2015 MLB Record
70 – 58 for +12.10 Units
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#1: Toronto Blue Jays -125
Same logic as yesterday. White Sox are the worst offensive team against lefties while Toronto is the best. Two lefties on the mound today. Yesterday Toronto lost due to an inexcusable error by Reyes so hopefully today they play a cleaner game.
#2: OVER 7 TBB/KCR -110
The Royals won the first game 9-5 on a walk off grand slam. But because they held a 1-run lead late in the game, KC used all 3 of their key relievers: Herrera, Davis, and Holland. At the same time, Tampa tied the game in the 9th so trotted out their closer in Boxberger, in addition to using Jepsen and Teaford. McGee is pretty much the only key reliever available for tonight between both of these teams. Andriese typically doesn’t last long in games (6 innings pitched is his season-high and he’s only done that once), while Volquez could be pretty erratic, lacking game to game consistency at times. With neither BP being at full strength for the 2nd game of this double-header, I like the chances of the over coming through in this one, as I expect both teams to score 3 runs apiece.
#3: Miami Marlins +200
My model has this game at -153 Boston, which provides a ton of value on the road-team. Unless I’m totally missing something, this is one of the better plays of the day. Haren (#111) and Miley (#128) are similar pitchers. Miami has the #2 ranked BP compared to Boston’s #27 rank. In addition, the Marlins rank 4th defensively while Boston is 22nd. So the only difference is offensively where Miami is 27th while Boston is 14th on the season. But the reason why the Marlins’ offensive rank is so poor is because they’re 29th in the league offensively against right-handers. Against lefties, they’ve been the 4th best offensive team in the league. Wade Miley is a lefty. I know that Stanton had a lot to do with Miami’s offense but even without him, the stats indicate that Marlins are much more potent against lefties than most people realize. I expect a very close game in this one with Miami having more than 33% chance of winning this game than the current odds indicate.
Good Luck