Lloyd,
Well, I wouldn't call it insane.
The SDQL simply provides a very precise description of what has happened in the past. The handicapper has to decide whether the trend in past performance still has value.
Here's one way that I do it.
Let's say I have a very general MLB system that is 2000-1800 at an average line of +100 over the past ten seasons. What I do is follow the average LINE in this spot.
If the system is, say, 120-108 in 2014 at an average line of -112, I might suspect that the "sharps" have uncovered this inefficiency in the market and will temporarily downgrade this system while still keeping an eye on it.
OF COURSE the important question is "When the line moves from 51 to 57 does it still have value?" You seem to think that the SDQL can offer no insight to the answer whereas I think it can.
I think you are assuming that handicappers use the SDQL to find whatever they can and then blindly play anything that is, say, 15-0. I have never advocated this. The SDQL provides the intelligent handicapper a way to test their handicapping theories.
A good example is, "Should I play the OVER when a team has go over in five of their last seven games?"
The answer is, "You can do whatever you want, but do it knowing that over the past ten MLB seasons, there has been no value in playing the OVER in this situation."
Dr M.