Take San Diego Padres (LeBlanc) -135 v Colorado Rockies (Smith) +125
A tale of two starters. Smith has just gotten shelled of late, giving up 10ER on 12H in his last 10IP v Arz, Fla, and Atl. He's already allowed 6HR over his five starts while issuing 15BB. Last start: 1IP, 6ER, 4H, 3BB, 0SO v Arz. Yup. We faded him. LeBlanc threw 6.1IP of shutout ball v Mil last start. His ERA for '10 is now at 0.52 as he has yielded just 1ER in 17.1IP v Arz, Cin, and Mil. If LeBlanc hadn't face lineups like those fo Arz and Mil, in particular, i might stay away, but w that on his early season resume, I am absolutely compelled to back the Padres.
Result: Smith (5IP, 1ER, 4H, 2SO, 5BB) pitched much better than he has been, albeit inefficiently. LeBlanc (6IP, 2ER, 7H, 4SO, 2BB) was quality once again and reliable, as noted above, against another solid offense. Ultimately, San Diego tied up the game in the 8th on a Jerry Hairston, Jr. sac fly after having failed to knot it up with golden opportunities in the 6th and 7th, then won it on a Chase Headley single in the bottom of the 9th. Final San Diego Padres 3 Colorado Rockies 2
***And with the Padres win, we register our fifth 3-0 day of the season. It's the first, however, since the first 10 days of the season, during which we had reeled off the first four such beting days. It also puts us on our second 6-0 run of the year. After a very tough hard luck period in between then and now, the earth has returned to its axis and the results are coming through. We had every confidence that it would, though it's never fun in the meantime. Now, to keep it going...***
On Tuesday we learned that Ernie Harwell passed, that there's a taser epidemic in Philly, that Arizona is capable of winning a 1-0 pitchers duel, that Stephen Strasburg is headed to Triple-A, and that Timmy Lincecum just mowed down another 13 batters against just 1 walk, putting his ratio for the year at 56-to-8. Unbelievable.
5/4
Too expensive to play the favorite, not enough data to support the dog:
Baltimore Orioles (Hernandez) +255 @ NY Yankees (Pettitte) -280
Hernandez gave up 2ER on 3H w 5BB over 5.1IP v Bos last Friday. Pettitte allowed 4ER in 6IP v ChiSox in his last appearance. in realtive terms, it was his worst performance of 2010. Pettitte is 26-6 v Bal w a 3.60 ERA. He's unbeaten in his past 8 starts against the O's and in his last 10 games overall. There is some buzz thatthis ballgame may pit Mark Hendrickson v Pettite. Either way, it's immaterial. There's no worthwhile play to be had on the Birds here.
Detroit Tigers (Porcello) +145 @ Minnesota Twins (Slowey) -155
The Tigers believe that Porcello may have found the sinker that made him great in '09. He induced 9 ground-ball outs over 5.1IP Friday v LAA, though he did give up 5ER on 8H. Slowey piched on short rest last time out v Cle. He allowed 3ER on 9H in 5IP w 6SO against 0BB. He'll be on full rest today. This one comes down to whether or not you're willing to believe that Porcello has turned the corner. Did the reported tweak to raise his delivery point take? I'm still skeptical enough to steer clear.
Chicago Cubs (Lilly) -150 @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Morton) +140
Lilly gave up 6ER on 7H in 5IP v Arz last start. The Dbacks reportedly thought that Lilly's velocity was down in that ballgame, but the Cubs brass believes it's just a function of his working into form after the late start to his season. Lilly had a 3.60 ERA in 3 starts v Pit in '09. Morton had his first quality start of the season last time out v LAD. He gave up 3ER on 6H in 6IP w 8SO against just 2BB. But, he has still served up 7HR in 19IP this season. Morton has a 10.22 ERA in 3 career starts v ChC. I feel about this Cubs/Pirates tilt as I did with yesterday's. The line doesn't provide enough reward on a Pittsburgh-backed win and the Cubbies are way too expensive.
LA Angels (Pineiro) +155 @ Boston Red Sox (Lackey) -165
Let's be honest. Pineiro has reverted back to his crapshoot form. In other words, we never know if his sinker is going to show up or not. We successfully backed him as a big dog v NYY earlier this season, but last outing, he gave up 9ER in just 3.1IP v Det, his second straight poor outing of the season after 3 straight quality starts. Lackey has given up 3ER or less in 4 of 5 starts. In 3 starts at Fenway this season, he has a 6.06 ERA. Opponents have a .307 BA v Lackey. Bottom line, if Pineiro was in any way reliable, I'd consider backing him. But there's no way I can do so in good conscience the way he has been going. On the other side, the Sox are too costly.
Milwaukee Brewers (Davis) +170 @ LA Dodgers (Billingsley) -180
Davis gave up 5ER over 4IP v SD on Thursday. He has a 3.51 career ERA in 12 starts v LAD. Billingsley is coming off 2 straight quality starts v Was and Pit. The Dodgers are way too expensive here and Milwaukee is tempting, but Billingsley's recent work keeps me off of it, despite the somewhat enticing number.
Too close to call and not enough bang for our buck either way:
Toronto Blue Jays (Morrow) +110 @ Cleveland Indians (Carmona) -120
Morrow has pitched 19 innings over his last 3 starts and has allowed only 5ER (0HR) w 25SO. Carmona took a step back in his last outing v Min, going 6 innings but allowing 6ER on 8H w 2BB against 2SO and 1WP. Absolute toss-up of a ballgame w a line that essentially reflects just that.
NY Mets (Niese) +115 @ Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) -125
Niese allowed just 1ER on 4H w 7SO against a mere 1BB in 7IP v Phi last time on the mound. Left-handed hitters have batted .190 against Niese thus far in 2010, albeit in 21AB. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are the two Cincy everyday players that hit from the left side of the plate. Cueto went five innings and allowed 2ER on 5H w 3SO in a rain-shortened ballgame v StL in his last appearance. This has been a nip/tuck series, as is, and I see no discernible value either way in this line.
Atlanta Braves (Hanson) -140 @ Washington Nationals (Atilano) +130
Hanson yielded just 2ER in 8IP in his most recent start v Hou. Last season v Was, Hanson was 2-0 w a 2.28 ERA in four starts, allowing just 1ER in 3 of those 4 ballgames. Atilano gave up just 2ER on 6H in 6IP v ChC on Wednesday. I'd jump all over Hanson in this matchup were it not for the fact that the Braves have the single worst road record in the NL at 3-11 (only Baltimore's is worse in MLB at 3-12) and that they're hitting .228 over the course of their current 8 game road losing streak, scoring just 17 total runs over that span. Just can't back that at -140.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Lopez) -105 @ Houston Astros (Myers) -105
Lopez allowed 2ER in 6IP v ChC last time on the hill. He had given up 6ER on 10H in his previous start v Phi. Myers has gone at least 6IP in all 5 of his starts this season. He's cominig off a quality start v Atl in which he went 7IP and allowed just 3ER on 6H. But the potential of the Dbacks offense evens out any perceived pitching edge for the Astros. Very much a coin flip of a ballgame.
Kansas City Royals (Bannister) +125 @ Chicago White Sox (Garcia) -135
Bannister has 4 quality performances in 5 starts this season. last time on he mound, he held TB to 1ER on 2H in 7IP. 13 of the 21 outs recorded by Bannister were via the ground ball. However, Bannister has a career 7.61ERA v ChiSox and a lifetime 8.14ERA at US Cellular Field. Garcia gave up 4ER on 5H in 6IP v NYY in his last start. He has a career 6.03ERA v KC. I just don't have enough conviction either way to consider a play on this one.
Colorado Rockies (Cook) +105 @ San Diego Padres (Richard) -115
On the road this season, Cook has a 8.79 ERA and opponents have a .344 BA against him. But, he's 6-1 w a 1.60 ERA in 9 career starts at SD. Richard tossed 6 scoreless innings v Mil in his last outing. He has 23 SO and 13 BB in 30 IP this season. If I could tell you which Aaron Cook shows up, I might play this one. But since I can't do that, I choose to stay away.
Tampa Bay Rays (Garza) -110 @ Seattle Mariners (Lee) +100
What a matchup. Garza is 4-for-5 in quality outings in '10, and is coming off a 6IP, 1ER, 5H, 9SO, 2BB performance v KC. He has a 9.17 ERA in 17.2IP lifetime v Sea. Lee was phenomenal in his debut v Tex, going 7 shutout innings and yielding just 3H w 8SO and 0BB while not allowing a runner past first base. Wow. I prefer to sit back and enjoy this one as a spectator rather than try to figure out which side is going to eke out a winning hit.
The Official Plays:
Take Texas Rangers (Lewis) -130 @ Oakland Athletics (Cahill) +120
Lewis threw 9 innings of 3-hit scoreless ball last time on the hill v Cliff Lee and the Mariners. He struck out 10 and issued just 1 free pass. He has 10 strikeouts in 3 of his 5 starts. Opponents are hitting .195 off Lewis (.209 by left-handed batters, .176 by right-handed batters). Opponents are just 3-for-26 off him w RiSP. Cahill gave up 6ER on 7H in 5IP in his season debut v Tor. After the game, he said that he couldn't find his sinker. Interesting. Cahill has had previous success v Tex, though, going 3-1 w a 2.45 ERA in four career starts. Despite that last stat, I am all about Texas here. In fact, I'm stunned that this line is this affordable.
Take St. Louis Cardinals (Penny) -115 @ Philadelphia Phillies (Kendrick) +105
Penny had his worst start of the year last time on the mound v Cin, but it was still a quality outing. He did walk 5 batters in 6IP, but, in fairness, weather conditions were very poor for that ballgame. Penny has a 1.71 ERA and just 1HR allowed in 21 career IP at Citizens Bank Park. Kendrick has a 7.61 ERA this season and probably wouldn't even be pitching if J.A. Happ were healthy enough to go. This line is just flat-out bursting with value. Grab the Cardinals. Quickly.
Take San Francisco Giants (Zito) -130 @ Florida Marlins (Robertson) +120
Zito has 5 straight quality starts and is coming off an 8 inning, 2ER, 5H performance v Col. He has a 0.68 ERA in his last 4 starts v Fla. Robertson is pitching on 6 days rest. In each of his last 2 starts v Col and SD, he has surrendered 5ER on 5H in 4IP. I might not have backed the Giants here but I like knowing that Hanley Ramirez is a lifetime 1-for-10 v Zito and that the always shaky Marlins' pen is there in case we need them.