Won the free one with the Yankees on Friday, bringing our Free Play record to 20-5 (80%) - here's most of Saturday and we'll post a free one when we get to that point.
970 BOS (-140) Pinnacle vs 969 HOU
Nationals-Giants: How much longer can we fade Strasburg - that's the question. The Nationals are 11-6 against LHP's this season - so maybe at -110 or whatever at home, we can think about it. Bumgarner has thrown a ton of pitches (he usually does). Straburg has had a couple of good games, but against the Phillies and Braves, two weak offenses, and he DID throw a season-high 113 pitches and give up a ton of flyball outs to the Phillies. The Giants pen has been uncharacteristically bad recently, while the Nationals pen ha over achieved - Both pitchers can hit - so maybe the over is in play - or at least the F5.
St. Louis-San Diego: I totally get the Martinez IS that much better than Despaigne - however -180 is a bit much to pay for a team that's struggling to hit and whose bullpen has been used quite a bit lately. I can't find a good reason at this point to take the Padres, however - since the Cardinals have seen Despaigne once. This one is sneaky - because I think we'll see the Padres pen sooner rather than later (Despaigne doesn't pitch deep) and there's just enough evidence to think the Padres score SOME - so at 7 I could consider the over, and if it stays at 7.5 I might have to use the Cardinals in a ML parlay somewhere, or not at all.
Brewers-Reds: I thought Josh Smith played for the Atlanta Hawks for nine years. This Josh Smith isn't backable (I know that's not a word) because he just took 109 pitches to get through five innings against the Mets and gave up a dozen flyball outs. Nelson has been feast or famine so the key to this game is trying to ascertain which Nelson takes the mound. In six games in June be allowed a .301 BAA - by far his worst month yet. The Reds have seen him and even Billy Hamilton has three hits against him - and Hamilton doesn't have three hits against many pitchers. Maybe the over here if the pens are at all used on Friday. Tough to take either side with any amount of conviction at this point.
Phillies-Atlanta: Alex Wood can be a pitcher I can get behind in certain situations - usually at home where the bigger park can hold his flyball outs. But, he has yet to register a win at Turner Field this season and the Phillies, in limited exposure, have hit him reasonably well. Limited exposure, but that may be enough to give them confidence here. Corriea had that one lambasting at the Yankees, but throw that one out and he's been as good as anyone else the Phillies have trotted out. If the pens are used Friday, I can see a ton of hits and scoring chances here - and I lean Atlanta and over simply because the Braves are hitting .290 as a team this season w/RISP.
Miami-Cubs: Tough to get behind Cosart after being out a month with vertigo stuff. He's has one start that went "reasonable" against the Dodgers, but I'd worry about fatigue for sure, meaning any Miami bet would probably be relying on their at times troublesome bullpen. Roach has had all of one start and was brutalized in St. Louis - so that would be a tough sell as well. Given the choice of the lesser of two evils, the Fish - but if the weather and the umpire are right it could be an over, although my guess is the number will take that into consideration. Maybe at 8 it'd be doable - assuming neutral type weather.
Houston-Boston: McHugh just shut down both the Yankees and the Angels, and pitched reasonably well at Coors before that - so I'm not sure that given the limited exposure to him that the Red Sox have that Houston isn't at least a F5 bet. Buchholz hasn't given up a HR since May 21st, but at home opposing hitters bat over .300 against him. He was 4-0 in June, but all year (career) he seems to give up the hits and get the timely out(s) at the right time, living on the edge. Not a ton of exposure for the Astros to Buchholz - but enough IMO to make them a viable bet, again, at least F5 and clearly dependent on Fridays' game.
Baltimore-White Sox: I'm not sure if Samardzija is a gift at -115 or that's asking for trouble. He's been "better" of late but three straight high-pitch count games has me concerned. The last time he did that he was crushed by Texas. I knew he wouldn't be the same in the AL without having a pitcher batting every two or three innings. Baltimore's had some success in limited at bats. but taking the Orioles means taking Tillman, who'd been a train wreck til he shut down the Indians, but throwing 110 pitches in doing so. I AM big on pitch counts unless it's someone that ALWAYS throws 7-8 innings and 110 pitches. I'd have to think this ends up a high scoring game, or at least it has the potential to if the weather and umpire are cooperative.