Play on Game #915/916 Ny Yankees/Toronto OVER the TOTAL of 8.5 (7:05 PM EST)
I like this game to go OVER with Sabathia and Buerhle on the rubber. Sabathia has a 5.40 ERA on the season. He faced Toronto earlier this season and the score was 6-3 after he gave up 8 hits and 5 runs. CC is coming off a game vs. the Red Sox where he might have gotten overworked throwing 110 pitches. CC just does not have the velocity anymore and I think Toronto will be able to get some runners on base and score runs.
Toronto is leading the AL in runs scored at 5.3 rpg on the season. They lead the AL in SLG% vs. left handed pitchers at .469. I will also note that the Yankees are #2 in SLG% in the AL vs. lefties at .458. So we have two offenses that both hit the ball good vs. left handed pitchers.
Buerhle takes the rubber for the Blue Jays and he has a 6.75 ERA on the season and the OVER is 4-1 in his 5 starts. Buerhle has gotten tagged for 36 hits in 23.2 IP with only 10 K's in his 5 starts. I feel that both pitchers will get dinged around tonight.
Looking at CC's and Buerhle's last 10 combined starts in this matchup, there has been at least 9 or more runs scored in 8 of the 10 games. Buerhle has not made it past the 6th inning in his past 5 starts vs. the Yankees. Toronto's bullpen is not the greatest either. The OVER is 9-1 in Buerhle's last 10 home starts and the OVER is 10-4 in Sabathia's last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take the OVER tonight.