For what it's worth, coming off a 4-0 sweep on Monday, we fully expected some regression and we got it last night, finishing 5-3.
Our losers were the Nationals, who blew a late lead for us, and turned a very good 6-2 record into a 5-3 and the TB Rays who not only got blown out by the Dodgers but also went way over the total. I think I'm going to have to reassess my thinking on the Rays. They could be worse than I expected. They just can't can't score. Their lack of O is putting too much pressure on their young pitchers to not make a mistake.
Fortunately, we cashed both the ML & RL with Jake Arrieta and the Cubbies. We also got a ML W and the under with Quintana and the White Sox v the Red Sox. Finally, Samardzija and the Giants gave us our 5th W v the hapless Reds. I was really disappointed by the Reds scratching Moscot late. I had a great write up on how truly bad Moscot really has been. I ended up deleting it right before posting. I also though Lamb gave CIN a better shot at the upset. It wouldn't have changed my pick, but it did make it a little riskier.
CHI Cubs @ PITT
The Cubs are only -134 with Jon Lester pitching? What am I missing here? Oddsmakers just don't usually make mistakes like that. Usually, good team with good pitchers on the hill are overvalued and you have to pay a premium to bet them. We need to look at this game very carefully.
Jon Lester is having a very good season. I think that I've said this before, but if it weren't for Jake Arreita, everyone would be raving about Lester. He's started 5 games. He's pitched at least 7 innings in four of them and 6 in the fifth. He's allowed one earned run in four of his five starts and three in the other. Wow! In this guy's worst start he pitched 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs! His WHIP is 0.93 and his ERA is 1,83. His advanced metrics (3.12 SIERA and 2.82 xFIP) aren't too shabby either. What's not to love about Jon Lester? Well, he still has problems throwing to 1st base and I don't understand why more teams don't bunt on him, early and often. That's the only weakness I can find with Jon Lester.
Lester will be opposed by Juan Nicasio, who's having a pretty good season himself. Yes, he only lasted 3 innings @ DET on April 12. And yes, the Tigers got to him for 6 hits and 4 earned runs. And yes, he walked more (5) than he struck out (4). And yes, he only went 5 @ ARIZ. And yes, he walked as many (4) and he struck out. But he still only allowed 2 earned runs, and both of these starts were on the road. In Nicasio's other 3 outings (all at home), he gave the Pirates 3 quality starts. That's 19 innings pitched at home with 10 hits and 4 earned runs allowed. He also only walked 3 and fanned 21. It's a small sample size, but it sure looks like Nicasio pitches a hell of a lot better at home. Maybe that's the reason this line is what it is. Nicasio's numbers aren't too shabby either. His WHIP's a 1.15 and his ERA's 3.33. His advanced metrics (3.78 SIERA and 3.66 xFIP) are also solid. Not as good as Lester's but good. His K rate is slightly 0.6%) better than Lester's, but he still walks too many (10.9%. 4/9). Of course most of them were on the road.
The bullpens are both good but the Cubs have the higher save rate (80% v 69%) and the better WHIP, ERA, metrics, BAA and BABIP.
The offenses are both potent and dangerous but the Cubs average 3/4 of a run more per game than the Pirates do.
The Pirates are a good baseball team and they will be very motivated to avoid being swept at home by a division rival. Hell, the Braves avoided a sweep and beat the Cubs just last week. The Braves! The Pirates are a good hitting team, so if Lester is "off his game" (he hasn't been yet this season but I suppose you might say he's due), they have the bats to take full advantage. And finally, Nicasio's been particularly good at home, if he pitches a good game, he could keep the Pirates in it. Yes, there is certainly reason for caution and quite possibly, the oddsmakers are right. But the Cubs are still favored and there's a good reason for that. Right now the Cubs look like the best team in baseball, Lester's pitching like an ace, and I still don't trust Nicasio. So we'll lay the small price
PICK - CHI Cubs ML( -134)
LAA @ MIL
Hector Santiago has actually pitched pretty well so far this season, not great, but not bad either. Santiago has started five dames for the Angels this season and he's posted 3 quality starts. In his 2 non quality starts were wasn't really shelled, he just allowed 4 earned runs in each. which means he kept his team in both games, a 4-2 loss @ TEX and a 4-4 W @ OAK. His WHIP (1.05) and ERA (3.34) are both very good and his advanced metrics (3.82 SIERA and 3.97 xFIP) while somewhat higher are still solid for a pitcher of Santiago's calibre.
Zach Davies has pretty much struggled all season. He's given up at least four runs in all three of his starts this year. He's only pitched 13.1 innings and he's allowed 23 hits, 7 walks and 13 earned runs. He's also given up two HRs. Davies' WHIP is over 2 (2.25) and his ERA's over closer to 9 than 8 (8.78). His advanced metrics (4.83 SIERA and 4.96 xFIP) aren't quite as bad as his ERA but still bad.
These two bullpens are pretty evenly matched. The Brewers have the better W-L record and slightly better strand rate, the Angels have the better WHIP, ERA, BAA and BABIP. The advanced metrics are very close.
On offense, the Brewers are a little better in most offensive categories and score about 3/4 of a run more than the Angels.
What this pick really comes down to is that I'm fading Zach Davies.
Pick - LAA ML (-124)
WASH @ KC
Stephen Strasburg is having an excellent season. He's started 5 games for the Nats and he's pitched at least 7 innings in the last 4. Also, 4 of his 5 outings have been quality starts. That's 36 total innings pitched and 9 earned runs allowed. He's also fanned 40 with 8 walks. Strasburg has a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA of 2.25. His advanced metrics (2.73 SIERA and 2.61 xFIP) are equally impressive, as are his 29.3% K rate and 23.4% K-BB rate.
I'm not a Kris Medlen believer. His supporters will tell you that Medlen has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his four starts this season. I will tell you that's only because the Royals have a really quick hook when Medlen (or Chris Young) starts. In three of his four starts he hasn't made it out of the 5th inning. In one, he couldn't make it out of the 4th. I will tell you that in that start (v BALT) he gave up 9 hits, 3 walks and 7 runs in 3.2 innings. I will also tell you that he walks too many batters -16 in 20.1 innings. I will tell you that in spite of allowing 2 or few earned runs in three of his four starts, he's got a 1.67 WHIP and a 4.87 ERA. I will also tell you that as bad as those numbers are, his advanced metrics (5.76 SIERA and 5.28 xFIP) are even worse.
On paper, both teams have excellent bullpens. Frankly, you'd have a hard time convincing me of that after watching Jonathan Papelbon turn a 6-4 W into a 7-6 L in less than an inning ( 5 hits and 3 runs in 0.2 IP). Why is this clown still being allowed to close? The Nats still have a slightly higher save % (in spite of Papelbon), a better WHIP, and better advanced metrics. The Royals do have the slightly better ERA and a marginally better strand rate. Both pens are usually very good. .
On offense, the Royals hit a little better (.254 v .234) but the Nats hit more homers (29 v 21) and score about 3/4 of a run more per game than the Royals. Neither offense looks particularly potent to me, but they do look pretty even to me, and last night's 2-0 Nats win did nothing to change my opinion, so we'll still call it a draw.
Let's see I'm left with two pretty evenly matched but mediocre offenses; two very good and very even bullpens, and a mjor mismatch at starting pitcher...
PIC K - WASH ML (-146)
SEA @ OAK
King Felix is having another superb year. He's started 5 games and posted 4 quality starts. He's allowed 3 earned runs in one start, 1 earned run in 2, and 0 in the other 2. That's 32.2 innings and a total of 5 earned runs. Hernandez has encountered two problems this season. First, he's walking too many batters (18). Over the last 3 years he's averaged 2.3 walks per 9 IP. This season that number is 4.96 per 9 IP. That's dangerous. If he continues to put that many men on base some of them will eventually score. The second problem is that the Mariners just don't score many runs for him. In Hernandez's 5 starts, the Mariners have scored a total of 9 runs. That doesn't leave Hernansez much margin for error. His WHIP (1.13) and ERA (1.38) are outstanding. His advanced metrics (4.53 SIERA and 4.17 xFIP) are rather high (probably because of his high walk rate) and certainly higher than we've come to expect from King Felix.
Sean Manaea made his MLB debut v HTN on April 29th. He pitched 5 innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 HR and w earned runs. He struck out 3 a walked 4. Manaea made a decent case for making the rotation in spring training, with 16 strikeouts in 14.1 innings, but his seven walks allowed convinced the As to send him to Triple-A Nashville. In his three starts for Nashville, he was lights out, allowing only 3 runs in 18 innings while fanning 21 batters and only walking 4. Here's one scouting report on Manaea: "His stuff ranged from below-average to plus from one game to the other, and it was often true of his secondary offerings from pitch to pitch. All together, his command looks like it’s going to max out around average, if it makes it that far. Concerns about his fluctuating velocity are well-founded, working 89-93 one game and 92-95 the next. His low-80s slider flashed plus in his earlier start, but looked like a 40 or 45 for most of the second. A changeup is used as a viable third pitch, though he telegraphs it with a slowed down arm and exaggerated pronation."
Both of these bullpen are very good. The Meriners have a 4% better strand rate, the slightly better WHIP(0.94 v 1.04) and advanced metrics (SIERA 2.66 v 3.14 and xFIP 3.15 v 3.54), better BAA (178 v 223) and better BABIP (231 v 278). The As have the higher Save Rate (10 of 11 v 7 of 10). They're both very good but I give a small edge to the Mariners.
Both of these offenses are below average. The A's hit slightly better 237 BA v 227). but the Mariners have the better OBP (313 v 289) and hit a few more HRs. The Mariners also average about 3/4 of a run more per game. Again, it's close but I give the edge to SEA.
We have 2 weak offenses, 2 strong bullpens and an elite starting pitcher facing a non elite rookie prospect making his 2nd MLB start.
PICK - SEA ML (-118)
DET @ CLEV
Anibal Sanchez is not having a very good season. He's made 5 starts and has yet to go 6 innings. He's pitched a total of 23.2 innings and allowed 16 earned runs on 28 hits and walked another 16. Sanchez did make some mechanical adjustments to his game prior to his last start in the hopes of halting his poor performances so far. He revived the hip turn in his delivery, but he struggled with his command, walking 7 while striking out 9, over 5.2 innings of three-hit ball. He only allowed 2 earned runs though , so there's still hope for better performances. Right now his WHIP a staggering 1.86 and his ERA is an equally staggering 6.08. His advanced metrics (4.66 SIERA and 4.90 xFIP) while not as high as his ERA, still say he hasn't pitched very well.
Corey Kluber has pitched pretty well for the Indians. He's started 5 games and posted quality starts in 3 of his last 4. He's also struck out 35 in 34 innings with only 7 walks. His WHIP is an xcellent 1.00, but his ERA's high at 4.24. His advanced metrics (2.93 SIERA and 3.02 xFIP) however, are stellar and tell me he's pitched much better than his ERA would indicate, as does his K rate (26.1%, 9.26 /9) and walk rate (3.7%, 1.32/9)..
Both bullpens are decent and pretty close. The Tigers have a slightly higher save rate (8 of 9 v 7 of 9) and a 2% higher strand rate (80% v 78%). The Tigers have the better ERA and advanced metrics, whiile the Indians have the lower BAA (.215 v .250) and lower BABIP (.246 v.300). I give a slight lean to DET but it's very slight.
Offensively, the Tigers are clearly superior. They rank in the top 10 in the major offensive categories (BA #7, OBP #10, SLG #8 and HRs #8), while CLEV ranks well below average in those categories (BA #19, OBP #29SLG #22 and HRs #13). DET also averages 4.79 runs per game v 4.18 for CLEV.
The Tigers have the better bats, but CLEV has the better pitcher. With Sanchez you're hoping that his mechanical adjustments will turn him into the pitcher has was a few years ago. Maybe they will but I'm not willing to bet on that anytime soon. I'll need to see a lot more from him before I put any money on him. Kluber's numbers tell me he is pitching very well, much better than his ERA says he is, and I trust the numbers. I also believe more often than not good pitching will shut down good hitting. So as much as it pains me to do so, I'll lay the steep price...
PICK - CLEV ML (-187)
ARIZ @ MIA
Just got back in no time for detailed analysis. Fernandez has better numbers especially advanced metrics. Plus just don't trust De La Rosa Especially on the road
PICK - MIA ML (-170)