.4
|
1
|
Dodgers
|
-6.4
|
11
|
|
99
|
12
|
|
0.316
|
15
|
|
20.7
|
6
|
Edge - CHI
The Dodgers have a good offense, but the Cubs have a great offense
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
79.3
|
1
|
Dodgers
|
50.7
|
3
|
Edge - NONE
Both of these teams have excellent defenses.
In this game, the Dodgers have one edge, a better bullpen. However, now that Chapman is firmly entrenched as the Cubs' closer, the gap between these two pen has narrowed. The Dodgers are still better but not by that much. The Cubs also have one edge, the better offense. The Dodgers offense is the best it's been in years, but it's still not as good as the Cubs. The fact that the game is being played at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium, will nillify some of the Cubs edge, but not all of it. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Each comes with concern. Urias is just 20 years old, with very little experience. He's definitely got the talent, but that 1.44 WHIP tells me that he's putting too many men on base, and that will catch up to him. He's also not going very deep into games. The Dodgers are being ultra protective of their prize rookie, so I don't expect him to go more than 6, and quite possibly less. As for Hammel, he's been very consistent and very good, but he has been blown up twice for 10 runs, this season. The first time was back on July 1, at the Mets. The second time was in his last start at Coors, against the Rockies. I can understand pitching poorly at Coors, but at the Mets? What troubles me is that both outings were on the road. Still, there were only two, and based on Hammel's full body of work, this season, I expect him to pitch very well in pitcher friend Dodger Stadium. I also expect Urias to make a few mistakes, and the Cubs to capitalize on them. Maybe Urias surprises me, but I'll take that chance. Besides, how often do you get to bet the Cubs as a dog?
PICK ML 1st 5 Innings (+118) and ML(+120)
KC @ BOS
Danny Duffy is having an unbelievably great season for KC. He's11-1 with 13 quality starts in his 19 outing as a starter (68.4%), including 11 of his last 12. He's allowed more than 4 earned runs just twice all season. Duffy has been on an incredible roll in his past 10 starts, in which he has 9 quality starts, a 0.94 ERA, a 2.12 WHIP, 68 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 72 innings over that streak and has surrendered just 4 home runs.
David Price is having a good, but not a great, season for BOS. He's 12-8, with 17 quality starts in his 27 outings (62.9%), including his last 3. He has allowed more than 4 earned runs in 8 starts (29.6%), including twice in his last 10. Price is having his worst season since his 1st full season in the majors, but may finally be turning the corner. Although the ratios aren't where they usually are, he still trails only Chris Archer and Justin Verlander in strikeouts among AL pitchers.
Edge - KC small
Duffy is having the better season, but the metrics say Price is close.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Royals
|
1.22
|
3.12
|
3.58
|
3.88
|
23
|
13
|
32
|
12
|
72.7%
|
79.90%
|
0.234
|
0.289
|
Red Sox
|
1.31
|
3.87
|
3.66
|
4.13
|
18
|
22
|
33
|
14
|
70.2%
|
73.30%
|
0.236
|
0.302
|
Edge - KC
Both teams have good bullpens, but KC is the better of the two.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
-75.5
|
27
|
|
88
|
27
|
|
0.306
|
25
|
|
10.1
|
23
|
Red Sox
|
94.9
|
1
|
|
115
|
1
|
|
0.351
|
1
|
|
27
|
2
|
Edge - BOS
No question here. BOS has the vastly superior offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
19.2
|
11
|
Red Sox
|
4.2
|
17
|
Edge KC
In this game, BOS has only one clear edge. They absolutely have the much better offense, and if this game becomes a slugfest, KC won't be able to keep up. That being said, KC has a couple of decent edges themselves. BOS has a decent bullpen, but the KC bullpen is really good, and definitely the better of the two units. KC is stronger defensively as well. And when we get to the two starting pitchers, KC probably has a small edge here as well. Price is still very good but Duffy's been even better.
PICK - KC ML 1st 5 Innings (+149), ML (+150) UNDER 4.5 1st 5 Innings (-120) and UNDER 6 (-110)
SEA @ CHI WS
Ariel Miranda has made 3 starts for SEA, without receiving a decision. He has 1 quality start, and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his starts. Miranda has allowed 8 hits, and 8 earned runs, in 16.2 innings, with 12 strikeouts and 6 walks. He's gone at least 5 innings in each start and 6 in 1. While the numbers aren't great, they also aren't bad.
Jose Quintana should be suing the White Sox offense for non support. He's only 10-9with 19 quality starts in his 25 outings (76%), including his last 6 and 8 of his last 9. In his last start, the White Sox actually scored 4 runs for him, as he held OAK to just 2, to notch is 10th win. In the start before that, he held CLEV to just 2 earned runs over 6 innings in a 3-1 loss. More often than not, that's been the case, as Quintana just can't catch a break. Two starts before that, he tossed 6.2 innings allowing 7 hits and 1 run, but received a no decision at MINN, and in the start before that, against the Tigers, he tossed 6.2 innings of 3 hit shutout ball, and again got a no decision. He has held opponents to 1 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 9 starts, and 2 or less in his last 7 . The White Sox have scored just 11 runs in Quintana's 9 losses. Quintana has allowed more than 3 runs just 5 times this season. Quintana's been very good, and incredibly consistent all season.
Edge - CHI WS
Bullpen
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mariners
|
1.23
|
3.63
|
3.38
|
3.82
|
20
|
21
|
41
|
21
|
66.1%
|
77.90%
|
0.229
|
0.286
|
White Sox
|
1.44
|
3.72
|
4.18
|
4.36
|
21
|
17
|
37
|
24
|
60.7%
|
75.60%
|
0.249
|
0.307
|
Edge - SEA
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
18.2
|
5
|
|
106
|
4
|
|
0.324
|
10
|
|
15.6
|
13
|
White Sox
|
-68.6
|
25
|
|
90
|
23
|
|
0.308
|
24
|
|
7.6
|
28
|
Edge - SEA
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
-33.1
|
28
|
White Sox
|
-22.3
|
26
|
Edge - NONE
They're both weak defensively
PICK - CHI WS ML 1st 5 Innings(-143) UNDER 4.5 1st 5 (+110) and UNDER 9 (100)
PITT @ MIL
Heralded rookie, Jameson Taillon, has now started 12 games for the Pirates. He's only 3-3, but with 10 quality starts (83.3%), including his last 8. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in any of his starts. Although Taillon is considered a power pitcher, his control has been the surprisingly outstanding aspect of his game over his hot streak. He has issued just 10 walks over 74 innings (1.22 BB/9) and struck out 60 batters. Jameson Taillon is real deal.
Jimmy Nelson is not having a good season for MIL. He's just 7-13, with 12 quality starts in his 26 outings (46.2%). He also has 7 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs 26.9%), 6 of which were at least 5 earned runs, and 5 of which were 6 earned runs. What's even worse is that Nelson's performance has deteriorated significantly over the 2nd half of his season to date. In his first 11 starts, he produced a 5-3 record, a 1.17 WHIP, a 3.38 ERA, with 8 quality starts in 72 innings. However in his last 15 starts, he's posted a 2-10 record, a 1.78 WHIP, a 5.57 ERA, and just 4 quality starts in 76 innings.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Pirates
|
1.32
|
3.40
|
4.05
|
4.31
|
21
|
14
|
42
|
14
|
75.0%
|
76.90%
|
0.242
|
0.291
|
Brewers
|
1.39
|
3.82
|
4.05
|
4.37
|
16
|
19
|
36
|
14
|
72.0%
|
76.20%
|
0.254
|
0.304
|
Edge - PITT small
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
-21.1
|
16
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.316
|
15
|
|
14.8
|
14
|
Brewers
|
-49
|
22
|
|
90
|
23
|
|
0.316
|
15
|
|
9.3
|
26
|
Edge - PITT
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
3.9
|
18
|
Brewers
|
-6.2
|
21
|
Edge - PITT small
In this game PITT has every edge. Most of the edges are small, a little better bullpen, a little better offense, and a little better defense. There is, however, one big edge for PITT and that is at starting pitcher. Taillon has performed incredibly well - 10 quality starts in his first 12 outings!. Jimmy Nelson by contrast is having a terrible season, and he's gotten worse as the year has progressed.
PICK - PITT ML 1st 5 Innings (-148) and ML (-145)
LAA @ DET
Brett Oberholzer has been used exclusively out of the bullpen with both PHIL and the Angels this season. He was a starter with HTN between 2013-2015, where he started 42 games with very mediocre results. The numbers below are based on his 3 seasons with HTN.
Michael Fulmer is having a very good season for the Tigers. He's 10-4, with 12 quality starts in his 20 outings (60%), including 7 of his last 9. Fulmer has allowed more than 3 earned run just 4 times all season (20%), and just twice since May 15. Fulmer has only started 5 games at home, he's 2-1, with a 1.91 WHIP, a 2.63 ERA, and 4 quality starts.
Edge - DET
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Angels
|
1.29
|
3.91
|
4.11
|
4.46
|
17
|
18
|
20
|
16
|
55.6%
|
74.50%
|
0.249
|
0.286
|
Tigers
|
1.36
|
4.31
|
3.86
|
4.12
|
19
|
17
|
38
|
14
|
73.1%
|
71.00%
|
0.263
|
0.313
|
Edge - DET
This is closer, but DET has the stronger pen with better metrics.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Angels
|
-6.4
|
14
|
|
101
|
9
|
|
0.315
|
20
|
|
15.9
|
11
|
Tigers
|
-3.8
|
12
|
|
101
|
9
|
|
0.324
|
9
|
|
12.2
|
20
|
Edge - DET slight
This one's very close, as we have two good offenses. DET ranks slightly higher.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Angels
|
9.7
|
14
|
Tigers
|
-30.9
|
27
|
Edge - LAA
The Tigers are still a lousy defensive team. The Angels are singificantly better.
In this game, the Angels have a defensive edge, but that's about it. Their offense isn't bad, but DET's is a little better. Neither team has a great bullpen, but DET's is clearly the better of the two. And, when we look at the two starting pitchers, it's a complete mismatch. Oberholzer wasn't very good in HTN and I doubt he'll be any better here. Fulmer, is coming off a beating from the Red Sox, but he's having a very good season and I fully expect a bounce back performance here. Obviously, the oddsmakers think so as well, as the ML is pushing -200, which is expensive, but we can still get the RL at plus $
PICK - DET RL (+103)
CLEV @ TEX
Carlos Carrasco is having a pretty good season for CLEV. He's only 9-6, but with 13quality starts in his 20 outings (65%), including 3 of his last 4 and 6 of his last 8. He's only allowed more than 3 earned runs 4 times this season (15%). Since returning from the DL in June, Carrasco has a produced a 7-4 record, a 1.03 WHIP, a 3.26 ERA, a 104:25 K:BB rate and 11 quality starts in his 16 outings. Carrasco has also been much better on the road, posting a 6-3 record, a 0.771 WHIP, a 1.74 ERA, and 8 quality starts in his 10 road outings.
I haven't bet much, either for or against A. J. Griffin. I consider him not good enough to bet on, and not bad enough to bet against. He was pitching very impressively in his first 5 starts this season. He was 3-0 with a 1.13 WHIP, a 2.32 ERA and 4 quality starts. He allowed 3 runs or less in all 5 and 2 or less in 4 of them. He has to leave his 6th start with stiffness in his throwing shoulder, and was immediately placed on the DL. Since returning at the end of June, Griffin has posted a 2-3 record, a 1.31 WHIP and a 499 ERA with no quality starts in his 12 outings.. He hasn't been really awful, he just hasn't been very good either. Most notably, he has yet to throw 6 full innings in any of those 9 starts. However, there is some reason for optimism. In 3 of his last 5 starts, he pitched 5.2 inning in each, allowing 3 twice and 2 runs once. Of course he also allowed 11 in the other two (5 and 6)
Edge - CLEV
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
1.28
|
3.53
|
3.74
|
3.93
|
19
|
17
|
27
|
11
|
71.1%
|
75.40%
|
0.235
|
0.289
|
Rangers
|
1.41
|
4.78
|
4.03
|
4.26
|
30
|
19
|
43
|
15
|
74.1%
|
71.60%
|
0.269
|
0.307
|
Edge - CLEV
The TEX pen is probably undervalued, as the acqusition of Jeffress has made it better, but CLEV also improved by acquiring Miller. CLEV is still better.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
56.5
|
2
|
|
107
|
2
|
|
0.331
|
4
|
|
24
|
3
|
Rangers
|
-31.2
|
19
|
|
94
|
19
|
|
0.322
|
12
|
|
13.9
|
15
|
Edge CLEV
Tex definitely improved their offense at the break by adding Lucroy and Beltran, but CLEV still has the better offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
21.4
|
9
|
Rangers
|
7.8
|
15
|
Edge - CLEV
Bothe teams have good defenses, but CLEV rates higher.
In this game, CLEV has most of the edges, the better bullpen, offense and defense. TEX has improved substantially in all these areas since the trading deadline. In fact, probably, no team has improved more, but CLEV still deserves the edges. They'r ejust not as big as they were before the deadline. CLEV has a clear edge at starting pitcher with Carlos Carrasco. A. J. Griffin hasn't been very effective since returning from the DL in June. Coupled with Carrasco dominance on the road.
PICK - VLEV - ML1st 5 (-135), ML (-145) and RL (+125)