Good Afternoon PreGamers!
Monday Bases - 3 Plays
Philadelphia Phillies / Atlanta Braves OVER 7 ~ I handicapped this total at 8 yesterday and I’m really pleased the books have come slightly under that. Aaron Harang has been Philadelphia’s best starting pitcher so far in 2015 as he currently sports a 2.51 ERA in 5 starts. A more detailed analysis into his numbers are staggering, in 2 starts at ‘Home’, the righty is 1-0 in 14 2/3 IP and has not allowed a single ER. In comparison, Harang is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 3 starts away from Citizens Bank Park. Opposing line-ups are hitting Harang at a rate of 0.278 in those 3 starts. Alex Wood gets the nod the Atlanta and his numbers are in total contrast to hose of Harang, Wood has pitched to a 2.60 ERA in 3 starts away from Atlanta but a lofty 6.17 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 2 starts at Turner Field. The Braves hitters are just starting to warm up, combining for a 0.284 BA over their last 7 games whilst averaging 5.4 runs per game. In games when the total is set at 7 or less, the Phillies and Braves are a combined 11-4 OU in 2015.
Toronto Blue Jays - 120 ~ RA Dickey has allowed only 3 ER in his last 19 IP (3 Starts) against the Yankees and he gets another shot at them tonight. The Blue Jays are coming off a tough 10 game road trip which ended in Cleveland on Sunday, they went 3-7 but their offense has just started to find its productivity. They have tallied an average of 6.3 runs per game in their last 7 and will be relieved to be back home for Monday’s tilt against their AL East rival Yankees. Chase Whitley goes for the Yankees and will make his 2nd start of the year and was decent going 5 innings allowing just 1 ER to Tampa Bay. I envisage a lot tougher test for Whitley tonight as he returns to the ball park where he was rocked last season, allowing 8 ER in just 3 innings. With the betting market all over the Yankees, I believe (-120) is good value on the home side in this one.
San Diego Padres / San Francisco Giants OVER 6.5 ~ In 7 games when facing left handed starters, the Padres have shown no mercy in averaging 6.4 runs per game and a combined team BA of 0.310 against southpaws. The OU is 6-1 in those 7 games and they face Madison Bumgarner on Monday. Tyson Ross pitches for San Diego and has struggled with command in the early part of the season; he has issued 3.6 walks per outing whilst pitching to a 1.74 WHIP in 3 starts away from San Diego. The only 2 Giants games in 2105 with a total set less than 7 have been when they have faces Clayton Kershaw. I feel this total is at least a run to low, I will take the Over in this one.
GL
Jonathan Young