Coach Fletcher's Wednesday Free Pick
Wednesday, August 5
4:10 pm San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves
The Pick Giants/Braves OVER 7 -105 Pinnacle
Some Misconceptions Highlight This Over Play
I think the linemakers have done us a favor in this line. San Francisco is a notorious over team. Bumgarner is overrated by the linemakers every time he pitches. The Braves are better at scoring than people think. This over 7 looks very good to me.
The Pitchers
? Giants, Bumgarner - 11-6, 3.39 era
? Braves - Perez - 4-1, 3.71
? Bumgarner - 6-4, 4.50 era on road ; Perez - 2-0, 3.52 on road
? Bumgarner - 2-1, 3.79 last 3 ; Perez - 1-1, 9.00 era last 3 (a little misleading)
? Bumgarner - 4 - 2, 4.03 era last 7 ; Perez - 3-1, 5.03 era last 7
? Bumgarner - 8-5, 3.53 last 15 ; 4-1, 4.14 era last 15
? Bumgarner - 6-5, 3.30 era night ; Perez - 4-1, 4.22 era night
? Bumgarner - July - 3-2, 4.85 era ; Perez - July - 0-1, 18.69 era
? Bumgarner - Post All-Star - 2-1, 3.79 era ; Perez - 0-1, 18-69 era
? Bumgarner - 7 innings, 6 runs, 9 hits vs Texas in last start
? Perez - 4 1/3 innings, 9 hits, 9 runs vs Phillies in last start
? Bumgarner - 5-3, 3.13 era vs Braves ; Perez - 1-0, 0.00 era vs Giants
I'm keying on a few things in particular - Bumgarner had a horrible July. He appears to be getting worse as the season progresses. Perez came off a month on the disabled list for his last start. Giving up 9 runs in 4 1/3 isn't real promising. Both teams have average bullpens.
The Offense
My main concern here is Atlanta's poor showings against LHP. The Giants could get the over by themselves if Perez washes out again, but you can't count on that. I'm looking for 3-4 runs for the Braves here.
? Giants - 4.4 runs per game ; Braves - 3.7 runs per game
? Giants - give up 3.9 runs per game ; Braves - give up 4.3 runs per game
? Giants - 4.9 runs per game road ; Braves - 4.0 runs per game home
? Giants - 4.4 runs per game vs RHP ; Braves - 2.9 runs per game vs LHP
? Giants - 4.6 runs per game last 7 ; Braves - 3.4 runs per game last 7
? Giants - 4.4 runs per game grass ; Braves - 3.7 runs per game grass
? Giants - 4.5 runs per game night ; 3.7 runs per game night
Odds and Ends
? Giants - 52% games over ; Braves - 52% games over
? Giants - 54.7 over after win ; Braves - 42.9% over after a loss
? Giants - 66.7% over on road ; Braves - 55.8% over at home
? Giants - 53.3% over as favorite ; Braves - 51.8 over as underdog
? Giants - 78.9% as away favorite ; Braves - 50% over as home dog
? Giants - 49.4% over on no rest ; Braves - 50% over on no rest
? Giants - 56% over non division ; Braves - 44.6 over non division
Coach's Conclusion:
These numbers are scary. You know as well as I do when something looks this solid there has to be a catch. My major concern is that the Giants will rest Posey and a couple of others. They have a habit of doing that. But I've seen it before and it doesn't seem to mess with the totals. If this scares you, I would wait and see who, if anyone, the Giants choose to rest on Wednesday. They go to Chicago on Thursday. But, being in such a battle with the Dodgers for first place, you wonder if Bochy would risk resting multiple guys. It's a puzzler. I'm sticking with the OVER here Wednesday.
The Pick Giants/Braves over 7 -105 Pinnacle
Coach has hit 4 straight MLB Totals and has another 2* Total for Wednesday. Get it now and win alongside Coach!