Analysis: My only hesitation is/was Hickox behind the plate. He's tends to be an under umpire and the Trop tends to be an under venue, but that's IMO why we can get a good number here. But, I think the players on the field will negate those things. In yesterdays' game, both teams had eight hits, a sign that they're swinging the bats. Between the two of them they only hit into one double play (the rally killer), had a guy thrown out at the plate, a guy picked off of first, and a runner thrown out trying to stretch a hit. And they still scored eight runs. The Rays used five relief pitchers and the Orioles four. I didn't understand why the Rays were initially favored here, and obviously now they're not - meaning they think Baltimore will score off of Karns. That move and the one to the under cannot (shouldn't) be correct, IMO. I do think Baltimore scores, though, since Karns just hasn't had a ton of big league experience. He's a strikeout pitcher but not a ground ball pitcher, so the Orioles should get their three runs here (a 3-3 game with a total of 7 is what we usually look for - meaning it's a push at worst). Chen is in his fourth year, and the Rays have seen tons of him - he gave up 23 bombs last season, 20 of them to right handed hitters. I thought that might be an issue, but the Rays will probably bat Guyer as the DH, and I thought that with Kiermaier in as a LHH that would cause me concern, but he's 2-5 off Chen with a HR. Not a huge sample, but he's not 0-5 with four K's. 13 different players had hits yesterday, so it wasn't just one guy - which is always important going forward. They both got timely hitting - going a combined 5-11 with runners in scoring position, another thing I look at quite a bit. Bottom line, unless Karns is a freak and Chen throws a three hit shutout, this one gets to 7 at some point. And again, the line move on the side says that Karns isn't a freak tonight. He CAN give up the long ball -s the Orioles COULD get there by themselves. We may follow later.
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