Coach Fletcher’s Sunday Free Pick
Sunday, August 2
11:10 am New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
The Pick New York Yankees +115 Pinnacle
Yankees Just Score Runs
Ivan Nova goes for the Yankees after coming back from Tommy John surgery not too long ago. In his last start Nova asked out after 75 pitches with “arm fatigue”. We’ll see how far he goes today. Samardzija was on everybody’s list before the trading deadline. But the Pale Hose went on a run and evidently the Sox thought they’d be better off with him in the rotation. Samardzija is 4-1 with a 2.78 era and a 0.97 whip in his last 9 starts. But the bottom line is that the NYY just score too many runs. Despite the big resurgence of the White Sox, the Yanks are still outscoring them by a bundle. They had 13 in the first game of the series!
The Pitchers
Nova, NYY Samardzija, White Sox
- NYY - 3-3, 3.38 era ; White Sox – 8-5, 3.94 era
- NYY – 1-2, 4.24 era ; White Sox – 4-2, 2.86 era
- NYY – 2-1, 4.07 era last 3 ; White Sox – 2-1, 3.52 era last 3
- NYY – 3-3, 3.88 last 7 ; White Sox – 4-1, 2.67 era
- NYY – 43-25, 4.15 era career ; White Sox – 44-53, 3.87 career
- White Sox – 6-3, 3.79 era last 15
- White Sox – 8-4, 3.94 era last 30
- NYY – 2-2, 4.37 era in July ; White Sox – 3-1, 2.27 era in July
- NYY – 2-1, 2.33 era vs Yankees (2011-12)
- White Sox – 1-0, 0.00 era (2014)
Samardzija is pitching well enough now that the White Sox wanted to keep him for their playoff run. Nova is one of several players coming off Tommy John surgery. Some have fared well and others not so well. Nova has only gone 34 2/3 innings this season and complained about “arm fatigue” in his last start. This isn’t uncommon for pitchers coming off TJ and the Yankees will watch him carefully. Their pen can absorb an early exit and carry on.
The Offense
This has been 2 separate seasons for Chicago. After spending most of the season spinning their wheels with little or nothing to show for it, they suddenly started to hit. When that stops is anybody’s guess. One thing you don’t have to guess about is the Yankee offense. Of course they are shut down on occasion, but they generally put some serious runs on the board. When you see the year-long numbers, the NYY advantage is huge. They haven’t been bad lately either plating 42 runs in 4 games before Saturday’s contest.
NYY White Sox
- 4.9 runs per game ; 3.7 runs per game
- 4.5 runs per game on road ; 3.2 runs per game at home
- 4.7 runs per game vs RHP ; 3.9 vs RHP
- 9.0 runs per game last 7 ; 6.9 runs per game last 7
- 4.9 runs per game grass ; 3.7 runs per game grass
- 4.3 runs per game day ; 3.2 runs per game day
- 2nd in MLB runs per game ; 24th in MLB runs per game
- 6th in MLB hits per game ; 15th in MLB hits per game
- 2nd in HR per game ; 27th in HR per game
- 1st in MLB total bases per game ; 23rd in MLB total bases per game
- 7th in MLB batting avg ; 24th in MLB batting avg
- 3rd in MLB slugging % ; 24th in MLB slugging %
- 4th in MLB on base % ; 24th in MLB on base %
I know that these numbers are accurate but not necessarily valid considering the way the White Sox have come on. However, what the Sox have done has absolutely nothing to do with the NYY numbers. And they are just too strong in the NY direction.
Odds and Ends
NYY White Sox
- 58-44 ; 49-52
- 28-27 road ; 24-23 home
- 18-13 day ; 18-25 day
- 39-31 vs RHP ; 42-40 vs RHP
- 21-20 vs team w/losing record ; 27-31 vs team w/winning record
- 10-5 when playing team w/losing record 2nd half ; 5-7 when playing team w/winning record 2nd half
While these numbers indicate that the White Sox has been successful in some areas, the Yankees still dominate.
Coach’s Conclusion:
Before I cap a game I do many things. One of the things I do is quickly handicap a game in my head without any record to statistic. I get a feel for what I hope to see based on my memory and recollections. I must admit my original thought in this game was to play the White Sox, especially considering Samardzija’s success. But when I looked closer, I saw that the Yankees are like a tidal wave and they will come at you with numbers you can’t imagine. I knew the White Sox have been playing very well and scoring runs. Then I find out that they have been averaging 6.9 runs (very good) in their last 7 games while the NYY were averaging 9.00. I also noticed that 2 of Samardzija’s last 3 starts weren’t anything to write home about. He gave up 4 runs in 8 innings to Boston and 4 runs in 7 innings to KC. In between he gave up just 1 to Cleveland. But he also gave up 3 bombs in those 3 starts and the Yankees can exploit that. I don’t often change sides from my mental preview, but in this case, I think the change makes sense. Getting them at a plus is even better.
The Pick New York Yankees +115 Pinnacle