Coach Fletcher’s Thursday Free Pick
Thursday, August 27
4:05 pm New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies
The Pick New York Mets -160 The Greek
The Mets are in a pretty comfortable place with a decent lead in the NL East. They simply have to hold off the underachieving Washington Nationals. The Nats have shown a little life lately and if Scherzer returns to his normal form, they could pose a problem. But the Mets are rolling and have been taking care of business against teams with losing records.
The Pitchers
Phils – Aaron Harang 5-14, 4.67 era
The Mets have a sizeable edge in the pitching department. Harang’s last start was the best he has had in a long while but let’s face it, he was facing the Marlins. He was whacked in his previous 2 starts for 14 runs and 19 hits in 10 innings against the D-Backs and Brewers.
In his last 7 starts Harang has gone 1-5 with a 7.82 era. He’s given up 60 hits in his last 38 innings pitched. In his last 15 starts he is 2-11 with a 5.85 era. About the only positive thing he has going for him is that he is 3-7 with a 3.97 era at home. At night he is 3-10 with a 5.14 era.
Harang has gone 0-3 in August with an 8.18 era and his era is 7.00 after the All-Star break. Post All-Star batters have been tuning him up with a .325 batting average.
Harang is 6-7 vs the Mets with a 3.93 era.
Jon Niese, Mets
Niese was shellacked last out in Colorado, but Coors Field is another thing altogether. He has been ultra consistent for most of the season and in 14 starts since June he has come through with a dozen quality starts. He’s 8-9 on the season with a 3.80 era.
He’s comfortable pitching on the road with a 4-5 record and a 3.48 era. He is 7-7 at night with a 3.72 era. He’s 3-0 in August but his era blew up to 4.62, no doubt courtesy of the start at Coors where he gave up 7 runs in 5 1/3. Post All-Star he is allowing a .281 average against.
Niese is 10-6 vs the Phillies with a 2.77 era. In his last 3 starts (2014,2015,2105) he has given up 3 runs in 20 1/3 innings against the Phils.
The Bullpens
The pens have seen plenty of action lately for both teams. In winning the first 2 games of the series the Mets allowed 16 runs. The Phils allowed 31.
Mets – 3.27 road era Phils – 3.42 home era
The Hitters
Phillies Mets
- Score 3.8 runs per game Score 4.0 runs per game
- Score 4.2 runs per game home Score 3.9 runs per game road
- Score 3.7 runs per game vs LHP Score 4.1 runs per game vs RHP
- Score 5.6 runs per game last 7 Score 9.1 runs per game last 7
- Score 3.8 runs per game grass Score 4.1 runs per game grass
- Score 3.8 runs per game night Score 3.8 runs per game night
- Score 3.7 runs per game division Score 4.5 runs per game division
- -155 run differential Plus 47 run differential
- 8.52 hits per game home 8.66 runs per game road
- 0.90 HR per game home 0.94 HR per game road
- 2.38 BB per game home 2.60 BB per game road
- 7.10 K’s per game home 8.48 K’s per game road
- 13.07 total bases per game home 13.45 total bases per game road
- .254 batting avg home .248 batting avg road
- .390 slugging % home .385 slugging % road
- .306 on base % home .307 on base % road
There is not a lot of separation offensively in these teams. I tend to ignore the scoring in the last 7 games but the Mets have been hitting better. This will be a game won on the pitcher’s mound in my opinion. The run differential is enormous and runs scored in division is significant.
Odds and Ends
Philles Mets
- 70-56 50-77
- Allow 5 runs per game Allow 3. 6 runs per game
- 28-33 home 28-35 road
- 10-13 August 17-6 August
- 21-30 against division 33-17 against division
- 30-53 at night 44-44 at night
- 13-14 against LHP 54-44 against RHP
- 58-30 vs team w/losing record 24-45 vs team w/winning record
- Mets are 34-16 vs Phillies last 3 seasons
- Mets are 11-1 vs Phillies this season
- Mets are 19-6 vs Phillies in Philadelphia last 3 zeasons
- Mets are 5-1 vs Phillies in Philadelphia this season
Coach’s Conclusion:
The Odds and Ends indicate a powerful edge for the Mets in this game. I don’t like their poor road record but the Phillies aren’t the Cards or the Pirates. They are the Phillies. The head to head results are also about as good as they get. Niese is more than capable on the mound. I’m taking the Mets.
The Pick New York Mets -160 The Greek