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21+ point favorites since 1972 (8 games)

NFL
Thread Starter 21+ point favorites since 1972 (8 games)
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15274
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

8 games (since 1972) with a spread of at least 3 touchdowns.

Date | Favorite | Spread | location | Opponent | Score | ATS result for Favorite

12/5/1976 

Steelers

-26 

hosting

Bucs

Pittsburgh 42-0

W

11/25/2007 

Patriots

-24 

hosting

Eagles

New England 31-28

L

12/5/1993 

49ers

-24 

hosting

Bengals

San Francisco 21-8

L

10/11/1987 

49ers

-23 

hosting

Falcons

San Francisco 25-17

L

10/2/1977 

Cowboys

-23 

hosting

Bucs

Dallas 23-7

L

12/23/2007 

Patriots

-22 

hosting

Dolphins

New England 28-7

L

12/12/1976 

Patriots

-21 

AT

Bucs

New England 31-14

L

12/16/2007 

Patriots

-21 

hosting

Jets

Patriots 20-10

L

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shivaseven
Joined: 11/29/2011
Posts: 589
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But don't forget that Football Outsiders say this JAGS team is historically bad. Also, don't forget Manning is historically good right now, and were in an era where offenses can put up numbers in lightning fashion. It can't help the Jaguars cause that the Bronco's defense allowed 48 points last week and will be looking to get back on track. Also, consider that the already anemic JAGS offense have now lost both tackles through trade and injury. Hhmmmmm....

lvbettor
Joined: 10/13/2011
Posts: 658
Pro Draft Prospect
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Great info.  One thing I noticed was that the Favorite barely scored as many points as the spread.  That will not happen this weekend.  Broncos will score at least 40 and even if they give up 10 in garbage time, they still win by 30 and cover.  I know everyone is saying "bet JAX", but this may be the time to get on the fave.

SharkMan23
Joined: 06/11/2012
Posts: 4800
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

I don't get what past trends have to with the game that is being played this SUNDAY.......Those games will have no impact on this game coming up.......I was never really a trend capper but someone please correct me if im wrong

Proline 82
Joined: 09/22/2010
Posts: 1519
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Kansas City plays an early game Sunday vs Oakland. Probably a win; the Chiefs will be 6-0. Broncos will be motivated and cant' afford to relax vs. Jacksonville. Plus the combination of the fact that Denver's defense played poor last week, and Jack Del Rio is the former Jags head coach, will be plenty of motivation for the Broncos defense to be lights out. I also think Champ Baily returns to the lineup. Broncos win by 30. Bank on it

carlw722
Joined: 09/17/2013
Posts: 405
College Varsity
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"Plus the combination of the fact that Denver's defense played poor last week, and Jack Del Rio is the former Jags head coach..."

This is all you had to say.  Denver knows what the Jaguars are going to do before the Jaguars even know what they are going to do.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB2511169.441285.00
MLB1213048.00-321.00
NBA45044.44-150.00
NFL1517046.88-430.00
NHL12033.33-147.00
tomkins
Joined: 04/02/2011
Posts: 692
All American
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t seems to me that we will hear a lot about the big spreads not covering. But none other other big spread games were as lopsided as this game. The only chance of a backdoor  cover is that Den lets is backup QB play the 3rd/and or 4th qt. Don't listen to the bullshit take DEN.

"Don't spend your bankroll on the rent"

jharmon64
Joined: 12/16/2012
Posts: 8
Waterboy
Not Ranked

I see several games that 'appeared' t be as lopsided as this game.

wiz12268
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 175
College Recruit
Not Ranked

in cases like this past results have just about zero to do with what is happening now.

To get spreads like this you need a lot of public perception, which is why you dont see spreads over 20 very often because you need a really really really good team (according to most people or ESPN) facing a really really really bad team (again according to most people and ESPN).

But the spread is stupid, that more than anything is what the results show. Books could put up a lot more spreads of 21+ if they wanted to if they were in the 'prediction' business, but they arent. They look for a number that they think will take as much action as possible on each side. Obviously that isnt possible but in most cases it works out.

The fact Jax has a different QB and has a better offense than they did a couple weeks ago when they played Sea and were 'only' +19 makes this spread even dumber. Denver cant stop anyone, Jax can actually move the ball now, they cant stop anyone either. (thats why the tota has gone form 50.5 which is high anyway to 54, 55 at the Mirage)So if they dont turn the ball over 4 or 5 times, which they shouldnt without Gabbert in there they shouldnt really be more than a 14 pt dog in this game.

Obviously things happen but a lot has to happen IMO for them to lose by more than 4 TDs, which is what most people should have gotten Jax at. Line is now 26.5, I thought it would actually go lower before this and then get pushed back Sunday. By the way people are already talking in this thread I suspect it will.

No Limit
Joined: 10/19/2009
Posts: 50431
Rank NA
Top 10 Contributor

RJ_Bell
11/25/2007 

Patriots -24 hosting Eagles New England 31-28 L

First time I ever bet a dime on a football game, I knew there was no way the pats would cover that many against the birds.  Eagles defense was still halfway decent back then.  I was a nervous wreck till about halfway thru the 4th quarter when I knew it would be impossible for the pats to cover.

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