2016 MLB Record:
48-42 for +6.04 Units
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#2: Philadelphia Phillies +100
Nola is my #3 ranked starter while Sanchez is 138th out of about 150 qualified pitchers. Tigers have never seen Nola before so the unfamiliarity-factor plus a huge disparity in current ability makes this one an easy play.
#3: Texas Rangers -114
In the month of May Hector Santiago has an xFIP of 6.1 while Colby Lewis is at 3.2. The odds are fair here but Rangers have an advantage based on ‘current form’ of their starter.
#4: San Diego Padres +125
Peavy isn’t as bad as his 8.2 ERA indicates (4.9 xFIP) but he’s not better than Shields (4.0 xFIP) regardless. Plus Shields is coming off a pretty strong performance against the Giants in his last start. I have this one at +110 SD so will back them in this spot.
#5: Arizona Diamondbacks +107
Rubby De La Rosa has been lights out against righties this year – 30% K-rate; 2.9 xFIP. Pittsburgh’s key hitters are mostly right-handers: McCutchen, Kang, Marte, Harrison. Coming off an extend ‘rest’ period, I like DLR’s chances of pitching well here. By comparison, Locke and his 5.1 SIERA (140th out of 150) will be facing a DBacks lineup that ranks top-5 against lefties. I love these key advantages in Arizona’s favor and expect them to get it done tonight.
Good Luck