wiz12268 said:
Very good point about people who are stuck in their ways having to unlearn. The simple question I have is if you bet every favorite or dog in the NBA for the past 5 years blind, and were given two points better than the closing line on every bet, would you have made money? The answer is yes to both of them. I think that's answers the question
Youre wrong. If you had a database you would understand that. But since it PAST results one can easily back check it for themselves.
I will throw you a small bone. Since 2010 (5 years) there have been 6200 games with a lined favorite. Favs in those games 4335-1865 SU. ATS theyre 3064-3000-133 against closers. That is from a very generic database anyone can look up.
Getting THE VERY BEST POSSIBLE number that was EVER posted on the favorite (at just about every conceivable book out there) youre ATS results in those games would become 3209-2866-125. Some of those lines wouldnt have been -110 either. But for sake of 'ease' assume -110 anyway. Now scrap paper math shows it would be a profit getting them at the very best possible number they ever had posted on them. (not some make believe 2 points better than a closer bullshit because every game has probably a half dozen or more closers depending on what books you look at). Now if you go the other way you dont gain enough results to make it a profit betting dogs on the blind. Which isnt a surprise. NBA is a favorite heavy league.
[/quote]
You're still not getting it, but thanks for proving my point that there is a 1% spread between favs and dogs at post making them essentially a coin flip.
Please find where I said TAKING THE BEST NUMBER EVER AVAILABLE ON EVERY NBA GAME WOULD BLINDLY MAKE YOU MONEY. I never did, although that seems to be what you keep going after.
My entire point is the value gained in beating the closing number, not picking out a particular sport, going through a database and saying "This is dumb, even if I found the best number available in every game I would have barely broke even, so that wouldn't work".
So for all these people saying "Just pick the right side, the number is not a big deal", if you got two points either way you could blindly bet and be a winner.
Again, I'm not saying it's even possible to get a number two points better than the closer every time, my point is that the margin is that small, and every half point you get is meaningful.
If your rebuttal is that you don't have a database to determine if I'm right, you don't need a database to figure out you can gain 2.38% when each number has a push percentage of between 3.5 and 4%
If someone says they keep beating the close by a half point every night, that alone is not going to make enough of a difference because it isn't enough to overcome -110.