As I work, Mike Napoli gave the Indians a 2-0 lead - the same Napoli that regardless of what team he's on seems to do nothing when we're behind them and everything when we're not. Life must go on.
Reds/Braves: It's been my experience, and I don't have stats to back this up - but home teams in day get-away games seem to win more often than not. Which Harrell do we get, the one that shut down the Cubs or the one that was crucified by Colorado. If history is any indicator (it usually is) then he had his one good season in 2012 and it's tough to back him and/or the Braves. Descalfani is easier to get behind, but with that pen I don't know about -190 easy. Weather is warm with a negligible breeze, and we often think "over" in this park - but I have to wait for lineups - and "over" and "Atlanta" probably don't go in the same sentence.
Cubs/Mets: At 43, Colon continues to dazzle unless he's playing the Nationals - and in fact on July 2nd beat the Cubs 4-3 at home. That's usually a sign that we'd got the other way in a recent rematch. Zobrist and Heyward have almost half the at-bats the Cubs have against him, but they have hit him hard. I usually look to fade Hendricks, seeing as how he's perhaps the Cubs' weakest link in the rotation - but the fact remains he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs but once since the middle of April - he has to have a little extra motivation since he hasn't seen the Mets since they beat him in the post-season last year. I'm not enamored with the Cubs bullpen, so I like the F5 better, but either way can't fade that "revenge" thing from last October. Clearly this could change based on what happens Tuesday night, however.
Twins/Tigers: The easy way out is to just take Verlander, but as I type the Twins have a 6-0 lead in the 7th on Tuesday night. When the Tigers don't hit, they don't win. Being a division rival, many of the Twins have significant exposure to JV - much of it in their favor. Santana is no stranger to the Tigers, either, and he's been hit a bit by several of them. The ones you'd worry about beating you - Miggy, Kinsler, and Victor Martinez. Going back to that "home team in day games" thing, I'd simply have to take the Tigers, but I think I'd take the pen out of it and go F5 there - and honestly they're probably going to beg and get "over" money, and daytime "overs" can be hard to come by - it's been my experience.
Cleveland/Kansas City: On Tuesday night there was simply a ton of reverse line movement towards Kansas City, and as I type Napoli has already given the Indians a 2-0 lead. Napoli who does NOTHING when I bet on the Indians. Yes, the anger is coming out of my fingers. Carrasco had perhaps his worst two outings of the season (or close) against the Royals, one of which was coming off the DL, which you'd expect. Looking up and down the Royals lineup - and given the momentum the Indians seem to be building on, it's tough not to think the Indians, and the under, may be the right side here. And when Eric Gonzalez, the Indians #9 hitter - leads off an inning with his first hit - you simply know you're screwed. I will completely bypass this one, since I've tried to fade Kennedy and his flyball rate all season, which hasn't been going well. He's given up a bomb in 11 of his last 12 games - but the one-run variety that just don't seem to effect the outcome. With that in mind the under is perhaps the best play.
Houston/Oakland: I actually expected Houston and Fister to open higher than -135 - seeing as how Fister can be a ground ball pitcher and we have a great big park - my first thought is "under". He has, however, already faced the A's three times this season, two of which were indeed very low scoring games. So, if it IS going to go over IMO it's got to be because of Houston scoring, not Oakland. That does look too simple, but collectively in 178 at bats the A's have yet to hit one out of the park against him. Houston did hit Mengden pretty hard right before the break, and obviously in Houston. Then Toronto hit him even harder last weekend, at home. That does make it tough to think about Oakland, but again - that opening number is either a complete gift or a real public disaster, because it will only climb. I don't see nine runs being scored here, and they've actually got 8.5 juiced to the over, so it COULD go to 9 but I doubt it closes that high.
White Sox/Seattle: Miguel Gonzalez has been all or nothing (as he was with Baltimore) and if you throw out two beatings by Toronto and one by the Tigers - he looks pretty decent. And in July so far, 20 innings with 14 hits allowed and a .183 batting average against - and he's been better on the road than at home. But, anytime Adam Lind is 8-18 off off someone I see the red flag. So, this could be the most watched day game in some time since Felix Hernandez is coming back, and reportedly with no limitations. That certainly is somewhat surprising. As "bad" as people think he was before the DL he still had a 1.22 WHIP which is highly respectable. Some of the Chicago's hitter have had success, while other have had none, which is really the case with most teams - the question is simply how it all plays out. I don't know if I'm ready to lay -180 on Felix, especially if he can't go more than seven innings with a maligned pen. So, Seattle F5 or nothing - and probably under as well F5 since even the Seattle starters are apt to me more interested in what Felix is doing til the game actually "starts" - after the feeling out process I expect.