The free ones are cashing - yesterdays' win on Boston. We cashed a great win on the PIRATES last night at a great price - and have fired a GOM today. This is the Readers' Digest version for those who asked. The Trilogy doesn't usually happen Saturdays because I have to spend a few hours with my wife on Fridays' for the other 160 or so hours in a week, and seeing as how it WAS her birthday yesterday - the options were limited.
910 ATL / 909 MiaOVER 7.5 Greek
Pirates-Dodgers: Often times when we get to this point it's about momentum and mindset more than stats (IMHO). I have to wonder if the Dodgers ALMOST winning doesn't effect their psyche today and I have always felt they are a fragile team. Anyone with Crawford on their roster is. Pirates should have tons of confidence, and just like last night, there is zero chance of taking LAD with that bullpen.
Giants-Cubs: The San Francisco bullpen has imploded for some time now, including yesterday. It's always tough to back Cain because he can walk the ballpark - but perhaps a reasonable price on the Cubs just because it's the "Giants" and "Cain" whose prior accomplishments carry some weight with bettors.
Nats-Rockies: We liked the Rockies here yesterday (but neglected to bet on them, ouch) and in truth I can't take Butler even though fading Strasburg is usually the right "value" thing to do, not unlike the weight Cain can carry. Without looking too terribly far, and knowing Butler doesn't pitch deep, I'd have to think this is a higher scoring game.
Cardinals-Brewers: Interesting that the overnight money is obviously on St. Louis, yet no distinct movement yet. I can't take the Brewers anymore, and although Peralta can occasionally throw a good game - this one has pass all over it.
Miami-Atlanta: We liked Teheran and the Braves here as well, but left it off (can't play them all, but that's another thread). This is also a "momentum" game for me. I know Koehler is better than Foltynewicz as a whole, but Atlanta is just playing fairly well right now so I cannot take the Fish as a road favorite. In a podcast right before the AS break I alluded to the fat that Atlanta would have some value going forward and they do.
Reds-Arizona: For the 1000th time I am swearing off anything to do with Cincinnati. Lost on them last night and am generally wrong with the Reds more often than not. Everyone has their kryptonite team, and that's mine.
Padres-Phillies: Gave the Phillies out here yesterday as well. I am not sure I could take them here, but there is no chance in hell I will lay -200 with the Padres. Phillies RL or nothing.
Jays-Yankees: We knew Price would be the betting favorite and most of the value is lost at -150 IMO. Nova is tough to get a read on - but Toronto has fared pretty well against him. If you made me bet this early game I THINK I would take Toronto F5, perhaps at -.5, but otherwise, since the Yankees see so much of Price and are at home, let the money force Toronto even higher and at some point take the New York RL.
Houston-Oakland: I tried to make a case for the A's here as I would almost any home underdog, but Chavez has been getting hit lately. I don't like this game, for some reason, it just "feels" bad and often times those "feelings" (things we talk about in therapy) are right.
Texas-Seattle: In my opinion it's time that perhaps the Rangers were over priced, and that's not something I thought I'd say this season. Perez off that game against the Giants with the sick line move which was right - makes him perhaps too good to be true. Montgomery is the better pitcher and although the Seattle bullpen sucks without Lowe, the Rangers' bullpen just sucks. I see this as a low scoring game early that gets broken open later.
Boston-Detroit: I am not sure I can go to the Red Sox well again, but yesterdays' win on them here was simply a matter of following the money and being a lemming. I tell it like it is. Simon is someone that I've tried to fade forever and he has his implosion game when I get on him, so I am very leery of him, and of course Miley. If you made me, Boston.
Twins-Indians: I do think the Twins score here, and think that Bauer is perhaps a bit over valued. Tons of pitches lately, but I am not quite to the point of being able to trust Santana. However, if we're talking about mindsets and momentum, it's the Twins who are clearly in a better place.
Orioles-Angels: I thought the Orioles would give a better accounting of themselves last night, but the floodgates really opened when Gausman couldn't find the strike zone. There are probably better games (games I have a better feel for) because Jiminez can go either way, and I guess from a "trust" standpoint it's the Angels and Richards, but -150 might be steep because we do know Baltimore is quite capable. However, yet another game where mindset plays in as the Orioles know they're pretty much done.
Mets-Rays: I am a little surprised the Mets are so cheap right now, but I have liked, bet on, and won, with Karns quite a bit. We were dead on right here yesterday in this game, thinking Rays F5 and Mets for the game, not trusting the Rays pen. Honestly, at this point I see that exact same scenario playing out, if for no other reason than the fact that Karns rarely pitches deep.