2015 MLB Record
98 – 92 for +6.33 Units
**************************
#1: San Diego Padres -112
Aaron Nola is coming off an 8-inning 3-hit and 0-run outing while throwing 100-pitches, the most of his MLB career. Of course that came against Miami a team he was facing for the first time and ranked 30th against righties. The Padres don’t rank much better (22nd), but they are my 8th best offensive squad over the last 30-days. In addition, this is the 2nd time this month that they’ll be facing Nola. Expecting a drop-off from his performance on 08/23 is virtually a certainty. In addition, I don’t expect Nola to last as long either. He went 5, 6, 5, and 5 innings in his 4 starts before 08/23, and I would expect something similar tonight. This 20th ranked Philly BP is already extremely taxed (3 relievers appeared in 3 straight games, Giles (their closer) threw 30 pitches yesterday, and a few others appeared in 3 of the last 4 days), and I doubt their efficiency level will be very high. Kennedy has a 26% K-rate, 3.4 K/BB ratio, and 3.4 SIERA in the last 30-days. He’s pitching like a top-50 starter over this period and will be facing this young Philly lineup for the first time this year. A number of their hitters have never seen him before giving Kennedy an additional advantage. A lot of factors in San Diego’s favor here and I love their chances for a win, even though there’s no odds-value in our favor here – my model has this one at -105 Padres.
#2: Cincinnati Reds +110 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Both Iglesias and Jungmann have performed like top-40 starters this year and both have been top-20 over the last 30 days. But there’s one big difference here. While it’s Iglesias’ first time facing the Brewers in his career, Jungmann will see Cincy for the 2nd time in his. Jungmann’s best pitch is his ‘curveball’, which the Reds couldn’t hit well in the first meeting. But this Cincy lineup ranks 4th offensively against the pitch and I’m going second time around they’ll pick it up much better. Besides, Jungmann has been pretty inconsistent lately as his FB-rate has dropped from 56% in the first half to 38% in the 2nd half of the year. He’s been lucky to keep his HR/FB rate low, but all it takes is one swing of a bat in the first 5 innings to grab a win here. I like Cincy’s chances much better to get the job done. Because there’s a huge discrepancy between the bullpens for both teams, I’ll just play this one for the 1st 5 innings.
Good Luck